To Bet or Not to Bet (3)
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To Bet or Not to Bet (3)
by MiiWiin
In this series, you've seen how you could play bluffs should you encounter a check from your opponent on such boards.
It goes without saying that the same question also applies for the value play. Moreover, the way ahead - way behind principle comes into play; such spots are ideal to exemplify this principle.
Overview:
- What are dry boards?
- Illustrate opponents/stats
- Which problems are paramount here?
- Balancing/deception
- When should you bet, when shouldn't you?
- How can you bluff?
- How can you extract maximum value?
- The way ahead - way behind principle
- Turn and river play following a bet on the flop
- Turn and river play following a check on the flop
- Marginal holdings
- How do you play out of position
- How do you play as the preflop aggressor?
- Multi-way pots
- 3-bet pots
- What happens if Villain bets?
How can you extract maximum value?
The question of extracting maximum value is present in almost every spot in which you've hit something useable.
This fundamental concept alone is so important that it doesn't support you checking behind a set on a flop such as this one. Nonetheless, you want Villain's stack. You may want to justify a possible call for set value preflop. How can you check behind the flop here?
$25 NL Hold'em (6-handed)
Stacks & Stats
UTG ($25)
MP ($25)
CO ($25)
Hero ($25)
SB ($25)
BB ($25)
Preflop: Hero is BU with 
UTG raises $0.75, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.75, 2 folds
Flop: ($1.85) 
(2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks
Turn: ($1.85) 
(2 players)
UTG...
The check here feels wrong. The pot remains small, but clearly, you don't want that. What can you do now?
Some notes on the subject:
Balancing:
As seen in the previous part, the argument is for a check behind on a board such as this. In the ideal balancing instance, this affects all spots, regardless of whether you have air, a marginal made hand or the nuts.
Of course, you can bet in these spots, but then you should be careful what you bet. If you bet sets here, then bet weak hands as well and bluffs now and again. Just don't forget that a sole bluff bet on the flop seen in isolation could well be -EV (see part 2).
Limited value / maximum value:
Let's look at a further value bet illustration here.
Your value is limited in most cases, you need to be constantly aware of this. This means it's very rare that you're holding a very strong hand and that your opponent is holding a strong (albeit weaker) hand as well, with which he completely pays out to you.
Every beginner should be advised to: "keep betting if you're holding something good."
It's a good tip and only rarely actually false, but it's precisely these spots that you can now give further consideration to. You're holding a set and bet the flop, the turn and the river and Villain totally pays out to you on three streets. What could he do this with?
If you can think of three hands straight away here then good work! You could name AA/AK/KQ, albeit with the clear recognition that most of these hands would certainly bet the flop and check/call across three streets would be a strange play.
What comes afterwards? KJ, QQ... you simply need to decide, there aren't many hands which will readily call down until the river here.
Thus, in most cases, your value extraction is limited, you simply can't extract any more. If your opponent is holding something marginal, you need to work in small steps and not blindly power through compulsively.
That's why it would be a tough argument to say here: "with a check on the flop I'm losing value".
Maximum value:
Ultimately, the overall goal is still to extract as much EV as possible from a hand with a chosen line.
This point too is clearly in favour of careful consideration as to whether the EV of a bet is really higher than the EV of a check.
As mentioned, you can and must declare the bet on the flop, provided you place it, as a clear value bet. However, does it also have as high an EV as possible?
Imagine an opponent that you know gives up a lot of pots out of position straight away, but fires away blindly in the face of weakness from the opponent. If these assumptions were correct for a large sample size, the highest possible EV line would be check flop, call turn, raise river.
If you check the flop, Villain will stay in the hand and will not fold his weaker hands that might (bluff-) bet the turn and river, where you will raise him. Whether or not Villain actually has a hand at that point with which he can call is a different story.
Unfortunately, you rarely get such precise reads, nonetheless, you need to make assumptions. In these spots you need to roughly estimate the EV for the whole hand and consider what might happen on the turn and the river.
Looking at the flop in isolation achieves relatively little here, as it would certainly mean ascertaing that EV (bet) > EV (check).
Way ahead - way behind
This is a ubiquitous phrase in day to day poker life. It seems that every spot in which a player is unsure and likely to decide on a check is called a way ahead – way behind spot now.
Initially, way ahead - way behind spots were very clearly defined: there couldn't be any possible drawing hands.
This is impossible on just about every board, there's always some sort of draw hanging about. Straight draws are often possible, even on a rainbow flop; an opponent could even be holding over-cards on a 26J rainbow flop. There are rarely truly clean way ahead - way behind spots.
On this flop however, you find yourself in just such a spot. There are no flush draws, no straight draws and an A/K high flop which rules out overcards.
That's why it's worth taking another look at the way ahead - way behind principle:
- Way ahead - way behind means playing check/call on all streets
- You want to see value bets from weaker hands
- You want to get bluff bets from very weak hands
- You want to lose as little as possible against stronger hands
You should now be able to nod and accept these spots, this isn't new territory for you anyway. Only, strictly speaking, you haven't yet been introduced to a way ahead - way behind spot yet in this series.
Up to now, you've experienced situations on the flop where you either have air or a very strong hand. It makes little sense here to call down with the bluff and not to raise the strong hand on any street (even if that might be on the river at the latest).
Despite everything, these thoughts should always be in the back of your mind, your opponent is a thinking player and he'll recognise this spot as way ahead - way behind. He'll assign a special interpretation to your bet or check on the flop.
Turn and river play after a bet on the flop
$25 NL Hold'em (6-handed)
Stacks & Stats
UTG ($25)
MP ($25)
CO ($25)
Hero ($25)
SB ($25)
BB ($25)
Preflop: Hero is BU with X , X
UTG raises $0.75, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.75, 2 folds
Flop: ($1.85) (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $1.30, UTG calls $1.30
Turn: ($4.45) (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $3.10, UTG calls $3.10
River: ($10.65) 
(2 players)
UTG checks, Hero...
Here again, the basics of the game plan are decisive. You can't simply bet the flop then wait and see what happens in these spots. You need to consider how far you can push things with a bluff or how you can extract the most value if you hit something.
Thus, the first question is posed on the turn: does the 2nd barrel makes sense, even though your hands may have barely improved?
The answer is clear: yes!
You're already familiar with concepts on bluff bets and value bets. If you bet the flop as a bluff, you'll have to barrel again to bring your opponent down from his marginal holdings. We've already demonstrated that the flop bet alone is not +EV.
What about with a strong hand? Of course you can continue betting for value now, if you already started to on the flop.
That's why a 2nd barrel as a bluff here as well as for value, is certainly very appropriate. It's irrelevant that the turn card itself doesn't change anything. As explained in the previous part, this is almost always the case following such flops.
If the turn bet is placed, it can result in a river spot in some cases. Your opponent is playing way ahead - way behind here, whilst following the basic concepts from the section explained earlier.
One thing is clear: he's holding something. He won't have played check/call twice as a bluff in order to now check/raise as a bluff on the river. As this line should be very rare, he won't play it this way as a value line either (there are exceptions to the rule).
He has showdown value and wants to win as much as possible against your bluffs and lose the minimum against your strong hands.
If you're holding a strong hand, you have a clear bet. However, if you're holding nothing, you arrive at precisely the problem spots brought up in part 1. If you bet the flop, you'll generally need to multi-barrel. This ultimately leads you to high variance spots which are difficult to assess.
Is a 3rd barrel on the river worth it? Maybe, maybe not. The pot is big, the bluff bet is expensive, Villain's range can be wide. Even if you're sure that he's sitting on a marginal hand, you can't say with certainty whether he'll put it away after a 3rd barrel.
These spots come down to the little things. It depends on what kind of image Villain has of you. Has he already seen you bet three times? If yes, what with? Have you already played a set in a similar way? Or were you caught out on a bluff and got called down?
These situations are marginal and hard to evaluate, unfortunately, in most cases, this means Villain's way ahead - way behind principle is pushed to the limit. If you call the turn, you won't often be separated from your hand on the river on this type of board.
The big question is: can you really convince him of a strong hand?
| » SUMMARY |
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Slowly but surely, the gaps are closing. The way ahead - way behind principle generally applies in these spots, which is why you need to be able to assess what your opponent might be thinking when he checks or possibly selects a check/call line. Furthermore, you've seen the problem with multi-barrel bluffs. It's no great feat to bet through for value, however, estimating the fold equity against his range isn't particularly easy. In the next part, we look at lines if you checked the flop. Even here, the lines on the turn and the river are far from clear. Afterwards, we pick apart the final little problem areas: what do you do with marginal hands and how do you play out of position? |
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