River Value Bets (4) - Out of Position

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River Value Bets (4) – Out of Position

by MiiWiin

Up to now you've become familiar with spots in which you can act in position. With the analyses, you've seen that this gives you a massive information advantage and makes it easier for you to determine whether you can profitably value bet or you should rather check behind.

Unfortunately, this isn't the case out of position.

Problems Out of Position

The problem on the river is clear: in the previous part, you could lean back, estimate Villain's range and then decide if you should place a bet or just accept a free showdown.

Out of position your opponent is due the last move. For you, this means taking several options into account:

• What can you value bet against?
• What can your opponent value bet against?

This gives you the option to play check/call instead of making a value bet, if you think your opponent could bluff or value bet weaker hands.

You could also check/fold, if you assume that Villain will only bet better cards.

Furthermore, you have the option of a check raise, should you be holding a strong hand and see Villain bluffing regularly (you'll still cash a bluff bet). Or if you see your opponent with a hand which will certainly bet on the river and may be in a position to call check raise on your part, but would only call your bet.

You notice it's a lot harder out of position, you need to weigh up all your options and wait to see how your opponent reacts.

PartyPoker $25 NL Hold'em (6-handed)

Stacks & Stats
UTG ($25)
MP ($25)
Hero ($25)
BU ($25) (22/18/2.7/7) [VPIP / PFR / AF / 3-bet BU]
SB ($25)
BB ($25)

Preflop: Hero is CO with
2 folds, Hero raises $0.75, BU calls $0.75, 2 folds

Flop: ($1.85) (2 players)
Hero bets $1.50, BU calls $1.50

Turn: ($4.85) (2 players)
Hero bets $4.00, BB calls $4.00

River: ($12.85) (2 players)
Hero...

The game up to the river is relatively clear. You're holding a strong hand and betting for value. All the draws bust on the river, what do you do now?

You could value bet or check. If you check, the question is whether you should fold or call to a bet.

What might your opponent be holding?

Preflop on the button, Villain may have called a wide range. The fact that he only finds a call on the flop and the turn indicates an acceptable made hand or a draw. You should generally assume that your opponent will have to protect hands such as 66/77, possibly also JJ, on the turn at the latest. However, you don't know this for certain. One out of three times a set could slow play here, so you give him 66.

Weak Jx hands are possible, KJ is conceivable as are QJ/JT, which your opponent initially wanted to play as a drawing hand and now finds himself with a top pair.

Slowplayed overpairs can never be ruled out, then it would depend on the blinds. If they were aggressive, the button could easily have called for a squeeze induce here. You can give him two combinations of QQ.

Middlepairs such as 88-TT are also in his range. He can certainly call twice on a drawy board and see himself ahead. You can give him 99/TT.

There are draws left. Flush draws and straight draws are possible here. However, it's clear that just calling for implieds will be really hard on the turn. Nonetheless, the board offers a lot of combo draws, whereas your opponent may have raised hands such as or on the flop. However, this is also not obligatory on his part.

Villain may have pictured being able to bluff you out on the river, as long as none of his draws turn up.

What range is Villain holding on the river?

99-TT, 66, AJs, KJs, QJs, JTs, 98s, 54s, AJo, KJo, QJo, QdQc, QdQh, AhQh, AhTh, Ah9h

Equity analysis
Board
	Equity	Win	Split	Loss	Hand
Player 1	76.92%	71.15%	11.54%	17.31%
Player 2	23.08%	17.31%	11.54%	71.15%	99-TT, 66, AJs, KJs, QJs, JTs, 98s, 54s, AJo, KJo, QJo, , , , ,

You're in an acceptable position against this. However, this still doesn't answer the question as to whether you should bet or not.

Could your opponent bluff when you check?

You need to take some things into consideration:

• If you bet, drawing hands will fold, however, Jx hands and middle pairs will call
• If you check, drawing hands are likely to bluff, but Jx hands and middle pairs will probably check behind

It's really difficult to work this dilemma out. Every read can be decisive here, if you know what Villain bets and what he can bluff, you're already a bit further. Taking a look at the river AF can certainly help, but it's not an optimal solution.

We'll stick with the range mentioned above. You can rule out bluff raises for a start.

If you bet, Villain may call (or raise) with the following:

Equity analysis
Board
	Equity	Win	Split	Loss	Hand
Player 1	72.09%	65.12%	13.95%	20.93%
Player 2	27.91%	20.93%	13.95%	65.12%	TT, 66, AJs, KJs, QJs, JTs, 98s, 54s, AJo, KJo, QJo, ,

If you check, what will Villain bet?

KJ would be a check behind in most cases. It will be difficult to bet for value for these hands. There are still busted draws, however your opponent will also realise that you regularly check on the river to induce a bluff. If you now assume that he bluffs up to 50%, it's an acceptable value.

Thus, Villain could bet the following on the river:

Equity analysis
Board
	Equity	Win	Split	Loss	Hand
Player 1	57.14%	42.86%	28.57%	28.57%	QQ, 66, AJs, 98s, AJo, , , ,
Player 2	42.86%	28.57%	28.57%	42.86%

You could of course check/call here with these odds.

Despite everything the decision here is pretty clear: you should bet yourself for value, there are worse hands your opponent could still call. Jx hands and middle pairs are in his range, but not very strong hands, they would have made themselves known on the turn.

Equally, you can't assume too many draws, lots of draws will be combo draws. Even if you can bluff bet Villain a couple of draws on the river, you have the problem on the other hand that many worse hands could simply check behind.

That's why you should bet yourself.

Bet size

You don't have to assume that your opponent will make a bluff raise here. So in the first instance, you're aiming to stop your opponent folding hands such as Jx or TT and possibly 99. He needs acceptable odds for this. A raise of just over ½  a pot size would be appropriate in this case.

PartyPoker $25 NL Hold'em (6-handed)

Stacks & Stats
UTG ($25)
MP ($25)
Hero ($25)
BU ($25) (40/5/0.7/1) [VPIP / PFR / AF / 3-bet BU]
SB ($25)
BB ($25)

Preflop: Hero is BU with
2 folds, Hero raises $0.75, BU calls $0.75, 2 folds

Flop: ($1.85) (2 players)
Hero bets $1.50, BU calls $1.50

Turn: ($4.85) (2 players)
Hero bets $4.00, BB calls $4.00

River: ($12.85) (2 players)
Hero...

The game against calling stations should be profitable in the long-term, however, precisely when you try to estimate opponents ranges, you'll often meet with dire problems. In the example above you're on the river with top pair against a player who could represent a very wide range here.

However, the range is open in both directions:

• He may have called down every set/two pair, value and protection ranges are often foreign concepts for such players
• Draws are often called against the odds
• Hands such as QQ+ occur a lot more frequently with this kind of player, although they themselves generally don't know where they stand (whether they only trap or are afraid and play way ahead - way behind)
• "Crazy hands" are possible, here these include J8o or 62s. Something like this is always possible

Nonetheless…

• …these players are very SD bound. A jack will never find a fold on the river here
• …middle pairs will fold just as reluctantly. Hands such as A7/A6/K7s are easily possible and will also be less than willing to fold on the river

Again, you have four options, although one shouldn't be included here: you can't play check/call profitably anymore. This kind of player doesn't bluff regularly, there are lots of draws and with the marginal hands that this player can easily be holding, he'll almost always check behind. If he bets, he'll also often have something and you won't be in a particularly good position against it with AJ. 

This gives you a choice between check/fold and bet/fold.

This feels like a clear bet, however it's very difficult to define the range, as Villain clearly doesn't play every strong hand like this (he'll also occassionally raise the flop and/or the turn).

A rough range could look like this:

QQ, 77-TT, AJs, A7s-A6s, KJs, K7s, QJs, J8s+, 98s, 76s, 54s, AJo, A7o, KJo, QJo, J9o+, KhTh, Kh9h, Kh5h

Equity analysis
Board
	Equity	Win	Split	Loss	Hand
Player 1	67.03%	63.74%	6.59%	29.67%
Player 2	32.97%	29.67%	6.59%	63.74%	QQ, 77-TT, AJs, A7s-A6s, KJs, K7s, QJs, J8s+, 98s, 76s, 54s, AJo, A7o, KJo, QJo, J9o+, , ,

You can't get away without placing a bet here. There are simply too many weaker hands with which your opponent will call again, although he'll rarely bet something weaker himself.

Bet size

In this case a type of block bet would be wise. Villain should call precisely these marginal holdings, as well as middle pairs, for this he needs acceptable odds. You might even push a player like this out of the pot with too hard a bet, so that he'll only stay in the pot if he has better hands.

A 1/3 pot size bet is quite appropriate here.

PartyPoker $25 NL Hold'em (6-handed)

Stacks & Stats
UTG ($25)
MP ($25)
Hero ($25)
BU ($25) (40/5/0.7/1) [VPIP / PFR / AF / 3-bet BU]
SB ($25)
BB ($25)

Preflop: Hero is BU with X, X
2 folds, Hero raises $0.75, BU calls $0.75, 2 folds

Flop: ($1.85) (2 players)
Hero bets $1.50, BU calls $1.50

Turn: ($4.85) (2 players)
Hero bets $4.00, BB calls $4.00

River: ($12.85) (2 players)
Hero...

The question is: in the assumptions above, which hand can you still bet for value here with confidence?

• Pocket tens:

Equity analysis
Board
	Equity	Win	Split	Loss	Hand
Player 1	26.07%	25.59%	0.95%	73.46%	TT
Player 2	73.93%	73.46%	0.95%	25.59%	QQ, 77-TT, AJs, A7s-A6s, KJs, K7s, QJs, J8s+, 98s, 76s, 54s, AJo, A7o,  KJo, QJo, J9o+, , ,

With a hand like this, all that's left on the river is check/fold. The love for top pairs means 2nd pairs aren't automatically three value bets, even against such players.

• JTs:

Equity analysis
Board
	Equity	Win	Split	Loss	Hand
Player 1	43.41%	40.66%	5.5%	53.85%
Player 2	56.59%	53.85%	5.5%	40.66%	QQ, 77-TT, AJs, A7s-A6s, KJs, K7s, QJs, J8s+, 98s, 76s, 54s, AJo, A7o, KJo, QJo, J9o+, , ,

It's tight to profitably value bet, even with this kicker. Most Jx hands have hit a better kicker or two pair. Here check/fold is the best choice as well.

• QJs:

QJs is the next best hand, with it you can still just about value bet, albeit not so thinly.

Equity analysis
Board
	Equity	Win	Split	Loss	Hand
Player 1	54.4%	51.65%	5.5%	42.86%
Player 2	45.6%	42.86%	5.5%	51.65%	QQ, 77-TT, AJs, A7s-A6s, KJs, K7s, QJs, J8s+, 98s, 76s, 54s, AJo, A7o, KJo, QJo, J9o+, , ,

Tips against calling stations

In these cases there's not much else to do other than making tough decisions:

Calling stations rarely bluff, nor do busted draws.

Therefore, check/call is rarely worthwhile.

Balancing is unimportant, so don't try check raises but really value bet.

Roughly estimate whether there really are lots of weaker hands which call. Not every unstable top pair will be enough for three value bets.

These opponents like to slowplay (and avoid protection), but call all their draws against all odds.

Vary your bet sizes on the river. If you give your opponent a weak range then place a bet so that your opponent can actually call a weak middle pair again.

LINKS
Related articles: River Value Bets (1) - Basics River Value Bets (2) - In Position as PFA River Value Bets (3) - In Position without Initiative River Value Bets (5) - Exception Spots Quiz: Value Bets IP vs. Tight Opponent Quiz: Value Bets IP vs. Calling Station