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When you don't have a pocket pair, you will only hit the flop for a made hand (pair or better) or a strong draw 1/3 of the time. You usually won't have a hand you can continue to play on the flop when your pre-flop raise gets called.

On the other hand, your opponents are in the same situation. Cases in which no one has a hand worth showing occur relatively often. This is where being the pre-flop aggressor gives you a decisive advantage: Your bet/raise before the flop signaled strength to your opponents.

This allows you to represent a strong hand. This can be enough to scare off opponents with marginal hands like small pocket pairs and weak top pairs, all of which have you beat. Your opponents are so intimidated by your pre-flop action that they don't want to stay on their marginal hands, even though they have the best hand at the moment.

You can win a lot of pots without hitting the flop by continuing your pre-flop aggression. This bet, which is intended to continue your pre-flop story and win the pot directly, is called a continuation bet, or contibet for short.

This article will introduce you to the factors that determine whether or not a continuation bet will be profitable. You will learn about the mathematics behind this move and the conditions that must be met for it to promise success. You will also learn about delayed continuation bets (when you wait for the turn to continue your pre-flop aggression) and 2nd barrels (when you make a second continuation bet on the turn after getting called on the flop).

Video: Session Review Continuation bets
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	Watch Coach Hasenbraten's Session Review to get an even better understanding of continuation bets. Just click on the image to the left to start the video. Hasenbraten explains the basics and shows you how to integrate continuation bets into your game.

The theory

A continuation bet is a bet made on or after the flop by the player who raised (or made the last raise) before the flop. The name basically says it all:

The pre-flop aggressor continues his aggression and bets (with the intention of winning the hand with this bet) even if he has not improved.

A bet is a continuation bet when:

• The bet is being made by the pre-flop aggressor, meaning he raised before the flop and has initiative (meaning he was also the last player to raise pre-flop).
• The pre-flop aggressor is allowed to bet on the flop (i.e. his wager is not a raise).
• The player making the contibet missed the flop, meaning he has neither a made hand nor a strong draw.

As you can see, you place a continuation bet when you are the pre-flop aggressor and missed the flop, but think you have a good chance at winning the hand with a bet.

You take advantage of the fact that your opponents usually won't hit a very good hand on the flop either and use the aggressive image you created with your pre-flop play to take down the pot with a bluff.

Your show of strength with your pre-flop raise will often intimidate your opponents enough for a continuation bet to be successful.

As with any bluff, the size of your bet and the probability that you will win the hand are closely related when it comes to determining the EV.

EXAMPLE

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em (NL$50) (10 handed)

Hero ($51.00)
SB ($48.00)

Pre-flop: Hero is CO with K, A .
6 folds, Hero raises to $2.00, 1 folds, SB calls $1.75, 1 folds.

Flop: ($4.50) T , 2, 9 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero?;

All the conditions for a continuation bet are met in this example. The only question is: How often will you have to win the pot with your bluff bet for it to be +EV?

You bet $1.50 (1/3 pot) for a chance to win $4.50. This corresponds to 3:1 pot odds. You would therefore have to win the hand more than 25% of the time in order to make a profit.

You bet $2.25 (1/2 pot) for a chance to win $4.50. This corresponds to 2:1 pot odds. You would therefore have to win the hand more than 33% of the time in order to make a profit.

You bet $3 (2/3 pot) for a chance to win $4.50. This corresponds to 1.5:1 pot odds. You would therefore have to win more than 40% of the time in order to make a profit.

You bet $4.50 (pot size) to win $4.50. This corresponds to 1:1 pot odds. You would therefore have to win more than 50% of the time in order to make a profit.

You can see the logic:

The larger your continuation bet, the more often it must be successful for it to be profitable.

It is usually the case, as in this example, that you still have outs to win the hand even if your continuation bet does get called.

In this case you have a weak draw with your overcards. You assume you will be heads up with 4 discounted outs if you do not win the hand with your contibet. Keep this in mind when making your decision.

Let's look at the possible results assuming you will win another $10 on average when your opponent calls and you hit one of your 4 outs:

Your opponent folds to your continuation bet and you win $4.50.

Your opponent calls your continuation bet. The probability of hitting one of your 3 outs on the turn and win another $10 is app. 8.5%. The probability of missing and having to fold on the turn and losing $2.25 is app. 91.5%. Your average loss after getting called is: 0.085 * $10 + 0.915 * (-$2.25) = -$1.20875

You can now determine how often your opponent must fold to your continuation bet in order for this move to be break even (+/- 0).

0 = P(fold) * $4.5 + (1 – P(fold)) * -$1.20875

The result is: P(fold) = 0.21

In order for your continuation bet to be +EV your opponent must fold more than 21% of the time. This figure includes the possibility that you could still hit an out on the turn and have the best hand.

Of course, this calculation has been heavily reduced. The actual amount you will win if you hit one of your outs and the number of outs you can actually count on are, by necessity, rough estimations.

But it does give you an idea of how your outs influence the amount of fold equity you need to generate with your continuation bet in order for it to be +EV. You can also take a similar approach with gutshot draws. In general: The more willing your opponent is to pay, the more helpful is to have additional outs.

Important factors when applying a continuation bet

As you know, continuation bets are meant to win the pot directly. The probability of it succeed depends heavily on the following factors:

• The board texture - Is your opponent likely to have hit a made hand or a good draw?
• The board texture - Can you represent a strong made hand?
• The number of opponents in the hand and how likely they are to call.

The board texture is basically defined by the following three factors:

• The size of the cards
• Connectedness
• Suitedness

The bigger the cards, the more connected and the more suited the board, the more likely it is that your opponent has hit something and the less likely it is that you will be able to win the pot with a continuation bet.

The flop is Q J T.

This is a very dangerous flop, since your opponent could have hit it in a number of ways. A two-suited flop with three relatively high, very connected cards is not very suitable for a continuation bet.

The flop is K 7 2.

Your opponent(s) is much less likely to have hit this flop. A rainbow flop with a single high card and no connectedness is very suitable for a continuation bet.

The flop is 7 6 3.

Your opponent(s) is not likely to have hit this flop, either. No high cards, no suited cards. you don't have to worry too much about the connectedness, either, since all of the cards or so low. There is, however, another problem to worry about: There isn't much you can represent other than an overpair.

The flop is J J 4.

This isn't a bad flop for a continuation bet, neither suited nor connected. The two jacks are probably just as scary for your opponent(s) as for you. But chances are low that your opponent has a jack, since two are already on the board. Once again, the problem is what you can represent - not much other than trips or an overpair. A lot of opponents won't necessarily believe your bet.

The flop is A T 5.

Neither suited nor connected and with two cards in the playing zone, this board is also fairly suitable for a continuation bet. The ace is just as scary for your opponents as it is for you and you can use it to represent a strong made hand.

As you have seen, the success of a contibet depends on the board texture. Not only does the board texture indicate how likely your opponent is to have hit anything, it also determines what kind of hand you can represent. All bluffs, including continuation bets, work better when the story you're telling makes sense.

The more opponents you are facing on the flop, the more likely it is that at least one of them has hit something and that he won't be willing to give up his hand to a simple contibet (this, of course, is also heavily influenced by the board texture).

When facing a single opponent, contibetting most boards should certainly be in your standard repertoire. When facing two opponents, you should only contibet on good boards and, preferably, when in position. When facing more than two opponents, it is so likely that one of them will have hit something that you don't need to bother thinking about making a continuation bet at all.

You should, as always, pay attention to your opponents' play and try to identify them as players (rock, maniac, TAG, etc.) This will help you estimate how likely he is to fold weak hands to a contibet or to raise your contibet.

The opponents will be identified based on their PokerTracker stats in this article. If you don't have PokerTracker (or a similar program) you will have to identify your opponents by paying attention to their play and getting reads.

In general: The more aggressive the opponent, the more often he will go to the showdown and the less likely it is that you will be able to win the pot with a continuation bet.

Weak tight opponents don't play many hands pre-flop and only continue playing when they hit the flop for a strong hand. These are the best opponents to target with continuation bets. They fold immediately when they don't have a strong hand. You can contibet the most dangerous boards when facing such an opponent. Weak tight players are easily identified by their stats. They have a low VP$IP, PRF and Went to Showdown value, and usually a relatively high Post-Flop Aggression Factor.

These are also decent opponents to target with continuation bets. They usually only play strong hands after the flop and will often fold to continuation bets. Tight aggressive opponents are usually pretty predictable, too. If they've let you take control of the hand in the pre-flop action, you don't have to worry about running into a strong starting hand. Just be careful if they don't fold; their play should be taken very seriously. Tight aggressive opponents have PokerTracker stats similar to yours.

Tight passive opponents play very few starting hands. When they do play, they rarely show any aggression, even when they have a very strong hand. These opponents are also good targets for contibets. If you do get called, you have to take it as a sign that he has a strong hand and will usually have to give up yours. Tight passive opponents can be identified by the following stats: Low VP$IP, PRF, Aggression and Went to Showdown values.

These opponents play a lot of hands, but rarely show aggression. They usually go too far with their marginal hands and draws and rarely fold, as long as they've hit the flop in the least way. Bottom pair is usually reason enough to call an aggressive opponent's supposed bluff. Continuation bets will rarely work against these calling stations. Remember, your opponent(s) must be willing to fold marginal hands like bottom pair or a gutshot draw if your contibet is to be successful. This is rarely the case when facing a loose passive opponent. Calling stations can be identified by the following stats: High VP$IP, low PFR, high Went to Showdown, and low Aggression Factor values.

Continuation bets promise little success against loose aggressive opponents, as well. These opponents don't just take their weak hands and draws too far, they also bluff and semi-bluff with these hands. What may seem like a no brainer contibet can often lead to a raise. You should completely refrain from continuation bets and wait for strong made hands when facing one particular type of loose aggressive opponent: the maniac. They rarely see continuation bets as a sign of danger, but rather as an invitation to bluff. Loose aggressive opponents can be identified by the following stats: High VP$IP, PFR, Aggression Factor and (usually) Went to Showdown values.

You can estimate how likely you will be able to win the pot with a contibet in a given situation based on all these factors (number/type of opponents, board texture). We will look at some practical examples later, but first we have to finish up with the theory.

As we said, when it comes to bluffing (and this includes continuation bets), it's all about telling a plausible story. It follows: You have to bet the amount you would bet if you had the hand you are representing. If, for example, you usually place a pot sized bet on a draw heavy board, your continuation bet on a draw heavy board should also be pot size.

Your continuation bets should always be the same size as your regular value/protection bets would be, somewhere between 1/2 and the full pot size, depending on the situation at hand.

Of course, this only matters when you are playing with attentive opponents who are observing the game and taking note of bet sizes in various situations. This is rarely the case in the low limits. The opponents you find there rarely pay much attention to what is going on around them and focus solely on their own cards. These typical weak opponents think: A big bet means he has a big hand, a small bet means he has a small hand.

Based on experience, a continuation bet of 1/2-2/3 the pot is a good standard size. This signals that you have a hand you won't easily give up. It's also not so expensive, which means is doesn't have to work as often to be +EV.

Position

You have seen how many different factors come together when it comes to continuation bets. Now it's time to look at a few examples to see how being in/out of position comes into play.

The following stats provide additional help: VP$IP / PFR / Total Aggression Post-flop / Went To Showdown.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em (NL$50) (10 handed)

PT Stats:
SB – 35.3 / 0.9 / 0.6 / 15.0

Hero ($53.20)
SB ($51.25)

Pre-flop: Hero is MP1 with K, Q.
3 folds, Hero raises to $2.00, 4 folds, SB calls $ 1.75, 1 folds.

Flop: ($4.50) 8, 5, 5 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero?

A classic spot for a continuation bet: A safe board that is not likely to have helped your opponent, a single loose passive opponent (he plays a bit tighter post-flop), and a decent number of additional outs with your overcards. If you had AK instead of KQs, you could almost value bet, since such a loose opponent will often have a weaker hand. But your bet remains a continuation bet with the intent of winning the pot and making an ace high hand fold. A good size would be roughly 1/2 pot, or $2.50.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em (NL$50) (10 handed)

PT Stats:
SB – 5.3 / 0.7 / 1.6 / 17.1

Hero ($67.70)
SB ($41.25)

Pre-flop: Hero is MP1 with T, T.
3 folds, Hero raises to $2.00, 4 folds, SB calls $ 1.75, 1 folds.

Flop: ($4.50) A, K, Q (2 players)
SB checks, Hero?

In this spot you have every reason not to contibet. Your pre-flop raise was called by a tight passive opponent from the blinds. The board is very likely to have helped him and you are most likely behind. The best option is refraining from a contibet and taking a free card. You might hit your gutshot on the turn.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em (NL$50) (10 handed)

PT Stats:
UTG - 14.2 / 8.1 / 3.2 / 17.9
BB – 42.3 / 10.8 / 1.2 / 33,9

UTG ($27.22)
Hero ($79.30)
BB ($22.75)

Pre-flop: Hero is MP3 with A, K.
UTG raises to $1.50, 4 folds, Hero raises to $5.00, 3 folds, BB calls $4.50, UTG calls $3.50.

Flop: ($15.25) 9, T, 5 (3 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero?

There are a number of reasons not to contibet in this situation: First of all, the board is relatively draw heavy and could have helped either opponent. Secondly, you are facing two opponents, who both called a pre-flop raise and could easily have a strong hand like a middle pocket pair. Your contibet would have to be fairly large (at least 2/3 pot) to represent a believable overpair, which would have you committed against the BB and almost committed against UTG. You can also expect the loose aggressive short stack to call/raise with a weak made hand out of sheer desperation fairly often.

Quite a few reasons not to place a continuation bet. Your fold equity is very low and betting could lead to a very uncomfortable situation. You should use your positional advantage to take a free card.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em (NL$50) (10 handed)

PT Stats:
MP2 - 14.2 / 8.1 / 3.2 / 17.9
MP3 – 17.3 / 10.8 / 1.3 / 19.8

MP2 ($45.45)
MP3 ($55.22)
Hero ($109.30)

Pre-flop: Hero is Button with Q, J.
4 folds, MP2 calls $0.50, MP3 calls $0.50, 1 folds, Hero raises to $3.00, 2 folds, MP2 calls $2.50, MP3 calls $2.50.

Scenario A:

Flop: ($9.75) 5, A, T (3 players)
MP2 checks, MP3 checks, Hero?

In this scenario you are facing two opponents. This time, however, you aren't expecting either one to have a strong hand or to have hit the flop. Two tight aggressive opponents who limp / call pre-flop usually have a speculative drawing hand or a small pair. The board also gives you the chance to represent top pair. If you do get called and are behind, you still have four outs for a straight and, possibly, outs for your overcards. You will also be able to take a free card on the turn fairly often when you do get called on the flop. Being in position gives you a distinct advantage.

In this situation you contibet against two opponents. You can make a 1/2-2/3 pot (roughly $6) bet on this relatively dry board.

Scenario B:

Flop: ($9.75) 8, 2, 7 (3 players)
MP2 checks, MP3 checks, Hero?

The same situation but with a different flop. This flop is much more likely to have helped speculative hands like suited connectors and small pocket pairs. There isn't much you can represent, either. You do have overcard outs, but you have to discount heavily, since there are so many hands you could be fair behind against (two pair, set); a jack could also complete a straight, and any diamond could give one of your opponents a flush.

In this situation you have much less fold equity and are more likely to be behind against better hands. The chances of winning with a bluff are slim. Checking behind and taking a free card is your best option.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em (NL$50) (10 handed)

PT Stats:
MP2 - 24.2 / 5.1 / 1.2 / 19.9
BB – 27.4 / 10.8 / 2.3 / 22.6

MP2 ($65.50)
BB ($45.22)
Hero ($48.27)

Pre-flop: Hero is Button with A, J.
4 folds, MP2 calls $0.50, 2 folds, Hero raises to $2.50, 1 folds, BB calls $2.00, MP2 calls $2.00.

Flop: ($7.75) Q, Q, 5 (3 players)
BB checks, MP2 checks, Hero?

This board may look pretty scary at first glance, but remember that it's just as scary for them as it is for you. You will usually win this pot with a continuation bet, even against two opponents, as long as neither one has a queen or is slowplaying a big pocket pair. Your opponents aren't particularly aggressive, so you don't have to worry too much about a bluff check/raise. This makes contibetting a good option. Your bet doesn't have to be much more than 1/2 pot to represent a Q or a big pocket pair. $4 is a good size for this spot.

Out of position

One of the main differences between contibetting in position and contibetting out of position is the option of taking a free card, which you don't have when you are out of position. This is why it is sometimes to better to contibet out of position when you would have taken a free card if you were in position. Checking out of position is also an option, since you won't be able to buy any free cards in later betting rounds if you do contibet out of position.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em (NL$50) (10 handed)

PT Stats:
MP2 – 35.3 / 0.9 / 0.6 / 15.0

Hero ($53.20)
MP2 ($51.25)

Pre-flop: Hero is MP1 with K, Q.
3 folds, Hero raises to $2.00, MP2 calls $ 2.00, 5 folds.

Flop: ($4.75) 8, 5, 5 (2 players)
Hero?

The same situation from the last section. Whether you are in or out of position doesn't change anything in this example. The board is not dangerous and your opponent, who doesn't like to call very often, probably missed. A good spot for a 1/2 pot contibet (something around $2.50).

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em (NL$50) (10 handed)

PT Stats:
Button - 14.2 / 8.1 / 3.2 / 17.9
BB – 17.3 / 10.8 / 1.3 / 19.8

Button ($45.45)
BB ($55.22)
Hero ($109.30)

Pre-flop: Hero is CO with Q, J. 6 folds, Hero raises to $2.00, Button calls $2.00, 1 folds, BB calls $1.50. Flop: ($6.25) 5, A, T (3 players)
BB checks, Hero?

You would probably make a contibet if you were in position in this example (see Example 4 in the last section). But you have a distinct disadvantage in this example: Since you are out of position, you won't be able to see a free card on the turn if you do contibet. One of your opponents could have hit the flop given the pre-flop action and you can expect to see a call, raise or even check/raise fairly often. Poor position and a flop that is fairly likely to have helped an opponent are two good reasons not to place a continuation bet.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em (NL$50) (10 handed)

PT Stats:
MP2 - 24.2 / 4.2 / 2.6 / 21.8
Button – 17.3 / 10.8 / 1.3 / 19.8

MP2 ($45.45)
Button ($55.22)
Hero ($109.30)

Pre-flop: Hero is BB with K, Q.
4 folds, MP2 calls $0.50, 2 folds, Button calls $0.50, 1 folds, Hero raises to $3.00, MP2 calls $2.50, Button calls $2.50.

Flop: ($7.75) 5, A, T (3 players)
Hero?

A similar situation again, but this time your hand has much more strength. Neither opponent showed any strength before the flop and are likely to have speculative hands, which the flop is not likely to have helped, given the betting sequence.

You have outs for a gutshot and a backdoor flush draw, and your overcard outs will also be good fairly often. This is a good spot for an out of position contibet: Your opponents seem to have weak hands and you have a number of outs you can hit if you do get called. Your bet should signal significant strength. 2/3 pot is a good size for representing top pair. You bet $6.

Delayed continuation bets

A delayed continuation bet is a bet made on the turn, not on the flop. Sometimes you just check a suspicious flop hoping to get more information before you are willing to invest in a hairy situation.

A hairy situation can be:

• Facing two or more opponents on the flop.
• A very dangerous board.
• You've developed a poor image by playing very aggressively.
• Your opponent(s) likes to call or is very aggressive.

A check instead of a contibet from an otherwise aggressive player often raises suspicion. A lot of players think it's a trap. This often leads to a check behind, which allows you to a) take a free card, and b) expect a delayed contibet on the turn to be much more effective. Your opponent will have shown weakness and will have even worse odds to call with a drawing hand on the turn than on the flop.

The flip side of the coin is that you allow your opponent to take a free card, as well. You are also much less likely to see a bluff or semi-bluff on the turn than on the flop. Semi-bluffs with drawing hands are particularly rare (and inappropriate), since the odds of hitting an out by the showdown are much worse than they are on the flop.

A delayed continuation bet can only work against attentive opponents when you also use this line with strong hands. If you fail to balance your delayed continuation bets, your opponents will have an easy read and your move will not be profitable.

Delayed continuation bets rarely work against very weak and/or inattentive opponents. They think a big bet = big hand, weak bet = weak hand, check = very weak hand, and will try to bluff you off your hand if you check on the flop fairly often, which makes this move more or less useless in the lower limits.

Delayed continuation bets are an instrument used to diffuse a dangerous situation and to keep the pot small.

PartyPoker No-Limit Hold'em (NL$400) (6 handed)

PT Stats:
Button – 23.7 / 16.8 / 8.3 / 19.5 (A loose aggressive regular at this limit. He often calls or raises your contibets.)
BB - 35.9 / 5.3 / 1.4 / 27.1 (A weak, loose passive player. He lost half a buy-in in the last hand calling down top pair with middle pair.)

Hero ($449.25)
Button ($646.75)
BB (218.77)

Pre-flop: Hero is CO with K, J.
2 folds, Hero raises to $14.00, Button calls $14.00, 1 folds, BB calls $10.

Flop: ($44) A, T, 8 (3 players)
BB checks, Hero?

This is a good spot to try a delayed continuation bet. The button is a strong, attentive opponent who rarely folds to a single (obvious) contibet, as you have seen in the past.

He will react cautiously to a check on this ace high board, since you had to give up several hands to him on the turn after contibetting the flop out of position. The BB is the passive type and you don't expect him to bet the turn without a strong hand if the BU checks the flop, as well. You might even get a free card and complete your gutshot. The board isn't very draw heavy, so you don't have to worry about giving your opponents a free card.

The hand proceeds as follows:

Scenario A:

Flop: ($44) A, T, 8 (3 players)
BB checks, Hero checks, Button checks.

Turn: ($44) 3 (3 players)
BB checks, Hero?

Neither opponent is signaling any strength. The turn card is a blank and not likely to have helped either opponent. You can follow through with your plan and place a 2/3 pot (app. $30) delayed continuation bet.

Scenario B:

Flop: ($44) A, T, 8 (3 players)
BB checks, Hero checks, Button checks.

Turn: ($44) 9 (3 players)
BB bets $40, Hero?

The otherwise so passive BB makes a 1/2 pot bet on the turn. The turn card itself could have completed two straight draws or two pairs (98/T9). You have no choice but to fold.

Now, you might think it would have been better to contibet the flop, but this is not so. Remember what we said about the BU. You also have to assume the BB hit something on the flop. And your notes say he isn't likely to fold when he has something. You would have lost even more.

The main reason for not contibetting the flop is your poor position, sandwiched between two opponents, and out of position against the aggressive BU. Changing the parameters creates a very different situation:

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em (NL$400) (6 handed)

PT Stats: CO – 23.7 / 6.8 / 2.3 / 19.5 (A semi-loose passive opponent. No specific reads.)
BB - 35.9 / 5.3 / 1.4 / 27.1 (A weak, loose passive player. He lost half a buy-in in the last hand calling down top pair with middle pair.)

Hero ($449.25)
CO ($646.75)
BB (218.77)

Pre-flop: Hero is Button with K, J.
2 folds, CO calls $4.00, Hero raises to $16.00, 1 folds, BB calls $12, CO calls $12.

Flop: ($50) A, T, 8 (3 players)
BB checks, CO checks, Hero?

The following has changed: The aggressive opponent is now much more passive. You have position on both opponents and additional outs for a backdoor flush draw. With these new factors you now have a good spot for a contibet on the flop. You have much more fold equity against these two weaker opponents. If you get called, you will often be able to take a free card on the turn. You have better chances at hitting an out for a cheap price when you contibet the flop.

As you have seen, delayed continuation bets are strongly oriented on your opponents and the situation at hand. You also have to be sure that your check rouses enough suspicion for you to be able to bet the turn. If your opponents aren't paying enough attention to the game or simply see your check for what it really is - a sign of weakness - you can't expect delayed contibets to be profitable.

Keep in mind that delayed continuation bets are much more effective when you are in position than out of position. This is because your opponents will have signaled weakness twice before you can place a delayed continuation bet in position. When you are out of position, you will have only seen him signal weakness once. You should generally be more cautious when you are out of position and the same is true when it comes to continuation bets.

The 2nd barrel

Sometimes it can be profitable to bet again on the turn without having improved. This type of bluff is called a 2nd barrel, since you have to fire twice before your opponent is willing to give up his hand.

When an opponent calls your contibet on the flop, he is saying that he either has a made hand or a strong draw and thinks he has a good chance at winning the hand. His call could also be an attempt to float, i.e. he calls your contibet thinking it is a standard move (and that you don't really have a strong hand) and that he may be able to win the hand with a bluff on the turn. In both instances your opponent is convinced that you have a rather weak hand. You're going to have to look for an advantageous situation if you're going to convince him of otherwise on the turn.

The factors that determine whether or not a second bluff on the turn is likely to succeed are the same that determine whether or not a regular continuation bet is likely to succeed: The board texture, additional outs, number/type of opponent(s) and your own image. The probability of winning with a bluff/continuation bet is also determined in the same manner.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em (NL$200) (5 handed)

PT Stats: Button – 23.7 / 8.8 / 1.8 / 24.5 (A semi-loose passive opponent. No specific reads.)

Hero ($222.21)
Button ($146.95)

Pre-flop: Hero is MP with A, Q.
1 folds, Hero raises to $7.00, Button calls $7, 2 folds.

Flop: ($17) 2, 8, 6 (2 players)
Hero bets $10, Button calls $10.

Turn: ($37) K (2 players)
Hero?

This is a good spot to bluff again on the turn. Your opponent is neither too loose, nor too aggressive and he probably didn't have a strong hand on the flop after having cold called your pre-flop raise. You are likely facing overcards or a small pocket pair.

If he didn't hit the K (and isn't slowplaying a monster) you can almost certainly represent top pair with a bet and buy the pot. And if you get called, you still have a few outs (aces, possibly queens). 2/3 pot (app. $25) should do the job.

This would correspond to 378:25, or 1.5:1 pot odds. You would have to win the pot 40% of the time for this move to be +EV, which should be the case. This is without taking your additional outs and the possibility of being ahead (against 97, for example) into account, so the result should be even more positive.

A 2 barrel bluff is a way of continuing a continuation bet, but it is only effective in suitable situations (like the one above) and when facing just one opponent. If two or more opponents stay in the hand after you contibet the flop, you can almost always be certain that one of them has a strong hand and won't be giving it up to a second bet on the turn.

Now for a look at an example of when you should not fire a 2nd barrel:

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em (NL$200) (5 handed)

PT Stats:
BB – 43.9 / 3.5 / 0.8 / 40.7

Hero ($222.21)
BB ($146.95)

Pre-flop: Hero is MP with A, Q.
1 folds, Hero raises to $7.00, 2 folds, BB calls $5.00.

Flop: ($15) 2, 8, 6 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $10, BB calls $10.

Turn: ($37) J (2 players)
BB checks, Hero?

You can (barely) justify firing a continuation bet on the flop on this relatively safe board against a calling station, but doing so again on the turn would only prove futile. Your opponent has indicated that he hit something on the flop, or that he at least has a small pocket pair or a drawing hand. Either way, chances are you won't be able to make him fold.

Checking behind and taking the free card is a better option. You might hit one of your outs or be able to take your hand to the showdown against a busted draw or weaker ace without incurring any further costs. The main reason not to bet again, however, is your insufficient fold equity.

You will at times, particularly when facing weak opponents, be ahead on the flop without having hit.

Hero has A K. Villain has 8 9.

The flop is: Q 7 5.

A classic spot for a continuation bet. Your continuation bet turns even into a value bet when you get called by an opponent chasing a gutshot draw. You are a clear favorite on the flop (2:1) based on equity. Of course, your hand doesn't have the highest playability, so you shouldn't be too optimistic every time you find yourself in such a situation, but there is often hidden value in such situations when facing weak and/or very passive opponents.

This should just be noted on the side. An in depth mathematical look at this situation would have little to do with our subject of continuation bets. You should simply see that the border between value bet and continuation bet can be a bit grey. There can also be value in a standard continuation bet, especially when facing weak, loose and passive opponents.

Conclusion

No Limit Hold'em is a game that requires constant analysis and re-analysis. The same can be said when it comes to continuation bets. The decisive factors are: the board texture, your image, your position, your outs, and, as always, the number/type of opponent(s) and their respective hand ranges.

Estimating your opponents' hand ranges and anticipating how they will (re)act is very important. You will learn to do this in time as you gain more and more experience.

If you find yourself in a hairy situation and aren't sure whether or not you should contibet, take the passive route and take a look back at the hand at the end of the session (or better yet, post in the Hand Evaluation Forum). You'll know what to do next time you find yourself in a similar situation.

And as with any bluff or variation of bluff: Don't over do it. A good bluff comes unexpected. If you contibet every flop, your opponents will know what you are doing and have an easier time playing against you.

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