To Bet or Not To Bet (2)

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To Bet or Not To Bet (2)

by MiiWiin

In the first part, we looked at an introduction to this problem. At the end you were hopefully convinced that a bluff bet in this kind of spot isn't successful often enough.

This naturally gives rise to the question of alternatives, that is, of other plays.

Overview:

• What are dry boards?
• Consideration of opponents/stats
• What are the paramount problems there?
• Balancing/deception
• When should you bet and when shouldn't you?
• How can you bluff?
• How can you extract the maximum value?
• The way ahead - way behind principle
• Turn and river play after a bet on the flop
• Turn and river play after a check on the flop
• Marginal holdings
• How to play out of position
• How do you play as the preflop aggressor?
• Multi-way pots
• 3-betted pots
• What happens if Villain bets?

Balancing/deception

$25 NL Hold'em (6-handed)

Stacks & Stats
UTG ($25)
MP ($25)
CO ($25)
Hero ($25)
SB ($25)
BB ($25)

Preflop: Hero is BU with
UTG raises $0.75, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.75, 2 folds

Flop: ($1.85) (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($1.85) (2 players)
UTG...

The subject of balancing and deception should generally not be foremost when making your decisions here. In any case, this can only work if your opponent really pays attention to what you do and realises at the end, with what you do it. 

You should be aware that for this, you need to have played a lot of hands with the opponent, until he's seen enough hands from you to get an impression of you.

However, these spots come up a lot (as opposed to a check raise river on drawy boards on your part, where little balancing is required, as you'll get this spot against this opponent maybe two or three times in your life).

You know your opponent is a thinking player. You can guess what he'll check with on the flop. But how will he interpret your check behind?

This topic can hardly be summarised, that's why throughout the following points, this topic will always be addressed on the side.

What you should take with you: you haven't always got air in this spot, sometimes you'll have Kx, middle pairs or sets. Equally, you can't just give up every dry flop blind, that should definitely not be the statement.

But always bear in mind that your opponent will also make his own opinion about your playing style.

When should you bet and when shouldn't you?

We've just broached this question: should the analysis up to now give rise to the conclusion that you should check behind your range here 100% of the time? Shouldn't you ever bluff, or thinly value bet or try to extract value with strong hands?

If you believe your opponent's ranges and a normal playing style, the answer will tend towards 'yes'.

In theory, you could check behind all of these flops to perfectly balance your game. If you start betting for value, you'll have to take bluffs into your range as well. You may extract a bit more value with your value plays (albeit against a small range), but the success of your bluff bet will melt into no man's land.

In general, it's incredibly important to have a game plan. If you bet on the flop for value because you're scared of missing out on a big pot, you need to ask yourself: which weaker hands will pay out to you across three streets?

It's not a mistake to bet with 88 here but the range that calls thrice up to the showdown won't be a massive one. Your losses will be within reason.

If your bluff bet fails on the flop, you've still got good chances at winning the pot by barrelling again. This ultimately leads to big pots in which you'll need to use two or three barrels.

Estimating this is difficult. You've seen Villain's five main ranges, however you can hardly assess how he continues to play them on the turn and the river, or how far he's willing to go each time with his hand.

How can you bluff?

In order to bluff in this spot, you need to make two assumptions: on one hand, about the probability that your opponent will make a direct fold on the flop, on the other, about the distribution of ranges.

The fold equity has already been evaluated, it won't be 40% on the flop. So the only flop bet will be -EV.

His range distribution means that you get an impression of what your opponent most likes to check the flop with.

With some opponents, these checks are often traps, they'll barely be able to separate themselves from their hand. As a consequence, you don't bluff at all.

All that's left now is the distribution of marginal hands, good hands and nuts. There's a possibility of getting good and marginal hands out of the pot up to the river. For this, of course, you'll have to assume they'll be frequent enough.

Now you need to draw an inverse conclusion: your opponent is holding a marginal to good hand from the first part, this has  the rough range Kx, QQ-99, 8x.

What does your opponent hope to achieve with this hand?

• He doesn't want to value bet the flop
• He doesn't want to play in a big pot
• He wants you to be less aggressive

Your opponent wants to take his hand to the showdown as cheaply as possible and that's precisely where you need to bet. If you bet the flop, you'll also have to bet the turn. The turn won't change anything, there can't be a scarecard and there aren't any cards that improve your hand (except for the 9, which still gives you an open-ended straight draw). However, in this case it doesn't make a difference.

So there are three scenarios:

• You bet the flop
• You check the flop, Villain checks the turn
• You check the flop, Villain bets the turn

$25 NL Hold'em (6-handed)

Stacks & Stats
UTG ($25)
MP ($25)
CO ($25)
Hero ($25)
SB ($25)
BB ($25)

Preflop: Hero is BU with
UTG raises $0.75, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.75, 2 fold

Flop: ($1.85) (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $1.30, UTG calls $1.30

Turn: ($4.45) (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $3.10, UTG...

The 3 won't help you, no chance. Nor will it your opponent, but you're both aware of that. Your opponent will only be happy if he traps here. However, he has a very difficult decision with a lot of other hands.

• He's playing out of position
• He's holding a mediocre hand
• He has to assume that you'll 3rd barrel on the river

If your opponent has checked hands such as KJ, JJ, 87s etc. on the flop here, then he's hoping to prevent one thing: a big pot, just like the one you're building.

"Never stop a bluff"; in this case it's true. If you regularly put your opponent on these hand groups, then see it through.

$25 NL Hold'em (6-handed)

Stacks & Stats
UTG ($25)
MP ($25)
CO ($25)
Hero ($25)
SB ($25)
BB ($25)

Preflop: Hero is BU with
UTG raises $0.75, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.75, 2 fold

Flop: ($1.85) (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($1.85) (2 players)
UTG bets $1.20, Hero raises to $3.60, UTG...

Hardly anything's changed with the range. Provided your opponent's range doesn't have the nuts too often then he still has the same horrible decision to make as in the last example.

You need to be aware that weak Kx hands and QQ-99, 8x, 77- make up the majority of his range here. He made a delayed contibet on the turn in order to extract some value and in the hope that you'll give him a really weak range and will still call with weaker hands here.

However, your opponent certainly doesn't want to see a raise, you've foiled his plan again with the small pot. It's completely irrelevant that you can't sell the 3. You don't want to anyway. You're representing a really strong range here, if a thin one.

Always put yourself in your opponent's position. Think about part 1, where you could briefly think about how little you want to see a raise with KQ on a K82 rainbow flop. Yes, your opponent isn't selling a lot, still the game is right on the edge, he's put you under pressure and, out of position, you'll have a disadvantage throughout the whole hand.

You can't stand it when your good hands, which are a long way off the nuts, get raised. If you don't like these spots (and nobody does, as they're very difficult to judge and also generally end up with a lot of variance), then put the same pressure on your opponent.

$25 NL Hold'em (6-handed)

Stacks & Stats
UTG ($25)
MP ($25)
CO ($25)
Hero ($25)
SB ($25)
BB ($25)

Preflop: Hero is BU with
UTG raises $0.75, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.75, 2 fold

Flop: ($1.85) (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($1.85) (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero...

Opinions vary here. Somehow, it appears that your opponent really is holding nothing. The principle "who bets first wins the pot" seems up in the air here, however, there's no clear bluff bet. In fact, quite the opposite.

Take a look at the ranges we've given your opponent. Consider what he checks and bets on the flop and the turn. Don't forget, your opponent doesn't seem to want a big pot.

Would you rather raise the turn in example 3 or bet the turn in example 4? Which will be more successful?

That's why in example 4, it's entirely possible to see your opponent's check as so strong that you decide against a bluff.

Your opponent can check/call here and is just one street away from the showdown, there's no big pot looming anymore. You can certainly suspect a big check/calling range, as apart from the small pot with his marginal hand, your opponent has other advantages:

• You'll bluff bet the turn now and again
• You'll value bet weaker hands now and again

So he's reached his goal.

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Related articles: To Bet or Not To Bet (1) To Bet or Not To Bet (3) To Bet or Not To Bet (4) To Bet or Not To Bet (5)