Floats (4) - Failed Floats
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Floats (4) - Failed Floats
by MiiWiin
We're entering the home stretch with floats now. You've seen why floating is necessary at all, which opponents it's profitable to use against and in which exception spots you should employ this move, or rather leave it.
Today we're going to look at what happens if your float has been unsuccessful. As a float is mostly used on the turn, the hand isn't over if it is opposed. This is because you either have to make another decision on the turn, or wait until the river to take action.
What could happen?
The game doesn't always go as you imagine. You can plan the most brilliant float, but then Villain throws a spanner in the works. So, what are the most common causes of a failed float?
- The opponent 2nd barrels
- The opponent check/calls on the turn
- The opponent check/raises on the turn
All three actions mean your plan will fail. In the first case, you can't even attempt a float, in the second and third your opponent counters your float.
Now the question is how you deal with these situations as the hands continue.
PartyPoker $25 NL Hold'em (6-handed)
Stacks & Stats
MP ($25)
CO ($25)
UTG ($25) (21 / 15 / 4.2 / 1.5 / 68 / 42 / 45 / 3)
(VPIP / PFR / Flop-AF / Turn-AF / Cbet Flop / Cbet Turn / Fold-to-Turnbet / checkraise Turn)
BB ($25)
SB ($25)
Hero ($25)
Preflop: Hero is BU with X , X
UTG raises $1.00, 2 folds, Hero calls $1.00, 2 folds
Flop: ($2.35) 4
, 3
, Q (2 players)
UTG bets $1.50, Hero calls $1.50
Turn: ($5.35) A (2 players)
UTG bets $3.50, Hero...
This is the most common spot. You called on the flop, whether with a draw or air, either to float or with a made hand (which wouldn't be of interest to us here).
You know that your opponent bets a lot on the flop, but holds back on the turn. You now need to ask yourself the following questions:
- Is the turn card so scary that even this Villain needs to bluff?
- What's in your hand? Do you have any outs?
- Does a bluff raise make sense?
- Can your opponent check/fold on the river?
As you don't have a made hand, these spots can be divided into two scenarios. You're either holding nothing or a draw.
Even if you think your opponent knows how valuable this scare card is and uses it to bluff regularly, in most cases, you should still fold if you have air. You thought the float itself was profitable, but the plan failed.
It's possible you could sell your opponent a set with a raise, but this assumption isn't really strong enough.
A raise would commit you with a draw. That's why with a card like 8, 7 you have three options:
- Fold, because you haven't given yourself enough implieds.
- Call, because you think you have implied odds and you want to keep the option open to float on the river.
- Raise, because you see Villain bet/fold a lot on the turn.
There's not a lot between the three options. You could fold, but you've got nine outs and can certainly give yourself implied odds. A link needs to be made with the opponent analysis:
If you don't give yourself any implied odds, then your opponent will check/fold most rivers. In this case you can float him there without a problem.
So the call is an attractive option. Of course, the implied odds will be really small, but you can still bet on the river and win the pot unimproved.
Option number three is the raise. However, you should be aware that your opponent regularly aims for the line bet/fold turn. If your opponent pushes over your raise you have to call the all-in. However, your main aim isn't to go all-in on the turn, rather to play an overall +EV game with the fold and rest equity you generate.
So, without fold equity, a raise wouldn't make any sense.
Generally speaking:
If your planned float fails, then you should continue to play/bluff very few hands with no outs if he fires a 2nd barrel. It doesn't make much sense here to call again in the hope of improving your hand and bluffing big on the river.
However, if you have good (clean) outs up your sleeve then this move could make a lot of sense. If you think your opponent folds a lot on the turn, then play raise/broke. But if you give Villain a lot of credit and the odds are unfavourable, you could also fold a draw on the turn.
PartyPoker $25 NL Hold'em (6-handed)
Stacks & Stats
MP ($25)
CO ($25)
UTG ($25) (22 / 18 / 3.8 / 2.8 / 64 / 45 / 42 / 6)
(VPIP / PFR / Flop-AF / Turn-AF / Cbet Flop / Cbet Turn / Fold-to-Turnbet / checkraise Turn)
BB ($25)
SB ($25)
Hero ($25)
Preflop: Hero is BU with X , X
UTG raises $1.00, 2 folds, Hero calls $1.00, 2 folds
Flop: ($2.35) 6
, 7, J (2 players)
UTG bets $1.50, Hero calls $1.50
Turn: ($5.35) A (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $3.50, UTG calls $3.50
River: ($12.35) X (2 players)
...
Even if your opponent check/calls your plan to directly take the pot has failed.
However, this example demonstrates the advantages of a float:
- You still see the river.
- You're back in position on the river.
- You could hit your draw and extract value.
- You have the initiative and can bluff again.
- You can take the free showdown with fairly respectable made hand.
Ultimately, you force your opponent to play the last two streets out of position and without the initiative. There aren't many hands that your opponent can easily check/call twice on the turn and the river.
So, the failed float isn't necessarily a disaster. The following three examples show how the game can still have a profitable outcome:
PartyPoker $25 NL Hold'em (6-handed)
Stacks & Stats
MP ($25)
CO ($25)
UTG ($25) (22 / 18 / 3.8 / 2.8 / 64 / 45 / 42 / 6)
(VPIP / PFR / Flop-AF / Turn-AF / Cbet Flop / Cbet Turn / Fold-to-Turnbet / checkraise Turn)
BB ($25)
SB ($25)
Hero ($25)
Preflop: Hero is BU with 8 , 9
UTG raises $1.00, 2 folds, Hero calls $1.00, 2 folds
Flop: ($2.35) 6, 7, J (2 players)
UTG bets $1.50, Hero calls $1.50
Turn: ($5.35) A (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $3.50, UTG calls $3.50
River: ($12.35) 5 (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero value bets
PartyPoker $25 NL Hold'em (6-handed)
Stacks & Stats
MP ($25)
CO ($25)
UTG ($25) (22 / 18 / 3.8 / 2.8 / 64 / 45 / 42 / 6)
(VPIP / PFR / Flop-AF / Turn-AF / Cbet Flop / Cbet Turn / Fold-to-Turnbet / checkraise Turn)
BB ($25)
SB ($25)
Hero ($25)
Preflop: Hero is BU with 8 , 9
UTG raises $1.00, 2 folds, Hero calls $1.00, 2 folds
Flop: ($2.35) 6, 7, J (2 players)
UTG bets $1.50, Hero calls $1.50
Turn: ($5.35) A (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $3.50, UTG calls $3.50
River: ($12.35) K (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bluff bets
PartyPoker $25 NL Hold'em (6-handed)
Stacks & Stats
MP ($25)
CO ($25)
UTG ($25) (22 / 18 / 3.8 / 2.8 / 64 / 45 / 42 / 6)
(VPIP / PFR / Flop-AF / Turn-AF / Cbet Flop / Cbet Turn / Fold-to-Turnbet / checkraise Turn)
BB ($25)
SB ($25)
Hero ($25)
Preflop: Hero is BU with 8 , 9
UTG raises $1.00, 2 folds, Hero calls $1.00, 2 folds
Flop: ($2.25) 6, 7, J (2 players)
UTG bets $1.50, Hero calls $1.50
Turn: ($5.35) A (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $3.50, UTG calls $3.50
River: ($12.35) 9 (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero has options...
- Option 1: bluff bet against Ax, KK-, Jx
- Option 2: check behind against busted draws, as the 3rd pair could be good
As you can see, even after a failed float there are still lots of options on the river. Nonetheless, it's really important here to think about whether bluff bets still make sense or if you wouldn't be better off taking the free showdown.
You can't stick to any mantras for these floats. There are lots of players who have lapsed into certain modes:
- 'If I float on the turn, I'll bluff any river.'
- 'If my float fails, I'll give up immediately.'
This is no good. As you can see from the three examples, there are still lots of options on the river which should be considered separately. However, you should assess these options before you decide whether you want to float on the turn.
25 NL Hold'em (6-handed)
Stacks & Stats
MP ($25)
CO ($25)
UTG ($25) (19 / 14 / 2.9 / 1.9 / 60 / 35 / 50 / 4)
(VPIP / PFR / Flop-AF / Turn-AF / Cbet Flop / Cbet Turn / Fold-to-Turnbet / checkraise Turn)
BB ($25)
SB ($25)
Hero ($25)
Preflop: Hero is BU with X , X
UTG raises $1.00, 2 folds, Hero calls $1.00, 2 folds
Flop: ($2.35) 6, 7, K (2 players)
UTG bets $1.50, Hero calls $1.50
Turn: ($5.35) A (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $3.50, UTG raises to $9.50, Hero...
Finally the simplest of all cases. After your opponent check/raises you only have three options, all of which depend directly on the hand:
- If you don't have anything, fold. A push creates almost no fold equity.
- If you have a draw then you can consider a call, depending on the strength of the draw, the bet or raise size, as well as the possible remaining stack sizes.
- If you have a really strong draw which you can profitably bet/call on the turn, then go for it (although this can never happen with the bet sizes in the example above).
First and foremost, this play should prove that a check/raise on your part is a good weapon against floats. Because, as you can see, it's really difficult to make a good decision here.
The pure floats have to give up, you can hardly play on profitably with 4 5. If you balance your floats here by betting Ax (as a thin value bet), then you're fighting a lost cause.
A check/raise on the turn looks incredibly strong and it usually is. However, this offers a clear opportunity for you to take up lighter check/raises on the turn in your play against floats.
Summary
In the final part of this series you've seen that even in an unsuccessful float attempt there are still possibilities to win the hand.
In many cases however, there's no obligation to do this. There's nothing to stop you from continuing to play the hand when your opponent suddenly starts playing aggressively. It's important to understand that you don't have to win every hand. When you want to integrate increased bluffs or floats in your game, you need to recognise when you can't achieve any more fold equity.
If you try to forcibly win the pot, with senseless pushes on the turn after your opponent's check/raises, or with bluff calls on the turn including a planned river push, then your nice move, intended to balance the often positive expected value as well as your value plays, will seriously backfire.
