Standard Lines: Advanced River-play
Introduction
In this article
- When to bet? When to check?
- Call, raise or even fold?
- Why you have to bet/fold once in a while
At first glance, decisions on the river appear to be the easiest to make. You don't have to count odds & outs anymore. You don't have to think about probabilities of a draw hitting any longer. Concepts such as protection and semi-bluffs have suddenly become irrelevant. All possible information about cards and betting sequences is available to you and all you have to do is to determine which move would be the best.
In practice, this is a lot harder than you would initially assume. There are a multitude of possible lines and every single one can be optimal under certain circumstances. Leaks in your river-play can detract a considerable amount from your win rate; folds in the wrong spots can cause a lot of lost big pots and constant calls in situations where you should give up become very expensive, as well.
In this article, you will get to know which things to pay attention to in order to get to the decision with the highest expected value. As usual, the path to the correct decision leads past the analysis of the opponent's hand range.
First let us differentiate between two fundamentally different situations and establish an understanding for the criteria that play a role in making our decision:
- You're out of position or in position and the opponent checked to you. You have to decide: check or bet? Even though there are differences between oop and ip, the logic behind a river bet is the same.
- Someone bets and you have to decide: call, fold or raise?
Following this, we will take a closer look at particular lines you can play on the river and we will go through some examples to illustrate when you can use a certain line. Finally, you will be able to test your acquired knowledge in a quiz at the end of the article.
Your opponent's hand range
The difficulty in poker is the fact that you have to deal with incomplete information. The aim in every hand is to deduce the opposing hand as precisely as possible from the information available to you. Due to the limited availability of moves, it's usually only possible to put your opponent on a range of hands, which consists of many probable hands. The more precise your read on the opponent, the better you can make your decisions.
On the river, all information concerning your opponent's hand is available to you. The opponent made decisions pre-flop, on the flop and on the turn that provide information about his hand. Every decision made gives you new information and the possibility to refine his hand range. This information is the basis upon which your optimal decision on the river must be made.
This means for making a good decision on the river that it's crucial for you to have a good idea of your opponent's hand range. There are big differences in how far and how precisely you can limit your opponent's hand range. Both the accuracy of your reads and the course of action thus far play a role.
We will first explain how such a hand range analysis should look up to the river and what results it can deliver by proceeding to analyze three basic types:
- Tight range
- Wide range
- Polarized range
In some cases, the opponent's range on the river will include very few hands, allowing you to make very exact decisions.
Villain: 22/17/2.5/35 (typical reasonable TAG who doesn't bluff)
Preflop: Hero is BU with A
K
2 folds, CO raises, Hero 3-bets, 2 folds, CO calls.
Flop: 8, 2
, K
(6,5SB)
CO checks, Hero bets, CO raises, Hero calls.
Turn: A (5,25BB)
CO bets, Hero raises, CO 3-bets, Hero caps, CO calls.
River: 4 (9,25BB)
CO checks, Hero?
Pre-flop: after his pre-flop decision, you can already narrow down his range quite accurately. He open-raises from CO and doesn't cap your 3-bet. Following the established charts, this puts him on a range similar to: A7-AJ, A2s-AJs, KT-KQ,
K8s-KQs, QT-QJ, Q8s-QJs, JT, J8s-JTs, 78s-9Ts, 33-88.
Flop: he check-raises the flop. As this opponent rarely bluffs, you can get rid of the majority of his range. He will probably check-raise every middle pair and up, meaning: A8, A8s, KT-KQ, K8s-KQs, 88.
Only 88 and K8s have you beat at this moment. The plan is: call flop-raise, raise any turn for value.
Turn: Initially, his turn bet doesn't further reduce his range. A TAG will almost always bet the turn after check-raising the flop.
You raise, as laid out previously, regardless of the turn card, and you get a 3-bet. This move dramatically reduces villains hand range. It's pointless to 3-bet with a mere one pair hand. After this 3-bet, you can cut down his flop check-raising range to K8s, A8, A8s, A2s and 88.
This is a very small collection of hands, and you can easily find out whether you are ahead against this range and should cap - you are behind against three combinations: 88, 88 and 88.
While you are ahead against eight: K8, K8, A8, A8, A8, A8, A8, A8.
River: The villains check on the river usually doesn't further narrow his range because he will either check/call (with A8, K8) or check/raise (with 88). You can safely assume that worse hands will only call, but better ones will check/raise you.
This means you need an equity of 66% for a river bet, as you will only win one bet when you're ahead, but you will lose two in case you're behind. As you are ahead against 8 out of 11 combinations, equating to 73%, you can profitably bet for value (and make a crying call to a raise while expecting to lose most times).
What if the river brought the 8? In that case, you would be behind against five combinations (88, K8, A8, A8, A8) and not ahead of any. Against this range, you should simply check behind.
It's not possible to make such a detailed analysis during the hand, but you should still try it as far as possible. You can then verify your decision in an extensive analysis when reviewing the session.
In the example above, it was possible to reduce the hand to very few hands. In some other cases, such an analysis isn't possible at all and you will still be up against a huge range on the river, possibly up to 100%.
In the following hand, you are involved with a much bigger range that includes both made hands and bluffs.
Villain: 35/27/2.8/42 (LAG who attacks a lot of spots)
Preflop: Hero is BB with KQ
4 folds, SB raises, Hero 3-bets, SB calls.
Flop: 6, 9, J (6,5SB)
SB checks, Hero bets, SB raises, Hero calls.
Turn: 2 (5,25BB)
SB bets, Hero calls.
River: 9 (9,25BB)
SB bets, Hero?
Pre-flop: The opponent is aggressive pre-flop and will open-raise the majority of his hands. 80% are a realistic range here. The fact that he doesn't cap makes it possible to remove the upper 8% from his range.
Flop: As the opponent is loose-aggressive, he can check-raise this flop with a lot of hands. Any pair or better (6x, 9x, Jx, pocket) and any flush or straight draw (78, 8T, QT, 57, 58, 7T, 8Q, KT) are possible hands, as well as the occasional pure bluff.
Turn: The opponent will bet the turn with any hand that he check-raised on the flop, either for value or for fold equity. This bet doesn't limit his range at all and you can thus call, either because you're ahead or because you have a lot of outs.
River: Even the river bet doesn't really narrow down this opponent's range. He will barrel any bluff again in view of this scare card, while he will also bet any pair for value again due to the fact that you didn't show any strength. If you assume his range to be this loose, you can call profitably here again.
In some special cases, especially against good opponents, you are often up against polarized ranges. In those cases, only good value hands or good bluff hands, which are completely worthless, make up the range.
Villain: 30/25/2.8/38 (aggressive thinking TAG-LAG who attacks a lot of spots)
Preflop: Hero is BU with AT
3 folds, CO raises, Hero 3-bets, 2 folds, CO calls.
Flop: 6, 9, J (6,5SB)
CO checks, Hero bets, CO raises, Hero calls.
Turn: A (5,25BB)
CO bets, Hero raises, CO 3-bets, Hero calls.
River: 2 (9,25BB)
CO bets, Hero?
Preflop: This opponent will have a CO opening range of approximately 30%, of which you can remove the top 7% because he doesn't cap.
Flop: The opponent won't be attacking blindly, but he will check-raise a lot of flush or straight draws without showdown value next to every made hand. His hand range almost corresponds to the hand range in the wide range example, except for the fact that he will be aware of the fact that he has less fold equity on a draw-heavy board and will thus play weak draws or air aggressive less frequently.
Turn: The turn bet hardly narrows his range at all, as TAGs will usually not check the turn after check-raising the flop. The 3-bet modifies his range significantly however. Any average made hand falls through.
As you represent the ace (with a good kicker), there is no point in him 3-betting one-pair hands. His range becomes polarized at this precise moment. It's constituted solely of hands that beat top pair / good kicker and bluffs without showdown value, like 78s. The opponent could 3-bet these in the hope that you were only using the scare card to bluff or that you were counting on a free SD raise and he can bluff you off the better hand.
River: After his bet here, the range still corresponds to the polarized one, as, taking into account the big pot, he has to barrel every bluff again in order to get you off busted draws or other weak holdings.
This means that, on this river, you are up against a range that's made up entirely of strong made hands and complete bluffs.
It doesn't make sense to bet in case the opponent checks!
Check or bet
The first step, the analysis of the opponent's hand range, is the foundation of the next step: deducting the optimal line. There are a couple of things you have take into account.
As we mentioned earlier, there are generally two situations you have to consider separately:
- You have a choice between check or bet.
- You have a choice between fold, call or raise.
This chapter deals with the first situation. When should you check, when should you bet? You have the initiative and bet the turn. On the river, you have to decide whether you want to check or bet again. It also happens regularly that you have to make this decision without initiative on the river, either in the form of a possible donk-bet or when the opponent checked to you.
Disregarding of your position or the initiative, there are two questions that always help one in making the right decision between choosing to bet or to check. They are as follows:
- Are there enough weaker hands in the opponent's range that could call in the bet?
- Are there enough stronger hands in the opponent's range that could fold to the bet?
How much 'enough' is, depends on the pot size and your own position and will be illustrated later.
To verify this, it is necessary, as established earlier, to make assumptions on the opponent's hand range and the decision he will make on the river. One question is crucial here: do you have showdown value?
You will often have a hand that is too weak to get a call from an even weaker hand, but has enough showdown value to be ahead against some of the opponent's hands, like busted draws. With this kind of marginal hands you usually don't fulfill the two mentioned requirements and should thus check.
This means the only hands that come into consideration for a bet on the river are made hands that could be called by worse hands (depending on the situation: bottom pair and up), or hands that are without any showdown value when you want to get better (high card) hands to fold (depending on the situation: K high or worse).
It is rarely the case in fixed limit that you can bet high card hands for value, and just as seldom that you can bluff with a pair.
Villain: 40/10/1.5/40
Preflop: Hero is BB with Q9
4 folds, SB calls, Hero raises, SB calls.
Flop: 5, 9, T (4SB)
SB checks, Hero bets, SB calls.
Turn: 7 (3BB)
SB checks, Hero bets, SB calls.
River: 2 (5BB)
SB checks, Hero?
The opponent is loose both pre-flop and post-flop, and moderately aggressive. Looking at his PFR, you can assume he will raise about 20% of his hands from the SB. Even though you don't exactly know what he completes, his high VPIP is an indication of a rather wide range. After check/calling both the flop and the turn, you can be certain that he doesn't have a T, as he would advertise this at some point. His range on the river thus contains weak made hands (A high, pockets, 9x, 5x, 7x) and busted straight draws (QJ, Q8).
- Can worse hands call?
You can clearly answer with a 'Yes' here. As we are in a blind battle and the opponent has a high WTS, he will call any worse pair and often even A high. - Can better hands fold?
No way. No opponent would fold top pair on this river.
Condition one is verified. You can profitably bet for value here.
Villain: 40/10/1.5/40
Preflop: Hero is SB with 67
4 folds, Hero raises, BB calls.
Flop: 5, 8, T (4SB)
Hero bets, BB calls.
Turn: 3 (3BB)
Hero bets, BB calls.
River: A (5BB)
Hero?
The opponent is loose both pre- and post-flop, and moderately aggressive. You can assume that he will defend a majority of up to 100% of his range against a SB open-raise. As he only has a PFR of 10%, he will probably only 3-bet his premium hands, which you can therefore discard from his range. He is aggressive enough to raise a T or better the on the turn at the latest. His range on the river is thus made up of busted straight and flush draws, A high (top pair) and small pairs.
- Can worse hands call?
As you're on 7 high, of course not. - Can better hands fold?
This is indeed the case. The opponent can be on a couple of draws (J9, J7, QJ, Q9, 97, 96 and any flush draw that beats 76s) that didn't hit and which he has to fold. Even if he doesn't fold a pair, the bluff only has to work in one out of 6 cases in order to be +EV.
Condition 2 is verified. You can profitably bluff bet.
When exactly is a river bet profitable?
How often a worse hand has to call a value bet, as well as how often a better hand has to fold to a bluff bet, depends tremendously on whether you are in position or out of position.
It's simple in position. If more than 50% of the hands the opponent calls with are worse than yours, you should bet. This doesn't mean that 50% of the opponent's decisions have to be a call with a worse hand though. If he folds 7 out of 10 times, calls twice with a weaker hand and once with a stronger hand, your bet is +EV.
If the danger of a check/raise from a better hand is high, you need a slightly better hand in order to value bet profitably. If a check/raise is mostly a bluff, though, even a weaker hand becomes valid for a bet/call.
Out of position is more complex, as the hand isn't over in case you decide to check. The opponent could check behind better hands or bet worse hands that he would have folded to a bet from your side.
In general, you can say that the 50% rule doesn't count for oop. The percentage depends strongly on the situation.
If you assume your opponent will check behind all worse hands in case you check, but bet for value all better hands, it would be sufficient if the opponent called a worse hand with a probability of 1/(bets in the pot). If the opponent has a better hand, you would lose one bet, and you won't get a bet from a worse hand.
For instance, if the pot is 9 BB big before your bet on the river and the opponent calls better hands in 60% of the cases, calls worse hands in 20% of the cases and folds worse hands in 20% of the cases, you still have to bet.
Villain: TAG
Preflop: Hero is SB with KK
1 fold, MP raises, CO folds, BU 3-bets, Hero caps, BB folds, MP folds, BU calls.
Flop: 5, 4, A (11.5SB)
Hero bets, BU calls.
Turn: 4 (6.75BB)
Hero bets, BU calls.
River: 2 (8.75BB)
Hero?
If you check here, every worse hand that would have called a bet will check behind. These are hands like small pocket pairs or KQ, since the opponent can't expect you to fold a better hand or that you would call with a worse hand. You can also assume that he will bet any ace for value if you check. You will also not get raised often in case you bet - Ax plays wa/wb or raises on a previous street. A bluff raise doesn't make much sense in this spot.
Check/call is thus quite pointless. The question is how often you have to be called by a worse hand in order for a bet to have a higher expected value than a check/fold.
The pot on the river is 9.75 BB after your bet, and 10.75 BB in case the opponent calls. You invest 1 BB in order to win 10.75 BB. If the opponent thus has a worse hands in 1 out of every 10.75 times he calls, the bet is +EV.
To put it in another way: if only 9.3% of his calling range are hands worse than yours, a bet is better than a check/call or a check/fold here. This means you will make the most profit with this line, even if you get called by a better hand 9 out of 10 times. If less than 9% of his calling range are worse hands, check/fold is the line with the highest EV (meaning the lowest losses).
If you give him a river calling range of QQ, AJ-AQ, ATs-AQs+, you find an equity of 19%. He would have folded or raised other hands before the river, and in case of KK, it doesn't matter. In this extreme example, you should thus bet for value even though you are the clear underdog (supposing JJ wouldn't call).
In other situations, the balance shifts 180 degrees and you shouldn't make such a thin value bet. This is always the case when ...
- … there is a risk of being raised on the river by a better hand. You would then have to pay two bets for the showdown.
- … there is a good chance that the opponent will bet with a worse hand that he would fold to a bet from your side (bluff induce).
- … there is a good chance that the opponent will check a better hand behind. You will save one bet in this case.
In those situations, a check/call can have a higher EV than a bet, even though 50% of the calls from the opponent might be worse hands. Your bet might be +EV in general, but it would not be the line with the highest EV.
Villain: 50/15/1.3/40 (a typical 'I call if you bet, I bet if you check' fish)
Preflop: Hero is SB with Q 8
3 folds, BU calls, Hero raises, BB folds, BU calls.
Flop: 5, 8, T (5.5SB)
Hero bets, BU calls.
Turn: 3 (3.75BB)
Hero bets, BU calls.
River: 5 (5.75BB)
Hero?
This looks like a clear value bet at first glance, and this wouldn't be bad in this case, as you are ahead more often than you are behind and a couple of worse hands will indeed call you here. You should still decide for the check/call here, though, as you have the read that the opponent bets light, for both value and as bluff.
His range consists of the 8, the 5, small pocket pairs and a lot of busted straight and flush draws. With a PFR of 15, your opponent hardly ever has A high after his button limp. You can also assume he would have raised a top pair at some point during the hand.
Additionally, you have the read that the opponent likes betting when you check. He will thus bet any pair for value against A high, and it's also easily possible that he bluffs. So, if the opponent bets any worse made hand by himself anyway, you should rather check in order to get another bet from busted draws. This way, you also avoid paying two bets for a showdown in case the opponent has the 5.
Villain: 35/12/2.3/45
Preflop: Hero is SB with Q 8
4 folds, Hero raises, BB calls.
Flop: 5, 8, T (4SB)
Hero bets, BB calls.
Turn: 3 (3BB)
Hero bets, BB calls.
River: 5 (5BB)
Hero?
This opponent could easily have A high in his range. He could also have played a semi-bluff with draws before. Against a range like this, which contains a lot of hands with a little showdown value, and against an opponent that call a lot (high WTS), a bet on the river is clearly better than a check/call.
Call, raise or fold?
If the opponent has gotten active on his own, you should wonder whether your own hand is good enough to call a river bet or even raise, or whether you can just give it up.
The pot odds tell you how often you have to be ahead when you call. If the pot is 10 BB big after your call and you have to call one bet for the showdown, you have to be ahead in more than one out of 10 cases to render your call +EV.
Preflop: Hero is BB with KQ
4 folds, SB raises, Hero 3-bets, SB calls.
Flop: 6, 9, J (6,5SB)
SB checks, Hero bets, SB raises, Hero calls.
Turn: 2 (5,25BB)
SB bets, Hero calls.
River: A (7,25BB)
SB bets, Hero ?
The pot is 8.25BB big after villain's bet on the river and 9.25 BB after your call. If you win the hand in 1 out of 9.25 cases, the EV of the call is 0. This means that the call is +EV and thus profitable if you can show the better hand on the showdown in 1/9.25 = ~11% of all cases.
How do you know whether this is the case? You have to analyze the opponent's hand range and check whether you beat a sufficiently big part of these hands. At least 11% of his range has to be worse than your hand in order to call profitably (busted straight draws and pure bluffs).
After a range analysis, you'd consider the following hands as probable holdings for your opponent: Jx, 9x, two pair and higher, often pockets or 6x, a lot of flush draws and straight draws. He will also usually bet all these hands on the turn and on the river, for either value or fold equity.
His SB opening range should be about 70%. You can further remove the top 10%, as he didn't cap. Against this range, you have an equity of ~21.1% on the river, and thus a clear call.
This analysis requires the opponent to really bluff any busted draw on the river, though. If you think he could give up more often, the call gets closer. Had the river brought the 5, your equity would have sunk to ~8.9%, rendering a fold the correct decision.
As you don't have time to do Equilator analysis or the likes during the game, you should try to estimate these things as precisely as possible. Doing a detailed analysis in a session review also proves very useful.
In order to raise a bet on the river, you need a comparatively strong hand. This is due to the fact that you will often only win one more bet in case you're ahead and your opponent just calls. If your opponent has a stronger hand, however, he will mostly 3-bet and you will lose 2 more bets.
In other words, you risk losing two more bets in order to win only one additional bet. Because of this 1/2 ratio, a simplification would be to say you have to be ahead 66% of the time to raise the river profitably. This is of course only true if you plan on playing raise/call and not raise/fold.
This view isn't true under certain circumstances, however:
- If the opponent is capable of bluff-3-betting the river, you have to be ahead less often. This is however rarely the case on the lower limits.
- If the board is too scary or if your raise appears so strong to the opponent that he will rarely 3-bet a lot of stronger hands, the balance shifts more towards 50%.
- If the opponent has a lot of thin value bets in his range, which he will fold to a raise either way, you cannot raise profitably even if you are ahead in more than 66% of the cases; you will rarely win an additional bet here, but you will still lose two bets if he's on a strong hand.
A cap doesn't leave the door open for any similar 66% premises, as the opponent usually won't have the possibility to 5-bet. Seeing yourself in the lead 50% of the times is enough in that case.
In order to assess whether you're ahead with your own hand, you have to analyze the opponent's hand range after his river bet or raise yet again.
Villain: reasonable TAG
Hero: tight and solid image
Preflop: Hero is BB with KQ
4 folds, SB raises, Hero 3-bets, SB calls.
Flop: 6, 9, J (6SB)
SB checks, Hero bets, SB raises, Hero calls.
Turn: 9 (5BB)
SB bets, Hero calls.
River: K (7BB)
SB bets, Hero ?
On the river, your hand improves to top pair. As the opponent is aggressive, you don't want to play raise/fold with odds that would turn to 12:1 in that case. If the opponent bluffs, he will always fold to the raise. Even if he just makes a thin value bet, with 6x for instance, he will sometimes fold to the raise.
This means you won't always win an additional bet against a worse hand. If the opponent has a better hand, however, he will mostly 3-bet, as he can easily interpret your play as a K. This means you will have to be ahead 66% of the times against a made hand of the opponent in order to profitably play raise/call.
Taking into account a river card that completes a lot of draws, this is hardly probable. You should therefore just call. Against an opponent that never 3-bets a worse hand on the river, raise/fold would be the optimal line if you think you're ahead in at least one out of 2 cases.
The math here is simple:
EV(call) > 0, if EQ > 1 / pot
EQ is your equity against the opponent's range. Don't forget that you add the bet that has to be called by you to the pot here.
Example: the opponent bets and the pot is 9 BB now. If you call, the final pot will be 10 BB big.
EV(call) > 0, if EQ > 1 / 10 = 0.1 = 10%
This means you have to win in more than a tenth of the times to render a call +EV.
The pot will often be 5-10 big bets big on the river. This means you have to be able to estimate the opponent's range very well in order to fold a made hand and to be sure that you'll be behind, as you frequently only need to be ahead in 10-20% of the cases.
Preflop: Hero is BB with ?
4 folds, SB raises, Hero 3-bets, SB calls.
Flop: 6, 9, J (6,5SB)
SB checks, Hero bets, SB raises, Hero calls.
Turn: 2 (5,25BB)
SB bets, Hero calls.
River: 9 (7,25BB)
SB bets, Hero ?
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Possible actions in the hand
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The river lines compendium
In the following part, we will take a closer look at different river lines, with a special focus on the out of position game. The following lines will be treated:
- check/call
- check/fold (check behind)
- bet/fold
- bet/call
So far, we've only looked at the conditions for a check on the river in general. What's left is the question of when to call a bet from the opponent after checking the river. We'll talk about the line 'check/call with initiative' in particular. The case where the opponent is the aggressor was already dealt with in the previous chapter.
In order for the check/call to be the line with the highest EV, we have to make sure the two aforementioned conditions for a bet are not verified:
- Are there enough worse hands in his range that would call?
- Are there enough better hands in his range that would fold?
Check/call with initiative is therefore out of question for strong hands. You should value bet with these. At the same time, weak holdings are not fit for this line; you should either check/fold or bluff bet these.
This means that optimal hands for this range have a little showdown value - they are too weak to bet for value, but too strong to try and make other hands fold. They will still be ahead against some holdings from the opponent's range. Depending on the situation, this could often be the case with J-A high or bottom to middle pair.
Two factors are favorable for a check/call on the river:
- The opponent is aggressive, as he bluffs often
- The board allows for a lot of draws that didn't hit on the river
Due to the previously mentioned meaningful relative hand strength, a check/call is only good for catching bluffs. You thus check in the hope of inducing a bluff from the opponent with a worse hand which he would have folded to a bluff.
For this, it is generally helpful if the opponent is aggressive and bets often. The AF gives you insufficient information on this, though. A lot of opponents with a low AF seldom raise, but often bet trash when you check to them. In this case, table reads (notes) become important.
It's also important whether the opponent's hand range includes any hands that have absolutely no showdown value and could bluff. This is often the case when a lot of possible straight and/or flush draws busted on the river. Opponents, in particular those that don't play their draws aggressively, will often have a hopeless hand against which you can induce a bluff.
Preflop: Hero is SB with KQ
4 folds, Hero raises, BB calls.
Flop: 6, 8, 2 (4SB)
Hero bets, BB calls.
Turn: 3 (3BB)
Hero bets, BB calls.
River: 3 (5BB)
Hero checks, BB bets, Hero?
On the river, there usually isn't a worse hand that would call or a better hand that would fold, especially since even A high will often want to see the showdown. This means a bet is out of the question. A lot of draws were possible on this board though: OESDs, gutshots and two flush draws - and they all missed on the river. This means the opponent's range will include a huge number of these hands. If you have a read that the opponent is very passive, you can fold here, otherwise you should call for the 1:6 odds, especially since the opponent would normally check A high behind.
Preflop: Hero is SB with A4
4 folds, Hero raises, BB calls.
Flop: Q, 7, 2 (4SB)
Hero bets, BB calls.
Turn: 9 (3BB)
Hero bets, BB calls.
River: 3 (5BB)
Hero checks, Villain bets, Hero?
Again, the conditions for a bet on the river are not given. Should we check/call or check/fold? There are no draws possible on the flop, meaning it very probable that the opponent has a made hand after his call on the turn. His bet on the river is therefore usually a value bet and you have to opt for the check/fold line.
In which cases should you bet even though you think the opponent has a better hand then? This is always the case when you know, due to the board texture and/or because of your reads, that you won't be able to induce a bluff on the river, for instance for passive opponents or if there are no hands without showdown value in the opponent's range. In that case, the opponent will usually not bluff and you have to decide between a thin value bet and the check/fold line; if you checked, only better hands would bet.
Preflop: Hero is SB with JJ
1 fold, MP3 raises, 2 folds, Hero 3-bets, BB folds, MP3 calls.
Flop: A, 9, 2 (7SB)
Hero bets, MP3 calls.
Turn: 3 (4,5BB)
Hero bets, MP3 calls.
River: 3 (6,5BB)
Hero ?
On the river, the opponent can only have one out of 3 possible holdings: a pocket pair 44-99, the 9 or the ace which he plays wa/wb. He would have folded or raised any other hand on the flop or the turn, or he would have capped pre-flop.
This means that there is no point in check/calling. He will check a 9 behind and bet an ace for value. If you bet yourself, you will lose the same amount against the ace, but will probably win another bet against the 9.
Without initiative, you will often check/fold the river, for example when the draw didn't hit or when you abort a calldown because a card that greatly reduces your equity appears on the river. But when should you check/fold or check behind with the initiative, giving up your hand even though you were the aggressor on the turn?
First, you have to make sure a bet won't get you anywhere. Your own hand has to be too weak for a value bet and you should be able to exclude the possibility of the opponent calling with a worse hand.
You also have to be certain that better hands will hardly ever fold. If there are no or very few better hands in the opponent's range that could give up (like better busted draws), a bet is pointless.
If you are oop and made the decision to check, you have to ask yourself whether it would be profitable to call a bet from the opponent. Are there worse hands in his range than yours, i.e. busted draws, and would the opponent possibly bluff bet with them? If the opponent's tendencies and/or the boards don't allow you to assume this, you should check/fold on the river, even if you have the initiative.
It is very important to have this line in your repertoire. A lot of players lose a lot of money because they think they always have to bet on the river with initiative, or at least check/call there.
The check/fold or check behind is thus especially appropriate on boards where there were only few draws possible or when some draws hit on the river and you have to give the opponent credit for a made hand. You should consider this line in particular against weak and passive players, as they will rarely bluff when you check to them.
Next to absolute trash hands without any showdown value, it is also important to give up weak to medium made hands, especially in cases where the opponent's range and the development of the board make too many strong hands probable.
UTG: 50, 15, 0.8, 38
Preflop: Hero is SB with A2
UTG calls, 3 folds, Hero raises, 1 fold, UTG calls.
Flop: K, 7, 5 (5,5SB)
Hero bets, UTG calls.
Turn: 2 (3,25BB)
Hero bets, UTG calls.
River: 6 (5,25BB)
Hero checks, UTG bets, Hero folds.
Even though you get 6.25 for the call, you have a pair and the opponent didn't show any strength so far, so you should check/fold. The opponent has very few A high in his pre-flop range (VPIP/PFR) and won't bring these hands to the showdown either (WTS). This means he either has a pair or a straight draw after calling the turn. After hitting at least one pair on the river with all of these hands, you can expect to be behind in almost all cases. There is hardly any pair that will fold to a bet, either.
BB: 38 / 27 / 2,0 / 42
Preflop: Hero is BU with 89
3 folds, Hero raises, 1 fold, BB calls.
Flop: Q, 6, 2 (5,5SB)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB calls.
Turn: A (3,25BB)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB calls.
River: 6 (5,25BB)
BB checks, Hero checks.
After the LAG calls the turn in spite of the ace, you have to assume he at least has a pair on this dry board. As the river is a blank, you can't make the assumption that a pair will fold. The board doesn't offer room for any busted draws either, meaning a bet would be utterly pointless in this situation. Check behind definitely is the best line here.
It is certainly a leak to play bet/fold on the river very often. The pot is usually so big that you only have to be ahead occasionally in order to be able to profitably call a raise. But folding on the river after having raised as a bluff and being re-raised is not the only situation in which you should bet/fold on the river; sometimes it's also the optimal line to bet for value and then give up the hand to a raise.
This line has to be employed with caution. Never playing it, however, would mean giving your opponents too much value for their strong hands. So when is it appropriate?
In simple words every time you …
- … have a value bet.
- … but will almost always be behind against a raise from this certain opponent.
The line is very strong because you will often lose the same amount against better hands with the check/call line, but you deny the opponent the possibility to check worse hands behind. You will thus win one more bet when you're ahead, but you merely lose one bet when you are behind. The problem here is that you will lose a lot to just save one bet if you happen to actually fold the best hand. There are very few opponents that play a raise on the river as bluff, though, which turns it into a very good line if you have good reads.
A typical situation is given when the opponent is on a very polarized range between a small pair and a draw. You have a good 2nd pair or top pair and a lot of draws hit on the river. If you check/call here, the pairs will usually check behind and only the better hands will bet. If you decide to bet/fold however, you will win one extra bet against the lower pairs, but will still only lose one bet against the draw that hit.
As it is extremely expensive to fold the best hand in a big pot, you have to pay a lot of attention to not letting an opponent exploit this line with river bluff-raises.
BB: 25 / 19 / 2,2 / 39 or 40 / 14 / 1,2 / 40
Preflop: Hero is SB with JJ
4 folds, Hero raises, BB calls.
Flop: 8, 7, 3 (4 SB)
Hero bets, BB calls.
Turn: Q (2,5BB)
Hero bets, BB calls.
River: 9 (4,5BB)
Hero bets, BB raises, Hero folds.
On the river, you would miss out on a value bet against every pair if you decided to check/call. Even a TAG won't bet every weaker hand here. This means the value bet is mandatory in this spot. After the raise however, you have to realize you're behind. There is absolutely no plausible weaker made hand that the opponent would raise in this spot. You will only be ahead against a bluff.
As there are no draws that busted, the opponent would have to transform a pair or A high into a bluff. This certainly won't be the case in 1 out of 8 cases. There are also many hands in the villain's cold-calling range that improved. A lot of two pairs, straights and flushes are possible.
When to play bet/call on the river can be deduced from the previous lines: when your own hand is both strong enough to bet for value and to be ahead against the opponent's raising range often enough.
You always have to wonder here whether you are also ahead against plausible made hands from the opponent. If you will only beat a bluff, you can also fold a supposedly strong hand to a raise, as long as you don't think the opponent is capable of raising the river with air.
If, for instance, a weaker two pair than your hand, which is in your opponent's range, became possible on the river, you often can't get away from your own hand due to the pot size.
You have to keep in mind that you only have to be ahead with a probability of 1/(pot+1) after villain's raise in order to call profitably. This is the case very often, given the fact that the pot will often be around 10 BB, even in normal heads-up pots.
You also have to call a raise quite frequently due to image reasons; otherwise, you could, as warned previously, easily get exploited by river bluff raises and lose a lot of BB.
The question of whether the opponent can be representing a hand with his raise on the river is crucial. For example, the river card will often not even be in the opponent's range. Except for the rare cases where he delayed his raise, you will often be up against a bluff here, i.e. a busted draw.
BU: 40 / 18 / 1.5 / 44
Preflop: Hero is SB with JJ
3 folds, BU calls, Hero raises, 1 fold, BU calls.
Flop: Q, 7, 6 (5,5SB)
Hero bets, BU calls.
Turn: 3 (3,25BB)
Hero bets, BU calls.
River: A (5,25BB)
Hero bets, BU raises, Hero calls.
Against this loose opponent, you should bet the river for value. He will call any smaller pair. After he raises, you should ask yourself what he is trying to represent. Judging by his pre-flop stats, this opponent would raise any ace pre-flop. Delaying a queen until the river and then raising on an ace doesn't make sense. This means you definitely have to call here. He might have slow-played his monster, but he will certainly show you a worse hand in at least one out of 9 times.
Conclusion
Even though the die are already cast on the river and the decisions seem to be rather unspectacular, play on the river is varied and is anything but easy. You have to use your bets on the river diligently and in a focused way in order to achieve the best possible winning rate.
The omission of value bets and calls in wrong situations are common leaks that stop a lot of players from climbing the limits. In this article, we pointed out a lot of essential concepts for advanced players that help you to master your play on the river.
If you take these concepts to heart and apply them correctly, you will be well armed for the play on the river.
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