Decisions Based on Attempts to steal

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Decisions Based on Attempts to steal

by Bobbs

We sit in the blinds and a regular, with a well-known ATS value makes a
raise from the cutoff or the button. Both players have a stack of
roughly 11-18 BB.

Because the ATS value is well
known, we should use this information to find the move with the largest
expected value against the stealraiser. Many players here will choose
between either a 11-16 BB Push or a Fold.

This will not be optimal in certain
situations, since we have the stop-and-go move at our disposal. This is
where we call the raise and then push given an appropriate flop, with
the aim that this will creat more fold equity than a preflop shove.

Example: The BU-Raiser has 55 and
the flop is AJT. If we go all in now, we almost certainly force him to
fold. By using a stop-and-go, we can sometimes get better hands than
ours to fold the flop, but would have called a pre-flop shove.

A stop-and-go is not always the
best choice against certain stealranges. In order to determine when the
move is applicable, we must analyse the opponents ATS value.

I indicate the probability, for
each ATS value, that the opponent holds an ace, king or a queen.
Because most ATS values are in the range 20% - 45%, we shall look at
the cases for ATS of 20, 25, 30 , 40 and 45. (These values come from
the Sklansky-Chubukov-Rankings)

33+, A4o+, A2s+, KQo, KTs+

33-AA = 12*6 Combinations
A4o+ = 10*12 Combinations
A2s+ = 12*4 Combinations
KQo = 12 Combinations
KTs+ = 3*4 Combinations

TOTAL (Range) = 252

P(Villain | Ace) = [P(AA) + P(A4o+) + P(A2s+)]/Range
P(Villain | Ace) = [6 + 120 + 48]/252

P(Villain | Ace) = 0.69 = 69%

P(Villain | King) = [P(KK) + P(AK) + P(KQo) + P(KTs+)]/Range
P(Villain | King) = [6 + 16 + 12 + 12]/252
P(Villain | King) = 0.182 = 18.2%

P(Villain | Queen) = [P(QQ) + P(AQ) + P(KQ) ]/Range
P(Villain | Queen) = [6 + 16 + 16]/252
P(Villain | Queen) = 0.15 = 15%

22+, Ax, KTo+, K9s+,QTs+

22-AA = 13*6 Combinations
Ax = 12*16 Combinations
KTo+ = 3*12 Combinations
K9s+ = 4*4 Combinations
QTs = 2*4 Combinations

TOTAL (Range) = 330

P(Villain | Ace) = [P(AA) + P(Ax)]/Range
P(Villain | Ace) = [6 + 192]/330
P(Villain | Ace) = 198/330

P(Villain | Ace) = 0.6 = 60%

P(Villain | King) = [P(KK) + P(AK) + P(KTo+) + P(K9s+)]/Range
P(Villain | King) = [6 + 16 + 36 + 16]/330
P(Villain | King) = 0.224 = 22.4%

P(Villain | Queen) = [P(QQ) + P(AQ) + P(KQ) + P(QTs+)]/Range
P(Villain | Queen) = [6 + 16 + 16 + 8]/330
P(Villain | Queen) = 0.14 = 14%

We note that villain holds an ace in most cases. Against an all-in
reraise, there is almost no hand he can fold given the odds. But
because we know his likely hand range, we can use this knowledge
against him on the flop.

Example:
BU raises 3BB (12 BB)
SB folds
Hero in BB with A9o(11 BB)

With A9+ Hero should just call. On the flop we then play as follows:

Flop A: A T 5

Flop B: Q 9 4

A) Hero checks, Bu bets, Hero raises All-In
Here we play check/raise All-In. Villain holds an ace with a worse kicker in most cases and we cannot fold.

B) Hero pushes All-In
It is rare that either of us hit this hit this type of flop, but many
hands to which we are behind, for instance, 22 or 55, will likely fold
to a push.

Using this variation of stop-and-go, we get the maximal value from our
information abouts the opponents holdings. If an ace comes on the flop,
we often have the best kicker. If no ace comes, the opponent will fold
a lot of better hands.

Since we play like this against a tight stealing range, this move is clearly superior to a push.

22+, Ax, K8o+, K4s+,QJ, Q9s+, JTs

22-AA = 13*6 Combinations
Ax = 12*16 Combinations
K8o+ = 5*12 Combinations
K4s+ = 9*4 Combinations
QJo = 12 Combinations
Q9s+ = 3*4 Combinations
JTs = 4 Combinations

TOTAL (Range) = 394

P(Villain | Ace) = [P(AA) + P(Ax)]/Range
P(Villain | Ace) = [6 + 192]/394
P(Villain | Ace) = 198/394

P(Villain | Ace) = 0.503 = 50,03%

P(Villain | King) = [P(KK) + P(AK) + P(K8o+) + P(K4s+)]/Range
P(Villain | King) = [6 + 16 + 60 + 36]/394
P(Villain | King) = 0.299 = 29.94%

P(Villain | Queen) = [P(QQ) + P(AQ) + P(KQ) + P(QJo) + P(Q9s+))]/Range
P(Villain | Queen) = [6 + 16 + 16 + 12 + 12]/394
P(Villain | Queen) = 0.157 = 15.7%

22+, Ax, K3o+, K2s+,Q9o+, Q5s+, JTs

22-AA = 13*6 Combinations
Ax, 12*16 Combinations
K3o+, 10*12 Combinations
K2s+, 11*4 Combinations
Q9o+, 3*12 Combinations
Q5s+, 7*4 Combinations
JTs = 4 Combinations

TOTAL (Range) = 502

P(Villain | Ace) = [P(AA) + P(Ax)]/Range
P(Villain | Ace) = 198/502

P(Villain | Ace) = 0.394 = 39.4%

P(Villain | King) = [P(KK) + P(AK) + P(K3o+) + P(K2s+)]/Range
P(Villain | King) = [6 + 16 + 120 + 44]/502
P(Villain | King) = 0.371 = 37.1%

P(Villain | Queen) = [P(QQ) + P(AQ) + P(KQ) + P(Q9o+) + P(Q5s+))]/Range
P(Villain | Queen) = [6 + 16 + 16 + 32 + 28]/502
P(Villain | Queen) = 0.195 = 19.5%

22+, Ax, Kx+,Q7o, Q2s+, J9o+, J7s+, T8s+

22-AA = 13*6 Combinations
Ax, 12*16 Combinations
Kx, 11*16 Combinations
Q7o+, 5*12 Combinations
Q2s+, 10*4 Combinations
J9o+, 12*2 Combinations
J7s+, 4*4 Combinations
T8s+, 2*4 Combinations

TOTAL (Range) = 594

P(Villain | Ace) = [P(AA) + P(Ax)]/Range
P(Villain | Ace) = [6 + 192]/498
P(Villain | Ace) = 198/594

P(Villain | Ace) = 0.33 = 33.3%

P(Villain | King) = [P(KK) + P(AK) + P(Kx+)]/Range
P(Villain | King) = [6 + 16 + 176]/594
P(Villain | King) = 0.493 = 49.3%

P(Villain | Queen) = [P(QQ) + P(AQ) + P(KQ) + P(Q7o+) + P(Q2s+))]/Range
P(Villain | Queen) = [6 + 16 + 16 + 60 + 40]/594

P(Villain | Queen) = 0.232 = 23.2%

We see that the probability that our opponent holds an ace decreases if
they have a large ATS value. Therefore we cannot easily decide on the
flop if they have hit and will not get paid by smaller aces. Therefore
it is better to push pre-flop because our opponent will likely fold.

Remarks: Many
opponents would rather raise suited connectors than K2. Though this
changes the probability that villain holds an ace, there are very few
opponents who would call an all-in with 54s.

We can use
the same techniques for playing a tight stealraiser with ATS between 20
and 25 against a loose raiser who raises from MP 20%-25% of the time.

Conclusion

Through
the use of PT&PA we receive very useful information about our
opponent in different situations which enable us to find good spots to
steal some chips.