Short Stack Strategy: Advanced Pre-flop Play

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You've probably got used to it by now: you're dealt a playable hand but can't find it in the chart. So far you have learned to automatically fold these hands. This article will address whether this is always the right decision, or if you can make exceptions and play hands that aren't in the chart.

You will learn when to limp in and when you should raise with hands not found in the chart. You will also learn the basics of squeeze play.

Video: Advanced Short Stack Strategy: Pre-flop Equity
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	In this video our SSS coach Xarry2 talks about pre-flop equity. This video is highly recommended for players wanting to advance their knowledge of pre-flop play past the stage of the Starting Hands Chart. Watch the video "Pre-flop Equity" by Xarry2

Playing for equity

Equity is the real key to successful pre-flop play. Pay close attention to this section of the article. The following example should help you understand the concept of equity better.

Example:

You have AK and are facing two opponents, who each have two random cards. What is your equity?

The Equilator shows your equity is approximately 48%. Now assume you make a standard 4BB raise and both players (no matter what cards they have) call. How many BBs will you win on average?

There are now 12 BBs in the pot. You have 48% equity, which means 5.76 BBs belong to you. Every time you raise, you make a profit of: 5.76 BBs - 4 BBs = 1.76 BBs.

Of course the hand isn't over yet, but you will make even more profit if you play well after the flop.

Put yourself in the following situation: You have JJ and an opponent raises from an early position. The chart says re-raise and you go all-in.

You can risk your stack with JJ against opponents known for their loose raises, but is it the right decision against other opponents?

Raising an average player with JJ is certainly correct, but some opponents' ranges are so tight, that you won't be a favourite with JJ.

The next section will show you when to go all-in and how to determine your equity. As in the past, this article will require Elephant statistics, as well as knowledge and notes about your opponent.

Stick to the chart if he is an unknown. If not, you can determine when it would be profitable to re-raise, based on his raise range and your equity.

$100 NL Hold'em

Stacks Hero ($20)

Preflop: Hero is Button with T T
UTG raises to $4.00, 4 folds, Hero ???

• A) UTG: 10/5 (VPIP/ PFR in UTG)
• B) UTG: 20/10

Your opponent's range in Example A is roughly: TT+, AQs+, AQo+. Using the Equilator you see that with TT you have 40% equity against that range.

Your opponent's range is much larger in Example B: 77+, A9s+, KTs+, AJo+ and KQo. Your equity against that range is appr. 53%. You and the raiser are the only players left in the pot, meaning you each pay 50% of the total pot.

You would need at least 50% pot equity to play this hand. With 3 players in the pot you need 33%, with 4 players 25%, etc. This formula will play a key role in future decisions, because you can now respond to each opponent individually.

This rule of thumb doesn't apply to every single situation though. Your opponent won't call a re-raise with every raise. The final formula is a bit more complicated. First of all, you need to determine the percentage of calls he makes in his raise range. Then you work out the chances that he will fold to your raise. The sum gives you your exact EV:

FE = Fold equity
Pot₁ = Pot size before your reraise
Pot₂ = Total pot size if your opponent calls
Equity = Your chances of winning against his calling range
Costs = Size of your reraise

EV = FE * Pot₁ + (1-FE) * (Equity * Pot₂ - Costs)

 This is however not the only formula you need for poker. Fold equity also plays an important role. A re-raise can be +EV even if you theoretically have less than 50% equity, provided your opponent folds often enough.

The beginner section gave you a range for going all-in in response to a raise. Following the chart would have you making the right decisions on average, but the fact is that each opponent plays differently. Folding TT to a raise is the right decision against some players, whereas you would be losing value doing so against others.

Stats allow you to respond to each opponent individually and to adapt your all-in range accordingly. The important thing is having information on your opponent. You won't be able to play based on equity without stats. The following example will show you how to make the right decision.

$100 NL Hold'em

Stacks Hero ($20)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 9 9
4 folds, Hero raises to $4.00, 3 folds, SB raises to $20.00, BB folds, Hero ???

Here are your stats on the SB:

• A) SB: 15/10/5 (VPIP / PFR / 3-Bet)
• B) SB: 20/15/10

VPIP shows how often that player voluntarily invests in the pot. PFR shows how often he raises before the flop, and 3-bet shows how often he raises when exactly one raise was made ahead of him. This is also the stat required to make a decision in this example. Use the Equilator to determine your equity against your opponent's range.

Example A: Your opponent's 3-bet range is 5%, which would roughly consist of TT+, AQs+, AQo+. We see that we have app. 37% equity against this range with pocket nines. Is that enough to call?

The first thing you have to know is how much equity you need. Is the answer 50% because you are investing 50% of what goes into the pot? The answer is no. In fact, you need less. Reason: you've already invested money into the pot, so this money in the pot isn't yours any longer.

You have to calculate your pot odds to determine the equity needed to call. To do so you take the amount already in the pot and add the SB's raise.

Pot Odds 1:1.56 ($24 in the pot + $16 you must pay)

You can convert the odds to equity by adding both figures and dividing 100 by that number. For example: 1 + 1.56 = 2.56, 100 / 2,56 = 39. Your equity is therefore 39%.

This means you can call when you have at least 39% equity on your opponent's range. You have to fold this time, since you only have 37% and would lose money in the long run by calling.

Example B: Once again the pot odds are 1:1.56 and you need 39% equity to call. This time, however, your opponent's 3-bet range is at 10%, meaning anything from 77+, A9s+, KTs+, AJo+ to KQo. You have 48% equity against this range and can call his bet based on odds.

Make your own examples with other starting hands and opponent ranges, to practice using this formula.

Remember that opponents' ranges can differ from those produced by the Equilator. If you know this to be the case you have to make the right adjustments. Your opponent in Example B could, for example, have 66 instead of A9s. It's pretty impossible to calculate an exact range, which means you have to estimate.

When can you limp?

Are there hands you can profitably limp in with? You've probably asked yourself this question before. The beginner section teaches you to either raise or fold and never limp in. This is however not always the best decision.

Some hands are too weak to raise with, but they can be played profitably after the flop. Nevertheless, you should only limp in when someone has already limped in before you. Whenever you are first in, you continue to play raise or fold.

You limp in when you want to see the flop without paying much. You usually do so with a weak hand that could become a very strong hand.

You're hoping to win a big pot if you hit the flop. If not, you haven't invested much and can easily lay down your hand.

Always pay attention to the size of your stack. There is little sense in limping with only 16 BBs. You should have at least 17-17.5 BBs before you consider limping.

You should only limp in from a late position. Your goal is to have a cheap look at the flop. The more players playing after you, the more likely it is that one of them will raise and you will have to fold your hand.

Assume the players after you have a 10% PFR. Two players will raise after you 20% of the time. If you're in MP2 with five opponents left to play, you would end up folding to a raise 50% of the times you limp in, which isn't exactly very profitable.

The easiest hands to play after the flop are pocket pairs. There's one simple rule to follow: No Set, no Bet!

In other words, you only continue to invest when you hit a set, otherwise you play check/fold.

You can limp in with a pocket pair if one or more opponents have already limped in. If the limper or the blinds are set to make the showdown, you can limp in against a single opponent. Otherwise, there should be at least two opponents in the pot before you limp.

Aggression from players after you is also a key factor. If they have high PFR stats, there should be at least two players in the pot before you limp. Keep to this rule or you will often get raised out of the pot.

Suited connectors aren't as easy to play as pocket pairs. It's imperative that you know how to play draws after the flop before limping in with such a hand. If you have learned to do this, you can improve your win rate by playing suited connectors.

You can limp with a range from 54s to QJs (KQs is a RAISE). Remember, you must always have at least one limper in the hand before you limp in, otherwise there won't be enough players in the hand to pay you when you hit your card.

You can limp with QJs and some of the potential suited one gappers, when only one player has entered the hand. These hands also give you the chance of winning with top pair. However, if you there are aggressive opponents left to play after you, you should wait until more than two opponents limp in, or not limp in at all.

Suited one gappers are suited cards with a "gap" between them, like 97s. 96s would be a suited two gapper. You can limp from a late position with suited one gappers. However, only do so when there are at least 2 limpers in the hand before you (three would be better).

Aces with low suited kickers are even harder to play than suited connectors. You are usually only playing for a flush (draw) or a two pair/trips (usually trips with the kicker, not the ace). You shouldn't limp in with a suited ace, with less than three limpers already in the hand.

You'll usually win a small pot and lose a big one if your ace becomes a pair. Try to work out what your opponent is thinking: If he only raises with an ace and a good kicker, he will take down the big pots.

You won't lose your whole stack when you miss. Your opponent wins the small pots and loses the big ones when you hit. Make sure it doesn't happen the other way around.

When can you complete?

Completing from the SB is a similar situation; you do this with hands like pocket pairs, suited connectors and suited one gappers. Your goals remain the same, although you can complete with more hands than you can limp with, because you are paying a smaller price.

You can complete with a pocket pair once one other opponent has limped. You need at least one other limper to complete with suited face cards (you could win with top pair), and two other limpers to limp in with other suited connectors.

You can complete with Axs, but you will be playing a draw oop, which isn't easy. Two or three other players should have already limped in before you complete.

We will conclude with off-suited connectors: a marginal hand group that is rarely played. You need at least two other limpers before you can complete (four would be better). And remember, you need more players to limp in before you if you don't have a high card, as your chances of hitting top pair are close to zero.

Why do you need more limpers to complete than with suited connectors? Look at how often you hit a playable hand on the flop with suited connectors:

Two pair+: 3.49%
OESD: 10.10%
Flush draw: 10.13%

You will have a playable hand on 25% of all flops and a playable hand on appr. only 15% of all flops with off-suited connectors. Don't overplay off-suited connectors! You lose very little value by not playing them at all, compared to the risks you take when you do. Look back at these hands and see if you actually generate value by playing them. If not, don't allow them into your starting hand range.

When can you squeeze?

A squeeze, or squeeze play, is a bluff made in the first betting round. After one player raises and at least one other player calls, a heavy re-raise is made, called "a squeeze".

The thought behind this move is that the open raiser will find himself "squeezed" between you and the cold callers, not knowing how they will react. They, in turn, rarely have a hand strong enough to call with. You attack the dead money in the pot and, when it works according to plan, force all your opponents to fold.

$200 NL Hold'em

Stacks Hero ($40)

Preflop: Hero is Button with T T
3 folds, MP1 raises to $8.00, MP2 calls $8.00, 2 folds, Hero raises to $40.00, 4 folds

This is a simple example of squeeze play. MP1 raises and gets one cold call. Then you raise and force MP1 to make a tough decision. Should he call, raise or fold? MP2 will rarely have a hand strong enough to call your raise and will have to fold.

Sometimes the raiser will have a strong hand and call. Sometimes the cold caller will turn out to be slow playing with a big hand. If however this happens to work, you collect a lot of dead money.

As a short stack you are almost always committing yourself (or are already all-in) with a squeeze. Be careful when choosing your hands; bluff squeezes rarely deliver.

Your opponents will obviously fold in many cases; they would suffer heavy losses if they called every time. This gives you fold equity. Your opponents fold and you win the dead money.

You also have chances if you do get called. After all, in theory 32o wins 1 in 5 times against AA. Now you have the two most important aspects in determining the EV of a squeeze: fold equity and pot equity.

You can calculate the EV of a squeeze as follows:

FE = Fold equity
Pot = Pot size before squeeze
Equity = Your share of the pot if called
Total Pot = Pot size after a call
Costs = The money you invest

EV = FE * Pot + (1-FE) * (Equity * Total Pot - Costs)

Estimate the chances of Player 1 and Player 2 folding. This is your fold equity. Then estimate the chances of Player 1 calling and calculate your equity. This reverses when Player 1 folds and Player 2 calls. Use an average value in the formula, or add an additional term to the formula.

c1= Player 1 calls
c2= Player 2 calls

EV = FE * Pot + (c1) * (Equity * Total Pot - Costs) + (c2) * (Equity * Total Pot - Costs)

There's also a chance that both players will call, but allowing for this would require an even longer formula (that would be hard to calculate in time). This possibility can therefore be ignored.

For each additional player in the hand you can add a term to the formula. Squeezing is (as are all raises) a question of your opponents' ranges. You will hardly ever be able to profitably squeeze on pure fold equity as a short stack.

Playing with a double stack

You don't leave the table immediately after doubling up. You wait for the BB to make its way back to you. Until then, there are a number of opportunities and dangers to look out for.

You can theoretically play any of the hands in the chart. Depending on how solid your post-flop play is, you should add/remove some hands from your range. Make other small changes to your strategy, for example limp with middle pocket pairs like 77 or 88 instead of raising.

Your reaction doesn't change, but you have different pot odds. A reraise is also no longer a push, but a regular raise. Equity and the principle behind it stay the same.

These are the important points to keep in mind once you double up. Try to get a feeling for the game and practice using the formulas you've learned. And remember, the basic game doesn't change much just because you double up.

Conclusion

Understanding equity is the key to advanced post-flop play. Raises before or after you and opponents' stats give you information on possible hand ranges, allowing you to react accordingly.

Limping can be profitable, but be careful. Long term success depends on position and hand selection. The same counts when completing the SB.

Squeezing before the flop to win dead money (without a showdown, if possible) becomes an important part of the game. However, only squeeze with hands that have strong showdown value (or good chances of hitting) in case you get called.

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