Post-modern pre-flop mindset: Information and adaptation processes in NLHESH
Introduction
In this article
- The advantages and disadvantages of different playing styles
- The importance of information and table image
- Your frame of mind
By reading this article, you will expand your ability to reflect upon
and understand game dynamics specific to short-handed games. Mainly,
you will learn:
- The different styles of No-Limit and their format-specific theoretical advantages and disadvantages.
- The
importance of the information from a game-theory viewpoint, as well as
the evolutionary perspective as related to the adaptation processes
taking place at the table (in this context, with regards to the
evolution of different styles as well). - The relevance of table image and gear shifting.
- The attitude you bring when you sit at a table and should maintain when analysing hands.
Additionally, you will become more tilt/stress-resistant when playing
poker, due to a broader perspective after reading this article.
Introduction: "Come on, it's standard"
This is what Tom Dwan, a.k.a durrr, had to say
about his hand in the 2008 NBC National Heads-up Championship Duel
where he shoved with TT against Phil Hellmuth's AA in the third hand of
the game. After being sucked out, he couldn't resist making a few
sneering remarks about his opponent's questionable play and left the
table proud (the tricky “quick re-raise”) but broke.
Due to the poker boom during the last few years,
especially since 2003 (Moneymaker, a “regular accountant”, wins the
WSOP main event), many new, talented players have emerged and as a
side-effect of this boom, so have many poker schools.
The theorisation of poker is spreading, mainly in the variation
no-limit Texas Hold'em. As a result of media exposure on the web and TV
(advertising/broadcasts/TV-Shows/movies [e.g. Rounders]), the number of
normal and also good players is constantly on the rise.
With the rising number of players and the
accompanying rise in the quality of play from a theoretical
perspective, NLHE went from being a backyard poker game, where cowboys
and crooks were taking money off each other, to a game of math and
psychology where millions of people compete against each other.
The desire to play better poker always goes hand
in hand with the dream of big money. Especially the dream of easy
money, that can be made through mouse clicks from the comfort of home.
As this is not something every player can take for
granted, winning strategies and profitable game theory become
necessary. One rule that applies here is: the better the opponent, the
more complex the winning strategy. And this fosters developments, which
express themselves in the different styles of No-Limit Hold'em.
Different Styles
In many old-school poker books (e.g. “Super
System“ by Doyle Brunson), the style that is taught and promoted can
definitely be described as conservative (caution, rationality,
deliberation, security, calculation).
The two main defining qualities of this style are the limitation of
starting hands on the one side and the relatively large bet sizes on
the other. The conservative player who plays on the basis of equity or
rather a value-edge, knows the meaning of position and takes meta-game
factors such as table image and history (psychological aspects) into
consideration.
This style has its roots in the 50s and 60s from
the last century. Its profitability lies in (as at the time, poker was only played live: “backyard poker”) making use of the gap-concept and
the card-removal effect, the loose-passive play of bad players and the
psychological advantage of making large bets (keeping the equity-edge
in mind) to apply pressure on emotional, i.e. bad players.
About the special characteristics of this style:
Pre-flop:
- Tight open raising range (10-16%: 22+,
A2s+, ATo+, KJ+, K9s+, Q9s+, QJo, JTs; depending on position; noteworthy aspect: AQ in UTG almost always only suited, argument: position/playability) - Overlimp and cold-calls with sleeping monsters IP and OOP (8-10%: 22-JJ, A2s-A5s, ATs, 54s-KQs, 75s-KJs)
- Very tight 3-bets (2-3%: QQ+ AKo, AQs; noteworthy aspect: against BU-steal AJs/AQo as well)
- No 4-bet-bluffs (4-bet-fold): minimal 4-bet-range (1%: KK+; noteworthy aspect: AKs depending on table image, stack size and perhaps reads based on tells)
Post-flop:
- Selective and situation-based bluffs and moves are seldom seen
- Continuation-bet flop, delayed continuation-bet Turn as PFA
- Check-raise flop OOP in heads-up pot on paired boards, rag-boards and A-high-rag-rag-boards
- Call flop-bet/raise turn IP in heads-up pot as float. In the blind battle: Stop&Go-Play OOP or position-bet Flop/Turn IP
- Rare bluff catching with (marginal value-hands)
- with AK or AQ high on rag-boards with busted draws
- with weak top-pair hands after passive play (WAWB) on the flop and/or turn
- Large bet-sizing on nearly all streets as standard play (large value-bets)
- between 60% and 95% of the pots on the flop
- between 75% and 90% of the pots on the turn and river
Roughly characterised, the conservative style is defined as
straightforward. Strong hands are played strong, and weak hands weak.
Bluffs are seldom played and only selectively. Post-flop aggression is
at the most limited to the pot, in which you are PFA or taking a
value-edge.
The general style of play has changed since the
emergence of large scale TV-broadcasts (which began around the late
90's) in which it is possible to see the hole cards of the
participating players. The conservative style has lost its
profitability due to its up-front predictability.
This resulted in many players either playing a
wider range of hands or playing particular hands differently or only
sometimes differently.
This means that: the “(more) modern” style loses
its value-edge as an absolute basis for game theory. In return, the
fold-equity gains relevance and on the other hand, you occasionally
attempt to hide (disguise) the strength of your hand in order to trap
your opponents.
As a result, the modern poker player's repertoire
of moves and bluffs rises considerably. This creates its own unique
dynamics in the general flow of the game: the game becomes more
psychological, aggressive, and variable.
About the special characteristics of this style:
Pre-flop:
- Loose open-raising ranges / high
attempt-to-steal frequency (PFR of 15-30%: 22+, A9s+, ATo+, K9s+, KJo+,
QTs+, JTs as a small range up to 22+, Ax+, K9s+, KJo+, Q9s+, QTo+,
J9s+, JTo, 54s+) - Higher 3-bet-frequency, IP against raisers
from early position as well (depending on PFR of the 2-bet 2-12%: up to
22+, ATs+, AJo+, KJs+, KQo, QJs, JTs) for value, initiative and
fold-equity - Selective 4-bet-bluffs as 4-bet-fold depending
on stack size (from effectively 120BB solid) and fold-equity (often
[min-]4-bet from UTG against 3-bet from late position and from BU/CO against 3-bet from the blinds) - Squeeze-play as a special
form of the 3-Bet, somewhat more frequent than the normal 3-Bet, due to
the higher fold-equity (depending on position and calling-tendencies of
the involved players up to 16%: 22+, A2s+, ATo+, K9s+, KJo+, QJs)
Post-flop:
- Higher aggression on the flop and river
- Check-raise for value and check-raise as Bluff in 2-bet/unraised pots
- Donkbet for raise inducement in 3-bet-pots
- Bluff-bets on the turn, river, OOP and IP as betting into scare cards
- OOP float as move (usually deep-stacked: 150BB+)
- 3-barrel-bluffs or line-bluffs (call flop, bet/raise turn, bet/raise river; check-raise flop, bet turn, bet river)
- Variation
in bet sizing: block-bet (20-40% of the pot) on all streets OOP,
value-bets on the Turn (55%-95% of the pot) and river (30%-95% of the
pot) - Overbetting on the turn and the river (usually as open-push OOP) as bluff- and value-bet
The fundamental advantage of the modern playing style lies, as you can
clearly see in its description, in its unpredictability (disguise,
deception). Sklansky's “Fundamental Theorem of Poker“ (Theory of
Poker), which states that you always make a profit when the opponent
plays his hand differently from how he would if he knew what hand you
have, applies here. As a result, the significance of variations in
hand, line and bet size selection lies in invoking an incorrect
decision by your opponent.
The downside of this is that you often enter the
flop or even go to the showdown with a hand, the equity of which is
below that of your opponent's hand (range) - in other words, money is
invested as the underdog. In short: you deviate from the best way of
playing (optimum game theory) to make your opponent do the same. You
become exploitable to create exploitability.
A further aspect of the modern approach, is that, on the one hand, you raise the variance whilst, on the other hand,
creating and possibly using marginal edges to your advantage. With the
conservative style, you would for example, fold KJs on BU against a
MP-raise, whereas the modern player - by taking into consideration the increased variance and the risk of errors post-flop - sometimes wins a couple of pots more, if the opponent does not adapt his style of play (or does so,
but not in time).
Another reason for the profitability of the modern
style, lies in creating tough decisions that put psychological pressure
on the opponent causing him to make a wrong i.e. expensive decision at
some point. It is therefore not only about win-odds.
This is of great importance, especially in
no-limit, which lives mainly off implied odds: the advantage of the
modern player over the conservative player lies in his experience in
dealing with such situations. Therefore, the assumption is made that:
the experienced modern player will make fewer mistakes post-flop than
the conservative player.
Poker from an evolutionary perspective – the basis of post-modern understanding of the game
That's the trademark slogan of Humberto Brenes,
who entertains the tables at the WSOP with his little shark card
protector. As entertaining as this cute little animal may be, it is an
indication of the fundamental truth of the state of poker, which allows
us to draw in-depth conclusions about the communal and socio-cultural
state of our generation.
Indeed: the scenario of eating and being eaten,
the shark and the fish, as favoured amongst poker players, is
legitimate. The poker player of today, including you who wants to learn
in a poker school i.e. learn to master the game, is in a constant
battle for survival. In poker terms: the preservation or rather the
growth of your own bankroll.
In your habitat, the poker tables, there are also
players who want to survive; they are a threat to you and your
bankroll. You all live in a world with limited life force. In poker
terms: the rake is feeding off you. Every battle, i.e. every pot, costs
energy.
You can prepare yourself for the fight now: on the one hand, through
theoretical training (mathematical-analytical knowledge such as charts)
and mental preparation (psychology, stability, tilt-resistance) and on
the other, by looking back at previous battles (session reviews / hand
reviews and analysis).
As a poker player, you have the freedom of making
decisions, limited only by the table-limit and your effective stack.
You have multiple sources as the basis of your decisions: fortuity,
emotion, and calculation/evaluation. Even if some players, including
poker-pros, base their decision on a coin-flip, it should be clear that
calculation gives you the greatest chance of survival. The most
important resource for calculation is information.
You have two large areas as sources of
information: game theory, i.e. the mathematical-analytical basis of
Texas Hold'em, and the analysis of your opponents.
In the beginning your opponent on the other end of the table is a black
box to you. You know nothing about him apart form his stack size and
screen-name. You are not able to see through his decisions.
Theoretically it could even be a computer that 'plays' randomly or
rather very systematically, i.e. programmed.
To make a sound decision at the table which is
based on information that is as complete as possible, you need to make
the assumption that your opponent is also a rational Thinking Player.
Meaning his decisions are based upon reasons that are comprehensible
and more or less transparent.
In addition to this, you need to be aware that
your your opponent may not be making the best plays from the viewpoint
of game theory and that not everyone plays the same way: every player
has his own game logic and justifies his play in his own, individual,
manner. This could be in accordance with the optimum game theory, but
not necessarily. It is therefore important that you learn to understand
his decisions, in order to use this information against him.
As in nature, there is a constant evolution of the
systems within the world of poker: the poker player who wants to
survive, needs to adapt. He who does, survives, and he who does not,
perishes (goes broke/moves down the limits).
In evolutionary theory, we speak of the principle of the diversity of
species, the variations. It is from these different types that nature
or the "way of things" chooses those who will survive. This is called
natural selection. In the end, the continued selection in the world
results in a state of stability.
If you apply this theory to the evolution of
poker, you are able to draw a feasible line: it begins with a deck of
cards and rules of the game. A few players who know little or nothing
about the game apart from the rules, create the basis for the
variations. Every player is therefore a variable in the world of poker.
Some players win money whilst others lose it.
The better players will be selected and will survive. The special
circumstance that a bit of luck, i.e. variance, is in the game is
analogue to the phenomenon of randomness in nature. In reality however,
the better (more proficient) players survive in the long-run and are
therefore a stabilising factor in this world.
In poker, thinking humans play against one
another, whilst measuring themselves against each other, based upon
rational decisions (as shown above). He who makes better decisions will
be on top. A lot has happened in poker since the 1950's from a game
theory perspective and this technical knowledge is available to a lot
of players, thanks to TV and the internet, especially the poker
schools.
There is a development that can be derived from an evolutionary point of view:
- In the world of calling-stations, the
tight-aggressive players (TAGs) are selected, as they make more money
than they lose, due to the value-edge (“the conservative era”: approx.
1950-1990). - In the world of TAGs and calling-stations, the
LAGs (loose-aggressive players) and TAGs are selected. The TAGs have a
value-edge over the calling-stations and a small value-edge (with high variance) over the
LAGs. The LAGs have a value-edge and deception-edge
over the calling-stations, and a deception-edge with high variance over
the TAGs (“the modern era”: approx. 1990-2003). - In a world
of TAGs, LAGs and calling-stations, the primary selection falls on
those players who can make use of the advantages of the LAG and TAG
styles (LAG-TAG) for themselves. The secondary selection falls on all
other players who make use of some of these advantages (“the
post-modern ones”).
Important aspects of the post-modern game – know your enemy
An integral part of the post-modern player's character is knowing his strengths and weaknesses, the mindset with which he approaches the table. Make it clear to yourself that you are in a
competitive struggle. You have one goal: to preserve your bankroll and if possible, to increase it. You have an abundance of information available to achieve this.
It is therefore of central importance to you, to
study game theory (by reading other strategy articles, watching videos,
analysing hands) on the one hand, and gathering experience at the
tables so that you may become more proficient in the handling, i.e. the
evaluation of information on the other.
It is crucial, that you are aware of why and with what intention you
take any particular action and that you know where your
advantages (edge) over your opponents lie.
You are aware that your opponents are on different
steps of the poker evolutionary ladder. This means that they play
pre-conservative (bad calling-station), conservative (TAG), modern (LAG)
or post-modern (LAG-TAG). There are meaningful descriptions of player
types that help you to make use of the weaknesses of your opponents as
well, e.g. Donkey, Rock or Maniac.
In online poker you should make notes of exploitable playing styles and
tendencies of your opponents and generally play with stats, which make
it easier for you to obtain an overview of the game. It can be
dangerous if you have permanently marked a player down as bad: players learn new
things!
Evolution is not a static process that advances in steps, it flows
gradually. The roughly described styles bear very little to no
relevance at all for bad players who don't consciously play any
specific style, as they often make gut decisions. You should therefore
never rely 100% on stats or notes, but rather make an exact evaluation
of the win/lose risk, as long as the information is available to you.
Once you have made a more or less solid
assessment (meaningful sample size: several thousand hands) of your
opponent, you will be able to correctly categorise him based on his playing style and estimate
his repertoire of moves. You know whether or not you can 3-bet in a
given situation, when it is better to cold-call, when a 4-bet is not
profitable, when a bluff-4-bet is possible and so on.
In a wider sense, the knowledge of the strengths and weaknesses of the
different playing styles and targeted use of your opponents leaks, are to
your advantage as a post-modern player: he either folds too often or
calls too often. Perhaps he is also too aggressive.
Your two biggest weapons in poker are mathematics,
which displays itself in the form of
odds/outs/tendencies/stats/move-frequencies on the one hand and on the
other, your deception, i.e. your advantage of having information
regarding the strength of hands. The value of deception rises against
conservative players due to implied odds and the increase of potential
errors made by your opponents. The value-basis gains importance against
modern players.
At this point, your ability to make decisions
becomes relevant. There are a lot of post-modern players in poker. It
is important to make measured use of your aggression.
Especially in pre-flop play, you will find a large potential for
errors, particulary with marginal value-hands in the large 4-bet pot (JJ,
QQ, AQ). It is often better to play these hands for pot-control. In any
event, you will rarely have any edge over the good post-modernists.
This is why you should proceed with care in pots against them and play
by equity in large pots.
In view of the complexity of the pre-flop
constellation and diversity of opponents (type of opponents), you need
to constantly re-evaluate which component outweighs the other: value or
deception. If you play several thousand hands against the same
opponent, you also need to evaluate how far the opponent adapts to your
style of play. This is generally seen less through the stats and more
through one or more hands that are played in a distinctively different
manner.
Pre-flop, you will particulary observe the 3-bet behaviour and
cold-calling tendencies or special plays, such as the notorious
“calling a 3-bet” with AA from UTG against a BU-3-bet.
Changing your playing style, mixing your hands and
moving up and down with the aggression frequency (power poker vs. small
ball poker) becomes necessary, especially when always playing against
the same opponents: basically breaking out of your regular style of
ranges, lines and bet sizes that make you readable and predictable.
As a post-modern player, you combine the
advantages of different styles. Your big skill is the
calculation of your opponents' hand ranges and the identification of
possible value- or bluff-bets, as well as the adaptive
utilisation of your opponents' leaks and tendencies.
The basis of information for optimum play from a post-modern
perspective is not always clearly defined and when it is, you are not
always able to define it in the current hand. The human capacity for
calculations is sometimes overwhelmed. Therefore, the evolutionary
selection mechanism also applies to the irregular distribution of
talent and the ability to calculate, the speed of adaptation and the
creativity in discovering leaks as well as the identification of
profitable spots.
You therefore require a lot of patience and
experience as well as the willingness to constantly analyse and process
information, quite a demanding situation. Nevertheless, these are parts
of the successful poker player's mindset.
For various reasons it's not possible to define the more special details of the post-modern style within the scope of this article, not even as a nearly enough complete overview.
The following can be set as a defining characteristic: the unification
of all playing styles which targets the opponents' leaks. In practice
you can refer to Hasenbraten's article
(currently only in German) regarding pre-flop play. There you will
learn how to ask yourself the correct questions in order to gain the
tendency of making the correct decisions.
Conclusion
From an evolutionary point of view, you find
yourself in a battle for survival with your opponents. Your opponents
play rationally and in completely individual manners. Through the
gathering of information about the mathematical basis of the game and
the playing styles of your opponents, you are able to identify the
playing style and to make use of their weaknesses.
As a defining direction when making an assessment
of your opponents, the 4-step model of the evolution of a poker player
comes to your aid (calling-station, conservative TAG, modern LAG,
post-modern TAG-LAG). Utilising notes/reads and tracked mathematical
stats, you are able to condense and adapt your assessment of your
opponent in order to constantly change your play to target his
weaknesses.
The more modern the action of your opponent, the
more important it becomes to base your play on equity. The more
conservative your opponent plays, the more important the aspect of
deception. However, as no player plays a pure, idealised style, you
need to integrate both elements into your game and pay attention to
which one is more important in view of the players at your table.
For the special case where you play against
opponents against whom you have played often, who also have and use
information about you, you need to occasionally break out of your
regular playing patterns and shift a gear up or down, to remain
unpredictable.
The important thing is that you approach the table
in a frame of mind that provides you with as wide as possible basis of
information that is relevant to your game. This article has shown you
how this is possible from a post-modern perspective. It is now up to
you to develop this awareness.
Wishing you much success!
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