Decisions Based on Attempts to steal
Decisions Based on Attempts to stealby Bobbs We sit in the blinds and a regular, with a well-known ATS value makes a raise from the cutoff or the button. Both players have a stack of roughly 11-18 BB. Because the ATS value is well known, we should use this information to find the move with the largest expected value against the stealraiser. Many players here will choose between either a 11-16 BB Push or a Fold. This will not be optimal in certain situations, since we have the stop-and-go move at our disposal. This is where we call the raise and then push given an appropriate flop, with the aim that this will creat more fold equity than a preflop shove. Example: The BU-Raiser has 55 and the flop is AJT. If we go all in now, we almost certainly force him to fold. By using a stop-and-go, we can sometimes get better hands than ours to fold the flop, but would have called a pre-flop shove. A stop-and-go is not always the best choice against certain stealranges. In order to determine when the move is applicable, we must analyse the opponents ATS value. I indicate the probability, for each ATS value, that the opponent holds an ace, king or a queen. Because most ATS values are in the range 20% - 45%, we shall look at the cases for ATS of 20, 25, 30 , 40 and 45. (These values come from the Sklansky-Chubukov-Rankings)
33+, A4o+, A2s+, KQo, KTs+ 33-AA = 12*6 Combinations TOTAL (Range) = 252 P(Villain | Ace) = [P(AA) + P(A4o+) + P(A2s+)]/Range P(Villain | King) = [P(KK) + P(AK) + P(KQo) + P(KTs+)]/Range P(Villain | Queen) = [P(QQ) + P(AQ) + P(KQ) ]/Range
22+, Ax, KTo+, K9s+,QTs+ 22-AA = 13*6 Combinations TOTAL (Range) = 330 P(Villain | Ace) = [P(AA) + P(Ax)]/Range P(Villain | King) = [P(KK) + P(AK) + P(KTo+) + P(K9s+)]/Range P(Villain | Queen) = [P(QQ) + P(AQ) + P(KQ) + P(QTs+)]/Range We note that villain holds an ace in most cases. Against an all-in reraise, there is almost no hand he can fold given the odds. But because we know his likely hand range, we can use this knowledge against him on the flop. Example: With A9+ Hero should just call. On the flop we then play as follows: Flop A: A T 5 Flop B: Q 9 4 A) Hero checks, Bu bets, Hero raises All-In B) Hero pushes All-In Using this variation of stop-and-go, we get the maximal value from our information abouts the opponents holdings. If an ace comes on the flop, we often have the best kicker. If no ace comes, the opponent will fold a lot of better hands. Since we play like this against a tight stealing range, this move is clearly superior to a push.
22+, Ax, K8o+, K4s+,QJ, Q9s+, JTs 22-AA = 13*6 Combinations TOTAL (Range) = 394 P(Villain | Ace) = [P(AA) + P(Ax)]/Range P(Villain | King) = [P(KK) + P(AK) + P(K8o+) + P(K4s+)]/Range P(Villain | Queen) = [P(QQ) + P(AQ) + P(KQ) + P(QJo) + P(Q9s+))]/Range
22+, Ax, K3o+, K2s+,Q9o+, Q5s+, JTs 22-AA = 13*6 Combinations TOTAL (Range) = 502 P(Villain | Ace) = [P(AA) + P(Ax)]/Range P(Villain | King) = [P(KK) + P(AK) + P(K3o+) + P(K2s+)]/Range P(Villain | Queen) = [P(QQ) + P(AQ) + P(KQ) + P(Q9o+) + P(Q5s+))]/Range
22+, Ax, Kx+,Q7o, Q2s+, J9o+, J7s+, T8s+ 22-AA = 13*6 Combinations TOTAL (Range) = 594 P(Villain | Ace) = [P(AA) + P(Ax)]/Range P(Villain | King) = [P(KK) + P(AK) + P(Kx+)]/Range P(Villain | Queen) = [P(QQ) + P(AQ) + P(KQ) + P(Q7o+) + P(Q2s+))]/Range We see that the probability that our opponent holds an ace decreases if they have a large ATS value. Therefore we cannot easily decide on the flop if they have hit and will not get paid by smaller aces. Therefore it is better to push pre-flop because our opponent will likely fold. Remarks: Many opponents would rather raise suited connectors than K2. Though this changes the probability that villain holds an ace, there are very few opponents who would call an all-in with 54s. We can use the same techniques for playing a tight stealraiser with ATS between 20 and 25 against a loose raiser who raises from MP 20%-25% of the time. ConclusionThrough the use of PT&PA we receive very useful information about our opponent in different situations which enable us to find good spots to steal some chips. |
