Who Do You Want to Squeeze Against?

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Who Do You Want to Squeeze Against?

by MiiWiin

In the previous part of this column, you were introduced to some basic ideas about "squeezing". You saw that it can be a profitable move with many advantages, including for your image and balancing of value lines.

It should also be clear that you cannot use this weapon against just any opponent. Today we will find out which opponents are potential victims.

Keep Watching Your Opponent

In most spots where you have to make a decision your attention is primarily on your opponent.

This is the case in a continuation bet in heads-up, for example, but also of course for all basic decisions postflop you find yourself making in heads-up. In the same way you use 3-bets and 4-bets frequently against your opponent.  

However, there are also spots where you don't just need to watch out for the opponent in front of you (i.e. the open raiser) but also the player behind you. So your attention isn't just focused on evaluating the player who has just carried out an action. You must also assess the player or players acting after you and predict their possible actions. 

So, how does this look in a squeeze?

PartyPoker $100 NL Hold'em (6-handed)

Stacks & Stats
UTG ($100)
MP ($100)
CO ($100)
Hero ($100)
SB ($100)
BB ($100)

Preflop: Hero is BU with X, X
UTG raises to $4.00, 1 fold, CO calls $4.00, Hero squeezes?, ...

Irrespective of your hand, this is a spot where you could theoretically squeeze without any problems. What's decisive here - besides your hand of course - is to evaluate your opponent and how you think they will react to a squeeze.

With the UTG and the CO, you already have two players in the pot. This is of course extremely important, as it is the aim of your squeeze to get both opponents to fold.

So why would the opponents behind you be important? The blinds will bluff push too rarely here. However, you always have alternatives. For example, you could have a hand here that you would like to play in position.

If you come to the conclusion however that one of the blinds is so aggressive that he will often squeeze, then you shouldn't. In this case, you won't be able to enjoy the advantage of playing in position in a multi-way pot. You have to take this into consideration for your decision.

Important stats

We don't want to carry out a detailed analysis of each player type now. Of course you should squeeze against players who can fold a hand (TAGs, LAGs, rocks). Although, this would make little sense against players who really don't like to fold preflop (calling stations) or who will make a move too often (maniacs).

The following stats are relevant:

• PFR of the open-raisers, rough estimation of the range
• Ratio VPIP/PFR of the callers, rough estimation of the range
• The fold-to-3-bet stat
• The 4-bet stat
• The 3-bet and fold-to-4-bet stats so you can make rough estimations about their further preflop aggression
• The squeeze stat

You should know how much the open raiser lives up to this description percentage wise in this position. Ideally, you shouldn't look at the entire PFR for this, rather the PFR range of individual positions.

It is very likely that a 19/16 UTG only open raises 5-6% of the time.

How often does Villain call these open raises? If he has a VPIP/PFR of 20/13 then certainly more often than with 12/10 or 22/19. Precise reads of which hands Villain calls would of course be most beneficial here. For fairly regular players, these are generally medium to small pocket pairs, or hands such as KQ/AJ, so hands which fold in a squeeze. Occasionally there are also attempts at traps with strong hands.

As you're 3-betting, this is one of the most important and easy to interpret stats. Values over 70% are nice. 

The question here is also: how often does your opponent fight back with a counter attack? If it's a lot higher than 15% of the time, you should think carefully.

Here it's important to gain a general impression of your opponent's preflop play. If they generally don't 3-bet very often and fold a lot of 4-bets, it's an indication that they're less interested in these kind of battles and so will leave you the pot regularly of their own free will, without any opposition.

This stat is only needed indirectly, however it shows how often your opponent goes for a squeeze themselves. If they do it comparatively regularly, i.e. the values is in the region of a normal 3-bet stat, then they're familiar with the weapon and now how to use a squeeze as a bluff.

If your opponent rarely squeezes and generally plays a straight forward game, don't give his range too much thought and simply give yourself a strong range (who hasn't been in live casinos and seen the opponent fold to every 3-bet and squeeze muttering "why does he always get aces?").

The position is also an advantage. It's always much better to carry out an action in position than out of position.

In the case of a squeeze this has two particular advantages: the probability that your opponent will call a squeeze out of position is even lower than that he allows himself to be tempted to call in position. This makes the fold equity higher.

If your opponent still finds a call, you should rather play a squeezed pot in position. Out of position you'll find you have difficult decisions to make more often postflop.

However, this doesn't mean that squeezes out of position aren't possible. You should just be aware of a few disadvantages.

Ideal Spots

After you've got an idea of what the perfect spot looks like, take another look at the example from above:

PartyPoker $100 NL Hold'em (6 handed)

Stacks & Stats
UTG ($100)
MP ($100)
CO ($100)
Hero ($100)
SB ($100)
BB ($100)

Preflop: Hero is BU with X , X
UTG raises to $4.00, 1 fold, CO calls $4.00, Hero squeezes?, ...

Four players are key here. UTG and CO are already in the hand, SB and BB could follow. So what would be the perfect spot?

UTG is more of a loose player who folds a lot to 3-bets (24/20, PFR from UTG: 14%, fold-to-3-bet 72%):

• You'll get really high fold equity against his range here.

CO is more of a tight player with no aggressive preflop image (15/10, hardly any 3-bets and 4-bets):

• His range here is mainly pocket pairs, AJ/KQ and now and then a suited connector. The player will rarely move or trap.

SB and BB are very aggressive players with high 3-bet/squeeze stats (28/24, 3-bet value: 12%, squeeze value: 11%) (obligatory for both).

If you find yourself in the following spot, it's practically an invitation to squeeze. The fold equity against the two players already in the pot is very high and you also have blinds sitting behind you. If you don't choose to go for a squeeze, one of these players usually will.

Of course, at the same time this reduces your chances to play in a multi-way pot with a good hand in position, as this option is now longer available due to a squeeze from one of the blinds.

Including the Hand

It's important now to think carefully about which hands you can use for a squeeze. That's why we'll be looking at that much more closely in another column. Nonetheless as a side note we should mention one of the biggest problems with NL Hold'em: you always need to consider all the factors.

Let's give Hero a hypothetical hand, say 5 5. What would be a good play here?

There's no correct answer to a question such as how you should play 55 as button after there has previously been a raise and a call.

The aim of every player should always be to make a decision that produces the highest possible EV. If you find yourself in the spot above and are holding 55, which play has the highest EV?

If the open raiser is very loose and rarely folds to a 3-bet, the caller is a tricky player who regularly calls an induced squeeze and the blinds behind you are incredibly passive and loose, you have very little fold equity in this case. However you have a chance to play a multi-way pot in position with a pocket pair against maybe 3 or 4 other players. A call is pretty much the only sensible solution in this case.

In the case of the players shown above, the possibility of even seeing the flop when you call is low, as there are squeeze-happy opponents sitting behind you. In addition, you can also count on very high fold equity and so directly bag the pot often enough. This means a squeeze is favourable here.

As you can see, the overall picture is important. From a strategic point of view, all information is worth its weight in gold:

• Preflop ranges
• Fold equity preflop against each individual opponent
• The possible implied odds of a call
• Potential squeeze threat from players sitting behind and the probability of a multi-way pot

LINKS
Related articles: Squeeze (1) - Thoughts on Squeezing Squeeze (3) - Squeeze Hands Squeeze (4) - Inducing a Squeeze Discussion forum: Discuss this article