AK and QQ Preflop at the Low Limits (3) - Your Opponents
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Now that you've learned a lot about various constellations and equity with these starting hands, it's time to concentrate on your opponents.
Against who do you want to play aggressively, against who might it be wiser to already commit the entire stack preflop?
Who do you want to play against?
This question is easy to answer: "against bad players".
But this is keeping it very general, particularly because you "only" want to examine two specific hands.
Imagine you're holding the aces preflop and you raise. Then you take a look at all your opponents at the table. If someone would pose the question, "From which player would you most like to see action?", the answer would be, "I don't care, I just hope one of them is holding KK, QQ or AK and goes broke".
And the same applies to these hands. It's not about using tricky postflop play here or about getting your opponents to fold. The focus here is on not making any major mistakes with these two strong starting hands preflop, but to make some rough estimates of ranges.
- Question 1: Can you go broke preflop without worrying?
- Question 2: If you can't, what is the alternative?
The differences between your opponents
A number of articles and columns have already been written on how to categorise your opponents. So we'll just roughly sum up the four "standard opponents":
It's generally a good thing to have a calling station in the hand, but their main characteristic are their excellent calls. They are less likely to pull off wild preflop plays.
Limps or limp/call plays are their trademarks. These players like to see the flop. If these players start 3-betting or even 4-betting (pushing), caution is recommended.
The rock plays few hands and doesn't even play these aggressively either. Whereas calling stations tend to over-play marginal hands (simply because they generally play many more hands), the rock is the tightest player at the table, who will not make himself conspicuous by bluffing or making big plays for value.
The same rule as used for a calling station is applied here: When you notice a lot of aggression, you should ease off the gas.
The TAG is the regular player at your limit, and will usually have a playing style similar to your own. He will, however, probably have less knowledge about important assumptions than you do.
He can play aggressively, he can bluff and he can pay attention to balancing. He will probably not only observe how you play, but also take the stats into consideration. When having to make difficult decisions he will particularly consult stats such as 3-bets and 4-bets.
In this case you should not consider finding tough folds that often.
There are of course big differences between a LAG and a maniac, but when it comes to preflop play with QQ/KK you can practically put them on a par. They play very aggressively preflop, attempt to take advantage of the weakness of some players and are capable of not only placing some loose 3-bets, but also of throwing in some 4-bets and pushes with marginal hands (which may make sense when there is fold equity + pot equity).
You should generally never fold AK and QQ against these players.
Stats and their significance
Ideally you will have a program that delivers stats directly to your table, such as the Elephant.
The question is, which stats are helpful?
In order not to overcomplicate things, you should concentrate on the following three main elements:
- Open-raising behaviour
- 3-betting behaviour
- 4-betting behaviour
The open-raising stat represents the percentage of hands that your opponent usually plays aggressively. This is the first important clue.
When using the Equilator you should give some serious thought to these ranges: they are not always the top % ranges, and that goes for the 3-bets and 4-bets too.
Other starting hands are sometimes included as well, from the pure standpoint of bluffs and semi-bluffs.
The following are a few possible open-raising ranges (VPIP / PFR in brackets):
- Calling station (40/10): QQ+, A9s+, KJs+, A8o+, KJo+ (10.71%)
Calling stations like Ax and Kx hands, whereas hands like medium pocket pairs or suited connectors prefer to limp/call. - Rock (9/5): TT+, AQs+, AQo+ (4.68%)
A rock is probably the most honest player. Anyone who plays as few hands as he does can't make room for (semi) bluffs. - TAG (17/13): 55+, A9s+, KJs+, QTs+, J9s+, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, 54s, AJo+, KQo (13.27%)
A TAG has a wide range. Besides raising his strong hands he'll just as likely raise many speculative hands such as pocket pairs and suited connectors. - LAG / Maniac (30/25): 22+, A4s+, K9s+, Q9s+, J8s+, T8s+, 97s+, 86s+, 75s+, 64s+, 54s, ATo+, KTo+, QJo, T9o, 98o, 87° (25.19%) A very loose player has very wide ranges and will also raise a lot of hands with low equity.
If you now compare the ranges, you can see huge differences. That's why you always need to pay particularly close attention to the PFR stat.
As you are basically dealing with a preflop all-in, the 3-bet stat is of course important. What ranges can you expect there? You've raised and one of these players 3-bets you. But what is he holding?
PartyPoker $10 NL Hold'em (10-handed)
Stacks & Stats
UTG ($10)
UTG+1 ($10)
UTG+2 ($10)
MP ($10)
MP1 ($10)
Hero ($10)
CO ($10)
BU ($10) Villain
SB ($10)
BB ($10)
Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A
, K
5 folds, Hero raises to $0.40, 1 fold, BU raises to $1.20, 2 folds, Hero…
In the following: Opponent (VPIP / PFR / 3-bet stat*)
Before we present you with a number of possible ranges, let's digress briefly:
Most programs are able to provide you with the position stats. Normally you just have to go to the 3-bet stat on the HUD and it will show you how much Villain 3-bets from what position.
This might look like this for example:
3-bet stat: 6%
Early position: 1%
Middle position: 3%
Late position: 10%
Blinds: 4%
This tells you how much your opponent raises from what position. This can make a big difference: If a player 3-bets in 6% of the cases overall, this doesn't mean that he will 3-bet light against you from middle position.
There are opponents who 3-bet a lot in position, but hardly ever out of position. If you've raised UTG and a player with a blind 3-bet stat of 0 or 1 3-bets to you, you have to be careful, regardless of whether he has an overall value of 5% or more for his 3-bets. So these stats are very important, and we will therefore specify the example now:
In the following: Opponent (VPIP / PFR / 3-bet stat on the button)
- Calling station (40/10/3): QQ+, AJs+, AKo (3.17%)
A calling station is not a big fan of light 3-bets, as he is naturally not in his element there. However, these players are quite capable of over-playing a hand. Hands such as jacks just want to see the flop first of all, whereas the situation looks a lot better for AQs. - Rock (9/5/2): QQ+, AKs (1.66%)
The rock just remains honest here. What else can he do? - TAG (17/13/8): TT+, 22, AJs+, A5s-A4s, KQs, 87s, 76s, 65s, 54s, AKo, A4o, KQo (8.45%)
With a TAG, however, you're dealing with diffuse ranges. Just because hands such as 99- have good chances equitywise, he will still rarely 3-bet them. He 3-bets for value to go broke with these hands, he (semi) bluffs with suited connectors, suited aces or pocket pairs or plays a pure bluff, as he reckons the fold equity looks good enough (e.g. A4o). - LAG / Maniac (30/25/13): 99+, 22, A9s+, A6s-A4s, KJs+, 87s, 76s, 65s, 54s, AJo+, A8o, A4o, KJo+ (13.73%)
The 3-bet range is simply huge for these kinds of players. It will include many bluffs and semi-bluffs, and you can't give Villain too much credit here.
PartyPoker $10 NL Hold'em (10-handed)
Stacks & Stats
UTG ($10)
UTG+1 ($10)
UTG+2 ($10)
MP ($10)
MP1 ($10)
MP2 ($10)
CO ($10)
BU ($10) Villain
SB ($10)
Hero ($10)
Preflop: Hero is BB with Q , Q
7 folds, BU raises to $0.40, 1 fold, Hero raises to $1.30, BU raises to $2.90, Hero…
In this case you are faced with two important criteria at the same time: On the one hand you'd like to analyse the ranges and see what your chances are with your queens here.
On the other hand you should already be familiar with this play: If you 3-bet in a spot like this, you shouldn't fold to the 4-bet. And that's correct. This illustrates that there are indeed no standard 3-bets.
The 4-bet value in itself is not very easy to calculate, as the PFR and the 3-bet stat are always based on the total number of hands. The 4-bet value however is only based on spots where Villain actually had the opportunity to 4-bet, however. Obviously this will not always have been the case.
That's why there is not only the 4-bet stat, but also the 4-betting range. This percentage indicates his exact range.
Possible 4-bet ranges: (VPIP / PFR / 3-bet value / 4-betting range)
- Calling station (40/10/3/2.5): QQ+, AKs, AKo (2.56%)
- Rock (9/5/2/1): KK+ (0.90%)
- TAG (17/13/8/3.5): JJ+, AQs+, A5s, AKo (3.62%)
- LAG / Maniac (30/25/12/6): 99+, AJs+, A6s-A5s, AQo+ (6.03%)
When playing against TAG and LAG players you will face a 4-betting range that will make it practically impossible for you to fold QQ/KK. They will try to bluff from time to time, which will usually make their range wider. While the TAG may also go broke with jacks, the maniac will call your all-in with even more hands. 3-bet/broke should be a good play here.
You're not in a very good situation against the rock and the calling station, however. If you 3-bet and get a 4-bet, you'll have to ask yourself whether you can still go broke profitably here. Even if the alternative may seem strange, you shouldn't 3-bet in the first place if you see yourself behind against his 4-betting range or his broke range. It can't really be value play against the rock, but it certainly against the calling station, as he definitely calls more 3-bets than the rock.
These stats are also important for you. What will a player fold to your aggression?
This is not only decisive when trying to uncover possible bluff 3-bets and bluff 4-bets, but just as interesting for your value play:
PartyPoker $10 NL Hold'em (10-handed)
Stacks & Stats
UTG ($10)
UTG+1 ($10)
UTG+2 ($10)
MP ($10) Villain
MP1 ($10)
MP2 ($10)
CO ($10)
BU ($10)
SB ($10)
Hero ($10)
Preflop: Hero is BB with A , K
3 folds, MP raises to $0.40, 5 folds, Hero raises to $1.30...
Now let's take a look at our two problem cases: the rock and the calling station.
The rock (9/5/2/1) has a fold-to-3-bet stat of 80, the calling station (40/10/3/2.5) has a value of 20.
So you know that the rock will fold practically everything apart from the nuts, and his 4-betting range is – as analysed above – extremely strong. Why would you 3-bet here?
How about a call?
His open-raising range was also analysed: TT+, AQs+, AQo+
| Equity analysis | |||||
| Equity | Win | Split | Loss | Hand | |
| Player 1 | 50.83% | 40.51% | 20.64% | 38.86% | TT+, AQs+, AQo+ |
| Player 2 | 49.18% | 38.86% | 20.64% | 40.51% | A K |
You can find a call here.
The calling station on the other hand doesn't fold to 3-bets much here, and so the probability that he will call dominated hands such as AQ, AJ or KQ to your 3-bet is much higher. Therefore a 3-bet gets a lot more value here.
You should always keep balancing in the back of your mind, but at the same time you also have to try to make +EV decisions wherever possible. So look at the following spot at the end and analyse it for yourself:
PartyPoker $10 NL Hold'em (10-handed)
Stacks & Stats
UTG ($10)
UTG+1 ($10)
UTG+2 ($10)
MP ($10) (9/5/2/1/ fold-to-3-bet 80)
MP1 ($10)
MP2 ($10)
CO ($10)
BU ($10)
SB ($10)
Hero ($10)
Preflop: Hero is BB with K , 2
3 folds, MP raises to $0.40, 5 folds, Hero raises to $1.30?
Would a 3-bet be wise in this spot?
| » SUMMARY |
| You've examined many different types of opponents now, have gathered some experience with stats and have learned that a % range is not equal to the top % range.
It is important to play with these ranges and it should help you in many spots, although when it comes to preflop play with AK/QQ you're really only making a simple interpretation. In the next and last part of this series we will be looking at examples of various spots with different opponents. |
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