Updated on 02 Jul 26 by
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Strategy

Floating

Introduction

Floating is a course of play whereby, in a raised pot, one calls the continuation bet of the pre-flop raiser, with the intention of taking the pot away from them on the turn with a bluff. The move can take place both in and out of position, but it is substantially easier to pull off in position. This article discusses the mathematical background behind the move and highlights situations in which it may be used.

The expected value of the float in position

Float Equity without a draw

Example:
NL $2/$4

Stacks:
MP ($460)
Hero ($395)

Preflop: Hero is BU with 7 , 8
1 fold, MP raises to $12, Co calls $12, Hero calls $12, 2 fold.

Flop: ($42) 2, 6, K (3 players)
MP bets $32, CO folds, Hero calls $32.

Turn: ($106) J (2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets $70, ...

We call the raise with position on the pre-flop aggressor. This results
in a continuation bet on the flop. At this moment in time, we cannot say
whether or not this means anything. The purpose of our flop-call here is
to steal the pot from our opponent if he shows weakness on the turn. In
order to compute the expectancy value, we proceed on the following assumptions:

  • Against a further bet on the turn, we will
    fold.
  • If our opponent plays check/call on the turn, we will then give up on the
    river.
  • Against a check/raise on the turn, we will likewise give up the hand.
  • We will not make a hand on the turn with which it is worth continuing to
    play.

EV = P(Turncheck) * {P(Fold) * [Pot(Turn) - Call(Flop)] - [1 - P(Fold)] *
[Bet(Turn) + Call(Flop)]} - [1 - P(Turncheck)] * Call(Flop)

In this equation we have two unknown quantities. First, the probability
that our opponent will check on the turn, and also the probability he will give
up the hand to a raise. The following diagram shows the equity against
the probability of folding at the turn for different probabilities that our
opponent will check the turn.

Float Equity with a draw

Often
we are in the situation where we have a gutshot straight draw, or similar weak
draw. The assumptions are the same as above, except that we may, in
addition, make a strong hand on the turn.

Example:

NL $2/$4

Stacks:
MP ($460)
Hero ($395)

Preflop: Hero is BU with 7 , 8
1 fold, MP raises to $12, Co calls $12, Hero calls $12, 2 fold.

Flop: ($42) 4, 6, K (3 players)
MP bets $32, CO folds, Hero calls $32.

a) Turn: ($106) J (2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets $70, ...

b) Turn: ($106) 5 (2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets $70, ...

Here
we calculate the expected value:

EV = [1 - P(Draw arrives)] * {P(Turncheck) * {P(Fold) * [Pot(Turn) -
Call(Flop)] - [1 - P(Fold)] * [Bet(Turn) + Call(Flop)]}- [1 -
P(Turncheck)] * Call(Flop)} + P(Draw arrives) * {P(Turncheck) * {P(Fold) *
[Pot(Turn) - Call(Flop)] +[1 - P(Fold)] * [Pot(Turn) + Pot(Turn) * Implied Factor * 2/3 - Call(Flop)}+ [1 -
P(Turncheck)] * [Pot(Turn) - Call(Flop) + Implied Factor * Pot(Turn)}

The implied factor determines how much value we
can still get from our opponent, on average (in units of the pot at the
turn). With a turn check, I multiplied the implied factor by 2/3, since we
are unlikely to see a direct bet from our opponent and must therefore work
assuming lower profits.

The following diagram expresses our equity
versus the probability of a fold from our opponent for different probabilities
of a check on the turn from our opponent. We have a gutshot straight draw in
the example, which completes with probability of 8.5% on the turn. The
implied factor is set at 1.5.

Comparison: Floating without a draw, Floating with draw

We
see from this analysis that floating with a small draw such as a gutshot
straight draw clearly pushes our equity upwards.

Example:
P(Turncheck) = 60%
P(Fold) = 60%

Total probability that villain folds: 36% (0.6 * 0.6).

EV without Draw: -10.64
EV with Draw: +4.12

In these examples the implied factor was set to 1.5, however, realistically
this is quite a low value.

The expected value of floating out of position

This
situation ought to arise quite rarely, since good players will mainly want to
avoid playing out of position against one pre-flop raiser.

Float Equity without a draw

Example:
NL $2/$4

Stacks:
Hero ($460)
Button ($395)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 7 , 8
1 fold, MP raises to $12, 3 fold, Hero calls $8.

Flop: ($26) 2, 6, K (3 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $20, Hero calls $20.

Turn: ($66) J (2 players)
Hero bets $47, MP ...

We call with 78s in the BB after a single pre-flop raiser. On the flop,
we play check/call, with the intention of bringing down the pot on the turn.

We make the following assumptions:

  • Should our opponent call or raise our turn bet, we are beat.
  • We cannot make a hand on the turn with which it will be worthwhile to
    continue playing.

The expected value is calculated as follows:

EV = P(Fold) * [Pot(Turn) - Call(Flop)] - [1 - P(Fold)] * [Call(Flop) + Bet(Turn)].
The following diagram shows our equity versus the probability that villain will
fold the hand:

The
equity calculation is much simpler in the case where we are out of position,
since we no longer need the unknown variable representing the probability that
our opponent checks the turn. We can see in this example that the float
is worth it once we have a fold equity of 60% or better.

Float Equity with draws

Now
we analyse the situation in which we have a draw.

Example:
NL $2/$4

Stacks:
Hero ($460)
Button ($395)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 7 , 8
1 fold, MP raises to $12, 3 fold, Hero calls $8.

Flop: ($26) 4, 6, K (3 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $20, Hero calls $20.

a) Turn: ($66) J (2 players)
Hero bets $47, MP ...

b) Turn: ($66) 5 (2 players)
Hero bets $47, MP ...

Calculating the EV:

EV = [1 - P(Draw arrives)] * {P(Fold) * [Pot(Turn) - Call(Flop)] - [1 -
P(Fold)] * [Call(Flop) + Bet(Turn)]} + P(Draw arrives) * {P(Fold) * [Pot(Turn)
- Call(Flop)] + [1-P(Fold)] * [Call(Flop) + Implied Factor * Pot(Turn)]}

The diagram shows our equity measured against the probability our opponent
folds. Once more, we have a gutshot straight draw and the implied factor
is set to 1.5.

Comparison: Floating without a draw, Floating with a draw

Once more, we see that our equity greatly improves with the presence of
a draw. With just 4 outs, we need to have 10% less fold equity than
without a draw in order to make the play profitable.

Comparison: Floating "In Position" and Floating "Out of Position"

In position, it is substantially easier and more effective to
float. Villain must react first and we can wait to see what he does. This
brings some advantages in itself:

  • We usually have a higher fold equity. If we are OOP on the turn and
    donk directly into villain, we still have no idea about his hand
    strength. If we see villain check the turn to us, however, this mostly
    indicates he has a weak or medium strength hand.
  • If we hit our draw in position, we can extract more value from villain, so
    our implied odds rise.
  • We have the option of taking a free card in position if we hit a moderate
    hand (with showdown value) or a strong draw.

Estimating the probability that villain gives up the hand on the turn

The probability that villain
folds the turn depends on many factors. In the following, we'll deal more
precisely with this. You should naturally take into consideration the following
things when the flop comes.

Type of opponent

There are two important characteristics to take into consideration. The
first is the aggressiveness of the opponent. The more aggressive the opponent,
the more continuation bets he makes. The more continuation bets he makes,
the more likely he is to have a weak holding on the turn and we can take down
the pot. On the other hand, an aggressive opponent will sometimes fire a second
barrel bluff on the turn, making a float impossible.

Further we must know how often our opponent goes to the showdown. The
more often this is, the less fold equity we have, hence it makes no sense to
float a calling station.

Pokertracker stats

Concerning
aggression, pokertracker gives different aggression values, with average
aggression supplying a general estimate postflop. The two values
representing continuation bet plays on the flop and the turn are particularly important,
but are only meaningful with a large sample size. Went to showdown is of
course relevant. Of special importance to our situation, is the value for
folding to a turn bet. With these values (and a large sample size) we can
measure quite precisely how often, on average, villain will fold.

Board

Drawheavy:
The more draws which are possible, the more likely our opponent has a draw that will be difficult to get him off of. It is also more likely that our
opponent will put us on a draw and hence be more reluctant to fold.
Naturally, the more probable that our opponent has a made hand, the less likely
that he'll fold.

Image

All
these considerations depend strongly on our own image. What does the
opponent think of us? If we have been known to float on boards which he
might have seldom hit, he is more likely to fire a second barrel or check/raise
the turn.

Change of EV with variations of the betsize

It
makes a lot of difference whether our opponent bets 1/2 pot or 3/4 pot on the
flop. First we show two hands. In both examples hero will bet 2/3
potsize on the turn if it is checked to him. All other parameters stay the same (same fold equity on the turn etc).

Case a)

Stacks:
MP ($460)
Hero ($395)

Preflop: Hero is BU with 7 , 8
1 fold, MP raises to $12, Co calls $12, Hero calls $12, 2 fold.

Flop: ($42) 2, 6, K (3 players)
MP bets $21, CO folds, Hero calls $21.

Turn: ($84) J (2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets $56, ...

EV (without Draw): -4.2
EV (with Draw): 7.51 (if, for example, there was a "4" instead of a
"2")

Case b)

Stacks:
MP ($460)
Hero ($395)

Preflop: Hero ist BU with 7 , 8
1 fold, MP raises to $12, Co calls $12, Hero calls $12, 2 fold.

Flop: ($42) 2, 6, K (3 players)
MP bets $32, CO folds, Hero calls $32.

Turn: ($106) J (2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets $70, ...

EV (without Draw): -10.64
EV (with Draw): 4.12

We see clearly that our equity is larger if our opponent makes smaller
continuation bets.

When should I float?

As a conclusion the following points:

  • Try to float in position.
  • Try to float with draws, even if they are weak draws.
  • Float against weak continuation bets.
  • Watch your opponents! Don't float a calling station.

How big should I bet on the turn?

In general, the turn bet should be large enough to put the EV to the maximum. It is a very opponent specific and image specific decision. As a general recommendation you should bet 2/3 potsize.

Conclusion

Floating is a very complex topic and is difficult to implement. To get a feeling for tha appropriate situations you should analyze your hands afterwards and to learn from them.

Floating is a good move to raise your winrate especially in the high limits given that you float in the right situations. If you float in the wrong situations it can be very expensive.