Riverplay part 1

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Riverplay part 1 - theory

from MiiWiin

Throughout the course of every hand, we have to survive a maximum of 4
streets to see a showdown. Every street has its own dynamics and
problems, but the river poses the greatest difficulty.

We will start by looking at the special
characteristics of the game on the river, and what you should be
looking out for. In the next two parts, we'll deal with a couple of
examples, where we put special emphasis on the different types of
opponents, situations and especially on our own position.

As mentioned, every street is unique, but the river is often
underestimated. Just as people can underestimate a river in real life
and get carried away, the same can happen in poker!

The river has a number of special characteristics. The human brain
remembers standard situations and tries to create a pattern. As poker
players we know that this can be very dangerous. We therefore analyse
our method of play, as well as the results. If we come to the
conclusion that our move has a +EV, we can then be satisfied in making
it.

This learning process is obviously very important, but it will only be
beneficial if we apply it to similar situations in the future. Once we
have developed these kind of dynamics, we'll arrive at the correct
decisions more frequently and become better at the game. A lot of
experience is therefore necessary.

If we analyse every street, we usually find ourselves in preflop
situations where we've already adjusted our game to our different
opponents, and so we should avoid making mistakes in the long run.

At the end, there is the river. It is logical that the last betting
round occurs less frequently than any of the other streets. If you
consider your VPIP and your "Went to showdown" value you will notice
that you very rarely have to make a decision on the river, namely in a
ratio of 1 to 25. In other words, we basically lack experience on the
river.

It is obviously very frustrating when we have to make expensive
decisions on the river. The pot has naturally become very big, and
since the bets in no-limit holdem are generally not based on the size
of the pot, we'll have to invest relatively a lot.

Furthermore, there is a large difference between the river and all the
other streets, in that, the hands are already "made". There are no more
cards to come, two hands are up against each other, one of which is
usually the better one and which therefore has the right to claim the
pot. Whether this hand actually wins, though, has not yet been decided.

Quite often, you'll think of the hand as already being complete - all
you have to do is take it to a showdown. If you put villain on a draw,
it either arrives on the river or it doesn't. Should your opponent miss
his draw, it's most likely you'll still be ahead, but if he hits, you
must act with caution.

You may have already decided on the turn whether you want to give up on
the river, induce a bluff, or make a value bet, leaving you less
focused on the river.

The odds obviously change as well. On the early streets, odds are
basically a bet on the probability that a card which improves our hand
hits on the following streets. We usually assume to be behind, but we
can calculate the probability of making the best hand quite accurately.
We have a tougher calculation with the pot odds due to possible implied
odds, but we can estimate whether a call is profitable or not in the
long run, with experience.

We get odds for a call on the river as well, but we cannot make use of any mathematics:

1.) PartyPoker $25 NL Hold'em (6 handed) HandRecorder v0.9b

Stacks & Stats
MP ($25)
CO ($25)
UTG ($25)
BB ($25)
SB ($25)
Hero ($25)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A , K
UTG raises to $1.00 2 folds, Hero raises to $3.25, 2 folds, UTG calls $3.25

Flop: ($6.35) K, 3, 4 (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $4.50, UTG calls $4.50

Turn: ($15.35) 5 (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks

River: ($15.35) 6 (2 players)
UTG bets $7.50, Hero ???

This is a standard hand until the turn. Hero decided to check behind on
the turn, and then to to perhaps call on the river depending on the bet
size and whether the river is a or not.

Obviously, villain bets. Hero has to pay 7.50$ to have the chance of
winning 22.35$. This equates to pot odds of around 3 to 1. This means
that hero has to be ahead in one of four cases to be able to call
profitably.

Estimating these odds is difficult though. Are we really going to be
ahead one in four times? It is not possible to calculate anything
quickly here.

These situations require experience and in these situations, you
inevitably have to make expensive decisions. So there is no harm in
utilising the equilator and giving our opponents some ranges in order
to judge whether we ahead enough times.

You should retain an open-mind at this point, and consider all options.
The size of the bet influences our odds immensely and can turn a
profitable call into a bad call.

It is very clear in the example above though. Villain checked on the
turn and induced a bluff. His small bet and the probability of villain
bluffing, make this a definite call with top pair and top kicker.

It would be wrong to play the following line every time: check behind
the turn / call any river without looking at the odds. If your opponent
makes a potsize bet, you could think about this even further, but you
should definitely not call a push.

More about this next time.

Basically we have three different options on how we want to play the river.

1.) The Bluff
We don't think we are ahead on the river and want to try to make our
opponent fold a better hand. Apart from the development of the hand and
the board, some background knowledge about our opponent and our image
are also important. Obviously a pure bluff is the only option - since
the hand is already finished, we cannot attempt a semi-bluff. Our goal:
Making a better hand fold!

2.) The Showdown
If we have the opportunity, we want to see a showdown as cheaply as
possible. We do have showdown value, but we don't think that we are
very far ahead and we therefore don't want to invest more money than we
have to.

Our goal: See a showdown cheaply.

3.) The Valuebet
We think that we are ahead, either because the river helped us or
because we had a strong hand before. Our main focus should be on how to
extract the most value from villain.

Our goal: We want to extract the most value for our strong hand.

The strength of our hand and the goals we want to achieve with it are
important as well. We can also provide some classifications here:

1.) Weak Hand
Our hand is weak and doesn't have any showdown value. This would be
possible if you have a busted flush draw, unimproved over-cards, or
after a call with a middle pair which has lost its strength because
more over cards have followed on the turn and river.

2.) Made Hand
We have a made hand which is good and possesses some showdown value,
but isn't necessarily the best hand. Possible hands are over-pairs or
top pair / top kicker. Furthermore, hands which could have been drawn
out on, for example a set on a board with four connected cards, or a
strong two pair with 3 cards of one suit on the board.

3.) Strong made hand
We have a very strong hand on the river. We think that we are ahead
most of the time so that we want to get paid off. We basically assume
that we have the nuts and only see a small chance that villain is
actually holding a better hand.

Comparing our three options with our possible hands we can merge the three points.

If we are holding a weak hand, a bluff is much more suitable than with
a made hand. If we are holding a made hand, we shouldn't try to make
our hand too expensive. Finally, we shouldn't try to miss any value
bets with our strong made hands.

As already mentioned, we will address implementing these options in position, depending on the villain.

In two weeks we will deal with playing out of position, which is a little harder than playing in position.

To finish the theory, one important thing is missing, which gains added importance when talking about river play: Bluff induce.

The bluff induce gains in importance on the later streets. Frequently
this is employed on the turn, where you can check behind in position,
in order to induce a bluff on the river.

Inducing a bluff, on the river, out of position, is of similar value.
You can often try to induce a bluff by checking, in which case you
could see a showdown cheaply, but the expected bet on the river
increases the expected value.

The bluff induce will also be discussed in the next two parts.