Bet sizes - how much do you bet?
Introduction
In this article
- Why the bet size matters
- Value vs. fold equity
In the article about betting types, you learned in which situations you bet and why. However, the size of these bets and their options have been left out so far. In this article, we will now look at some standard bet sizes and you will learn why the bet size is so crucial.
How important is the bet size?
The bet size is important for several reasons and it can vary, depending on what you want to achieve. You already know the most important criteria of the different betting types and there is a similar basic idea for betting sizes:
You want to take money from your opponent in cases where you assume that you have the strongest hand. Ideally, you will succeed in animating a very passive player to call down and can put him all-in on the river. This means you can win a player's entire stack, even if he only calls down instead of raising. In order to avoid placing a huge overbet on the river, you have to choose adequate bet sizes on the previous streets.
If you think your opponent is sitting on a draw, you give him bad odds through the size of your bet so he potentially makes a mistake by calling. As we mentioned in the definition of the protection bet, the purpose of the protection is not only to protect against draws, but also to get the maximum of value by making big and thoughtful bets. For instance, you won't get any more value out of a draw on the river if it didn't hit.
A third option is the bluff bet. In this case, you can't get any value from weaker hands (or very rarely), as it relies entirely on fold equity. Of course, the bet size plays a crucial role: if the bet is huge, it has to work very often. On the other hand, if your bet is too small, it might not generate enough fold equity.
How much should you bet?
In theory, you're free to move your whole stack in at any time in No-limit Hold'em. You can go all-in pre-flop, on the flop or at any other given opportunity. The question is, though: what do you want to achieve?
The three initial points are very important:
- Do you want to maximize your profit?
- Are you protecting your hand?
- Do you bluff because you want your opponent to give up?
Take a look at some possible bet sizes:
A push or shove means that you push your complete stack into the middle of the table in a single action. Theoretically, this can happen in first position if you are first to act and go all-in. But would that make sense? Remember the three basic thoughts behind your betting here: you will rarely get value from weaker hands (it doesn't really matter what you're pushing with). A decent pre-flop raise would already guarantee the necessary protection. On the other hand, you have enormous fold equity as you also drive away weaker hands that would possibly pay you off.
A term that is often used is the potsize bet: it should be part of the standard repertoire of every poker player, as its size is very easy to figure out with a minimum of practice.
A potsize bet is equal to three times the opponent's bet plus the current pot size:
For example, if the pot is $10 and villain bets another $10 on the flop, the potsize bet, or the potsize raise in this case, is calculated like this: $10*3 + $10 = $40.
Why does this matter so much? Well, it comes in very handy when we need protection. For instance, you know that an OESD (8 outs) or a flushdraw (9 outs) improves one out of 5 times on the turn, and even one out of 3 times up to the river. This means it is extremely important what odds you give to your opponent with your bet.
When you do a potsize raise, the odds he gets are always 2:1. If he calls that bet, he makes a mathematical mistake (not taking into consideration implied odds).
Let's take another look at our example:
Due to your $40 raise, the opponent has to pay $30 to see the turn. His possible return on value is the current pot of $10 plus his own bet of $10, plus your raise of $40, adding up to $60. The ratio of $60 / $30 gives him odds of 2:1.
The size of a 2/3 potsize bet should now also be clear to you. But when do you opt for this bet size?
As you know, you always have to look at multiple factors to make a bet. The potsize bet offers maximal protection against a draw, but what happens if your opponent doesn't have a draw? The higher you bet, the more you protect, but the less value you get from weaker hands.
The 2/3 potsize bet basically offers odds of 2.5 to 1.
Example: the pot is $9 on the flop and you bet $6 (2/3 of the pot). Your opponent has to call $6 to win a total of $15, so the ratio of $15 / $6 gives him odds of 2.5 to 1. Even though these odds still aren't too good, he could be animated to call once more with a weaker hand.
One important area to apply the 2/3 potsize bets are continuation bets; usually, you want to achieve several goals with a continuation bet, covering all three of the before mentioned areas (value, protection, bluff).
For instance, if you play heads-up and find yourself on the flop as pre-flop aggressor, protection might not be unimportant, for example, if you hit top pair and you could see your opponent with a draw. But it's just as probable that he will call with a worse hand or that he even folds a stronger hand than yours (i.e. if you hit absolutely nothing).
If your continuation bet in heads-up was potsize every time, you would need to be successful 50% of the time; you bet $10 to win $10 on the flop. But if you only bet 2/3 potsize, you only need to be successful 40% of the times.
| IMPORTANT | |
| The bigger your bet, the more often your opponent has to fold. | |
On the other hand, you also need a certain amount of fold equity: if you were to bet $1 into the $10 pot, it would indeed only have to work one out of ten times. Unfortunately, the opponent will hardly ever fold and could even be animated to bluff. Your continuation bet thus needs a good balance between fold equity and an upper limit so it doesn't have to be successful too often.
Considering these two conditions, experience shows the 2/3 potsize bet to be a good reference value.
Of course, if you keep this principle in mind, smaller bets can also be promising: if you think a ½ potsize bet generates the necessary fold equity, it's possible to use it. In that case, you will need to be able to assess your opponent better, though. The smaller your bet, the less fold equity you achieve and the less value you get from weaker hands. At the same time, protection decreases as a ½ potsize bet gives your opponent odds of 3:1.
An overbet designates a bet that's bigger than the actual pot. As we saw earlier, this generates higher fold equity, while losing value at the same time by pushing worse hands out. For protection, an overbet would be ideal, but since a potsize bet already offers maximum protection, you should generally refrain from overbets.
What about deception?
In short, deception means that you don't want to be readable - that's one of the big advantages to using standard-sized bets. If you always make a 2/3 potsize continuation bet, your opponents will have a hard time knowing whether you're bluffing unimproved and solely relying on your fold equity or whether you're protecting or betting for value. As long as you're not readable, you force your opponent to make mistakes and so you win money in the long run.
A very suspicious variation of the betting sizes would be if your bluff continuation bet is always ½ potsize, while you bet 2/3 potsize with a monster and potsize with hands that need protection. Opponents that think about it will notice this and, at some point, they will know exactly what your bet sizes mean.
Possible bet sizes on the various streets
For pre-flop play, you have your standard raises. Your first-in raise of 4 BB is sufficient: in case there are already limpers in the pot, you increase this bet size by one BB per limper.
If there was already a raise in front of you, you should raise to at least three times that raise. If there were additional limpers, you can add these, too. It's also a good idea to raise an additional BB when you're out of position (SB, BB).
The value and protection aspect already come into effect here: you want to get money into the pot with the presumably stronger hand and to not let speculative hands draw cheaply to suck out on you post-flop.
On the flop, you often have the initiative and can thus place a continuation bet. As we mentioned before, a bet size of 2/3 is suitable if you're heads-up.
If you're up against several opponents and the board is draw heavy, you could bet more and go up to the maximum of a potsize bet. Protection becomes increasingly important with these factors.
In some situations you don't have the initiative, of course, and have to raise your opponent's continuation bet. Again, a value of 2/3 potsize is recommended as standard, while a potsize raise is also possible. Everyone has to decide on his own how to balance protection and fold equity. Also, observing the board and the opponent is crucial here.
If you are left with just one opponent in heads-up, you can opt for a 2/3 potsize bet here, or even keep it smaller in certain situations; there is only a single card left, making the odds of potential draws a lot worse than on the flop. You therefore don't have to forcibly bet potsize - you can give weaker hands a chance to pay you off, too.
Another very important factor concerns the remaining stack sizes; you need to be aware of your planned course of action, about how to react to opposing action and how your opponent could react to your bet. You can either bet/fold or bet/call on the turn (if you want to bet at all; of course it's also possible to give the hand up with a check/fold). If you think a very passive player only raises with very strong hands, you could tend to make your bets a little smaller.
On the other hand, if you play against a very weak opponent that calls too much anyway and will pay you off with a lot of weaker hands, you can make bigger bets in order to be able to go all-in on the river. The possible course of action of the following streets and the behavioural patterns of your opponent should thus always be present in the back of your mind and should be taken into consideration.
The river is a special case, because protection becomes obsolete. Your hands are made and you either are ahead or not. There are no more additional cards that can change this. Therefore, a bet on the river can only have one of two motivations:
- You bet to get value from weaker hands.
- You bet to make stronger hands fold (bluff).
Depending on the opponent, you can vary more here: if you think the opponent would call another half potsize bet with a worse hand, but fold to a bigger bet, you should only bet that much. However, if you're convinced he would even call a push/shove (for instance if you completed a draw he doesn't put you on) with a worse hand, you can exploit this, too. Either you get the money now or not at all; there is no other chance to move it in.
The block bet we mentioned in the first article is also of importance here, as you can try to bet small and fold to a raise. In this case, you rather bet for information or a cheap showdown than for value or as a bluff.
If you hold a very strong hand on the river and have position on your opponent who bets, you should raise to extract value. Again, you have to ask yourself how much more the opponent is willing to call. Sometimes, small raises come in handy here, to get some more value from dominated hands, but you shouldn't raise too small as your aim is to win money and a bluff won't call a raise anyway, no matter how small it is.
Summary
In general, it's important to know what you're betting for and what you want to achieve when deciding about bet sizes. The ratio between value and fold equity should be in a healthy balance.
This is important because you won't just be betting with strong made hands, but also with weaker hands to try and get better hands to fold. To avoid becoming readable, you should play these two in the same fashion as much as possible.
An important factor here is the continuous observation of your opponents, so you can estimate why you should bet and with which hands your opponents could call, respectively with which better hands they could fold.
| LINKS | |
