River Value Bets (5) - Exception Spots
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River Value Bets (5) – Exception Spots
by MiiWiin
The last part of this series deals with two special spots. One is value bets on the river in 3-betted spots, the other is possible river bets in multi-way pots.
A lot of money can be left lying around here too.
3-betted pots
3-betted pots give rise to a special situation. Your opponent's range is usually diminished and the action on the turn and the river gives more information about what your opponent might be holding.
There are lots of things to take into consideration:
- Who is the preflop aggressor?
- Who is playing in position?
- What happens on the flop and the turn?
- What type of player is your opponent?
You need to create yourself the range based on these conditions and consider whether you can still value bet or not.
PartyPoker $25 NL Hold'em (6-handed)
Stacks & Stats
UTG ($25)
MP ($25)
CO ($25) (19/16/2.0/52/5) [VPIP / PFR / AF / ft3-bet/4-bet]
Hero ($25)
SB ($25)
BB ($25)
Preflop: Hero is BU with 
2 folds, CO raises $0.75, Hero raises $2.50, 2 folds, CO calls $2.50
Flop: ($5.35) 
(2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $3.00, CO calls $3.00
Turn: ($11.35) 
(2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $6.00, CO calls $6.00
River: ($23.35) 
(2 players)
CO checks, Hero…
The cut-off is more of a restrained player, however he won't be easily separated from his hands following 3-bets. In this spot he calls a 3-bet out of position.
Traps are always possible, of course, however a range of AJ+ and hands such as 99-QQ are most likely here; now and again a few drawing hands.
You've decided on a 3-bet preflop, a call would also have been conceivable. Very aggressive blinds, who make a heads-up very unlikely, may speak in favour of a 3-bet, as a squeeze will fail too often.
You bet the flop as usual. However, there's already a little problem on the turn: this is a very thin value bet.
Which hand should this player call? There are a few potential draws, of course, however your opponent would have check raised (or donked) a really good draw on the flop (for example 
). Moreover, it's already been established that your opponent probably won't call many drawing hands out of position.
Things look very close against an AJ+/99-QQ range:
| Equity analysis | |||||
| Board | |
||||
| Equity | Win | Split | Loss | Hand | |
| Player 1 | 49.63% | 43.13% | 13% | 43.87% | 99-QQ, AJs+, AJo+ |
| Player 2 | 50.37% | 43.87% | 13% | 43.13% | |
Nonetheless, the bet is still ok, you don't want to see a fourth 
, which might give your opponent a flush with a middle pocket pair. However, you can hardly assume that hands such as 99/TT will call down readily here.
It's a done deal on the river. Out of all the pocket pairs, it would be optimistic of QQ to call a third time here. Your slight hope for an unrealistic AT hand is now destroyed.
There's no way you can value bet again here, there are AQ+ hands too often in way ahead - way behind mode for that.
You've got a clear check behind on the river here. It's possible a check on the turn would also be conceivable here.
PartyPoker $25 NL Hold'em (6-handed)
Stacks & Stats
UTG ($25)
MP ($25)
Hero ($25)
BU ($25)
SB ($25) (25/16/2.8/11/ 75) [VPIP / PFR / AF / 3-bet SB / ft4-bet]
BB ($25)
Preflop: Hero is BU with 
2 folds, Hero raises $0.75, 1 fold, SB raises $2.75, 1 fold, Hero calls $2.75
Flop: ($5.75) 
(2 players)
SB bets $3.00, Hero calls $3.00
Turn: ($11.75) 
(2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks
River: ($11.75) (2 players)
SB checks, Hero…
Preflop, you call the 3-bet in position. You're opponent 3-bets a lot but folds to 4-bets. 4-bet/broke would also be conceivable but do you want to play the hand postflop in position.
The crunch here is on the turn. Here you can and indeed should find a bet. However, you've decided to check behind.
The situation is clear on the river: you must value bet now, at the very latest. You'll almost always be holding the best hand here, your opponent won't play QQ+ so passively. He'll have to make a value bet on the river, at the least. That's why you can more or less rule out these hands.
The remaining range is overcards, Tx, drawing hands which have hit something marginal (i.e. 45s, 67s etc.) or middle pairs such as 99-.
You're 100% ahead against these, with the exception of 77, although even that would actually be worth a river bet for your opponent, however the danger of a check behind on your part is too high.
You're clearly ahead. Your opponent will have to decide what he is still in a position to call. Hands such as Tx/99/88 will probably call in most cases.
Bet size
The bet doesn't need to be too high but also not too small. ½ a pot size should be the minimum, after your play up to now, you can't throw down a pot size bet on the river. That doesn't fit with the rest of the hand. A bet of $7 would be appropriate here.
Multi-way pots
In multi-way pots there are also some specific things to observe. The danger that your opponent traps and slowplays is significantly lower, as he needs to protect against several opponents and the probability is much higher that he'll also get paid out for his hand.
Equally, the hand strength is a little better, as marginal hands in the heads-up pot could be good but lose their value in a multi-way pot.
Even pure bluff calls to prepare floats are less likely, as it's preferable to have fewer opponents in the hand for a pure bluff.
PartyPoker $25 NL Hold'em (6-handed)
Stacks & Stats
Hero ($25)
MP ($25)
CO ($25) (23/17/2.0/4) [VPIP / PFR / AF / 3-bet CO]
BU ($25) (40/10/0.5/2) [VPIP / PFR / AF / 3-bet BU]
SB ($25)
BB ($25)
Preflop: Hero is BU with 
Hero raises $1.00, 1 fold, CO calls $1.00, BU calls $1.00, 2 folds
Flop: ($3.35) 
(3 players)
Hero bets $2.50, CO calls $2.50, BU calls $2.50
Turn: ($10.85) (3 players)
Hero bets $7.50, CO calls $7.50, BU calls $7.50
River: ($33.35) 
(3 players)
Hero...
A very tricky spot. The cut-off will rarely be holding a strong hand, in the multi-way pot he has sets he needs to protect on the flop (or at the latest on the turn). However, he can easily play a draw in this way, as he may give himself little fold equity, but has sufficient implied odds with the passive button.
The button on the other hand may have called everything here, from draws to Kx, middle pairs and even two pairs/sets. This type of player doesn't think about protection very much.
You now have just $14 left and the pot is already $33.35.
Even if it's difficult in a multi-way pot: you should push on the river.
It's most likely that the cut-off will fold his busted draw and the button will call a Kx hand. It could of course be a KJ or a K9 sometimes, but you shouldn't forget that if he calls you'll need just 22.5% equity. You'll get it.
The cut-off will simply trap too rarely here, it's very seldom that he goes to a bad spot with AK/KQ and fight hard on the river. Strong hands would have made themselves known earlier.
If you check the line isn't so clear. In general it doesn't make a lot of sense for your opponent to bluff here (negative freeroll), however, you'll get the same acceptable odds in such a case and may catch one or two busted draws.
As the cut-off will bluff a busted draw multi-way in a sandwich with this pot size too rarely and the button is more likely to check behind a hand that your bet still calls, you should bet on the river.
PartyPoker $25 NL Hold'em (6-handed)
Stacks & Stats
UTG ($25)
MP ($25)
CO ($25) (23/17/2.0/4) [VPIP / PFR / AF / 3-bet CO]
BU ($25) (40/10/0.5/2) [VPIP / PFR / AF / 3-bet BU]
SB ($25)
Hero ($25)
Preflop: Hero is BB with 
2 folds, CO raises $1.00, BU calls $1.00, 1 fold, Hero calls $1.00
Flop: ($3.10) 
(3 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $2.00, BU calls $2.00, Hero calls $2.00
Turn: ($9.10) 
(3 players)
Hero checks, CO checks, BU checks
River: ($33.35) (3 players)
Hero...
Preflop you primarily called to set value.
You're holding an overpair on the flop, you decide to peel once. Alternatively, you could have donked (possibly the better line here) or even check/folded, as the cut-off won't (bluff) bet particularly light in the sandwich against you and the loose button. However, overall, you should call what's reasonable.
You're now on check/fold course on the turn, both check through.
The 6 pairs on the river and you realise you may be ahead in the running.
You consider bet/fold, however you shouldn't go for it. Sure, you'll be ahead now and again, which is precisely the reason you did call on the flop. Your hope is floating on the recent check/check/check on the river and the cheap showdown associated with it.
Should you bet here, which weaker hand should call? A 6 can't be ruled out for either opponent, will a hand such as 77 call again? Unlikely!
Both opponents can also play middle pairs (99-JJ) in this way, occassionally Qx as well, as they want to keep the pot small on the turn and induce another bluff (or lightly value bet a weaker hand, precisely what you're thinking of doing).
You won't get far with this bet, you'll value bet for others too often. There's nothing to balance here either, in this spot it's completely negligable to check down your middle pair here. With this, you'll give few, if any reads away, everyone will realise that you can hardly bet for value here.
Thus, your line should be check/fold.
| » SUMMARY |
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In this final part you became familiar with a couple of exception spots. Every spot is different and must be considered differentially. There are lots of BBs buried here that you may be giving too little consideration to. It's not possible to carry out a complete analysis at the table, that's why experience and rough estimations count. Always find a few hands (at least three) that could still call your bet and which your opponent probably has. Reducing the table is helpful and almost essential in such a game. It also helps immensely if you observe what your opponents take to the showdown in spots in which you aren't involved. |
