River Value Bets (3) - In Position without Initiative

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River Value Bets (3) – In Position without Initiative

by MiiWiin

Even without initiative, the aim is to get as much as possible from a hand. Every missed value bet costs you money.

Nonetheless, it's important to assess your hand strength correctly so as not to place bets that mean you pay out to your opponents. It's difficult to estimate your opponent's range, especially in spots where you have to play without the initiative.

Options

Being on the river and taking the decision to value bet or not doesn't just happen. There need to be a lot of conditions in place first:

• You defended passively preflop
• You played passively and only called on the flop and the turn
• Your opponent plays way ahead - way behind, you bet on the turn yourself and thus take on the initiative
• Your opponent checks the river

You need to analyse the situation on the flop and the turn as precisely as possible. At the same time, it makes a big difference whether your opponent has barreled twice up to now, or if he switched to check/call at a previous point in time.

Check/call indicates that your opponent is holding something and is prepared to see the showdown. However, if he has barreled twice and checked the river, it's also possible that Villain was sitting on a bluff and now folds, or is also in check/call mode.

PartyPoker $25 NL Hold'em (6-handed)

Stacks & Stats
UTG ($25)
MP ($25)
CO ($25) (21/17/2.6/55) [VPIP / PFR / AF / ft3-bet]
Hero ($25)
SB ($25)
BB ($25)

Preflop: Hero is BU with
2 folds, CO raises $0.75, Hero calls $0.75, 2 folds

Flop: ($1.85) (2 players)
CO bets $1.40, Hero calls $1.40

Turn: ($4.65) (2 players)
CO bets $3.25, Hero calls $3.25

River: ($11.15) (2 players)
CO checks, Hero...

Preflop you decided to defend passively on the button. This is very possible here.

You hit your top pair on the flop, your opponent bets. There's no reason to raise here, as you should find a call. The same goes for the turn, a raise would be an overplay, a lot of worse hands will certainly not pay out to you here.

Now the check comes on the river and the question is, whether Villain could call a bet from your part again.

At a first glance, the situation seems clear: if you hit a top pair with KQ, you need to assume that you're holding a good hand. The fact that your opponent has barreled twice up to now doesn't say a lot. You're running against a really wide range here.

Preflop your opponent raises 17%, experience tells us it may be higher value at the cut-off, around 20% can certainly be assumed.

A possible range could look like this:

22+, A2s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, 54s, ATo+, KTo+, QTo+

So a call preflop should be fine, you're comfortably in the running, although not a favourite with KQo:

Equity analysis
Board
	Equity	Win	Split	Loss	Hand
Player 1	52.07%	49.68%	4.78%	45.54%	22+, A2s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, 54s, ATo+, KTo+, QTo+
Player 2	47.93%	45.54%	4.78%	49.68%

Here's the flop. You hit your top pair and of course are in a much better position:

Equity analysis
Board
	Equity	Win	Split	Loss	Hand
Player 1	22.16%	20.63%	3.06%	76.3%	22+, A2s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, 54s, ATo+, KTo+, QTo+
Player 2	77.84%	76.3%	3.06%	20.63%

In this spot, the flop is ideal for Villain, hardly any draws, a good board and a high card. It's a great flop for a continuation bet, that's why your opponent will regularly bet the flop very frequently in spots like these (almost regardless of how much he contibets overall).

The turn doesn't change a lot:

Equity analysis
Board
	Equity	Win	Split	Loss	Hand
Player 1	25.86%	24.39%	2.94%	72.67%	22+, A2s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, 54s, ATo+, KTo+, QTo+
Player 2	74.14%	72.67%	2.94%	24.39%

However, he won't always give up the 2nd barrel. Your call on the flop can mean everything here:

• You're holding a medium made hand and playing way ahead – way behind
• You could slowplay a very strong hand
• You could prepare a float
• You've only peeled once to fold to further action

For this reason, your opponent won't bet every hand again, in particular, he can easily fold hands without any kind of outs, as he doesn't give himself sufficient fold equity.

His turn-betting range could look like this:

Equity analysis
Board
	Equity	Win	Split	Loss	Hand
Player 1	29.94%	28.15%	3.57%	68.28%	66+, 33, A8s+, A6s, A3s, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, 76s, 65s, 54s, ATo+, KTo+, QTo+, , , , , , , ,
Player 2	70.06%	68.28%	3.57%	28.15%

Now there's a check on the river and the fact that you're clearly in front is beyond reproach:

Equity analysis
Board
	Equity	Win	Split	Loss	Hand
Player 1	21.56%	19.76%	3.59%	76.65%	66+, 33, A8s+, A6s, A3s, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, 76s, 65s, 54s, ATo+, KTo+, QTo+, , , , , , , ,
Player 2	78.43%	76.65%	3.59%	19.76%

As your opponent checks, he may be considering many options:

• He check/folds a weaker hand
• He check/calls a medium hand
• He check raises a very strong hand
• He check raises a bluff

You can forget the fourth option in this case. There is no indication that Villain will carry out this kind of bluff, moreover, other than 45s no draw will bust. Thus, you can't assume Villain will bluff here.

What other options are there?

Which hands can Villain check raise?

The sets QQ/TT/66/44 are all possible. Now and again a two pair such as QT. He can hardly bring in a lot more for value. Still, it would be wiser, should Villain actually bet these hands himself on the river. So you can assume that QQ and TT will bet, he's in a position to potentially check raise 50% of his sets.

What does your opponent check/call with? He won't give up a top pair, he'll probably check/call hands such as QTs+. The same goes for AA/KK, although he should rather bet these hands. That's why a check/call is only assumed for 50% of overpairs (AA), he should rather bet the remaining 50%, as the flop was drawless and you're more likely to be sitting on marginal hands than a draw.

The situation becomes a bit hairy with middle pairs; with hands such as AT or JJ, he's got a tricky decision. It's hard to estimate what your opponent will call out of these, here you also have the problem of the dry board. With which hands should you bluff here, so that Villain can profitably call these middle pairs?

His middle pair range is made up of JJ, QTo+, JTs+ (4.37%). He'll play check/call every fourth time with this, that's a pure assumption [JJ, ATs, KTs (1.06%)]. On a drawy board his c/c range would be significantly higher, as he believes you'll use bluffs in the form of busted draws often enough.

With that, the range is complete. He'll generally fold other hands, as mentioned, you shouldn't assume a bluff check raise here. If he doesn't barrel his weak hand/bluff a third time, he'll generally fold.

This means:

Equity analysis
Board
	Equity	Win	Split	Loss	Hand
Player 1	56.86%	50.98%	11.77%	37.26%	AA, JJ, 66, 44, AQs, ATs, KQs, KTs, QTs+, AQo, KQo, QTo+
Player 2	43.14%	37.26%	11.77%	50.98%

As you can see, you have 50% equity against his hands, which he won't fold. Thus, the value bet isn't especially clear. Unfortunately, there's no correct answer here as so much depends on the assumptions made.

Example: you know Villain to some extent and know that he'll value bet with his strong value hands, or every set, every overpair and QTo:

Equity analysis
Board
	Equity	Win	Split	Loss	Hand
Player 1	33.33%	24.24%	18.18%	57.58%	JJ, AQs, ATs, KQs, KTs, QJs, AQo, KQo, QJo
Player 2	66.67%	57.58%	18.18%	24.24%

With these assumptions, it's gradually becoming a value bet. Moreover, you need to consider here how you want to play these spots in general. Don't forget, if you check behind in this spot, you're giving away a lot of information:

• How did you play KQ postflop (passively)?
• How do you play top pairs such as these on the flop and the turn?
• You only check behind on the river with top pair.

Ultimately, this all tends to call for a bet, as even if Villain plays check/call with a better hand, he (and the rest of the table) have seen that you can bet lightly for value. This means you could get a bit more credit for a float in upcoming rounds.

The fact of the matter is: this is not a clear spot!

Bet size

If you decide to bet, you don't need to bet especially high. Ultimately, your bet is aimed in the first place at marginal holdings, weak Qx hands and middle pairs. These shouldn't be driven away by too high a bet.

Thus, just under half a pot size bet should be sufficient.

PartyPoker $25 NL Hold'em (6-handed)

Stacks & Stats
UTG ($25)
MP ($25)
CO ($25) (21/17/2.6/55) [VPIP / PFR / AF / ft3-bet]
Hero ($25)
SB ($25)
BB ($25)

Preflop: Hero is BU with
2 folds, CO raises $0.75, Hero calls $0.75, 2 folds

Flop: ($1.85) (2 players)
CO bets $1.40, Hero calls $1.40

Turn: ($4.65) (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $4.00, CO calls $4.00

River: ($12.65) (2 players)
CO checks, Hero...

A similar spot, albeit with different requirements:

• The flop turns up a flush draw
• A second possible draw appears on the turn
• Villain check/calls the turn, it looks like he wants to see the showdown

His check/call on the turn indicates that Villain is holding something. A draw is possible, however you should initially assume that this player is able to 2nd barrel a draw on the turn. Check/call isn't really profitable, the implied odds are missing. In addition, he will also have to play OOP on the river, without playing the given intiative.

So which hands can Villain check/call here?

• Middle pairs, 99, JJ, Tx are all possible
• Draws Villain still sees himself ahead (against weaker draws) with, e.g. all suited aces in or
• Weak top pairs such as QJ. Here, however, the question is also whether he won't bet these again himself. That's why only QJs combinations are taken
• Very rarely AQ/KQ. The AQs combinations will have to be enough, he should bet the rest himself

Now you're on the river against this range. The question as to whether you can value bet can now be answered almost without equity calculation: yes!

The reason is very simple: Villain is holding few pure flush draws which check/fold. In the same way, you can rule out traps in the form of slowplays if Villain check/calls sets or two pairs on the turn, it would be something akin to gross negligence.

The same goes for KK+. His range is weak but has showdown value. You don't need to assume that Villain will make Hero calls here with the numerous suited Ax hands, as he sees you on a worse draw.

A possible call is conceivable with . So his c/c range could look something like this on the river:

JJ, AQs, ATs, As6s, KTs, QJs, QTo

Equity analysis
Board
	Equity	Win	Split	Loss	Hand
Player 1	28.57%	28.57%	0%	71.43%	JJ, AQs, ATs, KTs, QJs, QTo,
Player 2	71.43%	71.43%	0%	28.57%

That's why you should make a value bet, Villain's range can be seen as weak, his turn play gives this away. At the same time however, he indicates interest in a showdown. You're in too strong a position with KQ to check behind against this range .

Bet size

In this spot your bet can be bigger. As all draws bust, it should look like you now want to start a bluff. Should Villain be in check/call mode here, as he didn't believe you had a strong hand on the turn (rather some draws, otherwise he couldn't check/call with marginal holdings), he won't do it on the river either. Your bet size can be around 2/3 pot size here, maybe even a little higher.

LINKS
Related articles: River Value Bets (1) - Basics River Value Bets (2) - In Position as PFA River Value Bets (4) - Out of Position River Value Bets (5) - Exception Spots Quiz: Value Bets IP vs. Tight Opponent Quiz: Value Bets IP vs. Calling Station