Updated on 12 Mar 26 by
Michael Haufschild
Poker Expert
Strategy : No Limit

Floating

Introduction

Floating is a course of play whereby, in a raised pot, one calls the continuation bet of the pre-flop raiser, with the intention of taking the pot away from them on the turn with a bluff. The move can take place both in and out of position, but it is substantially easier to pull off in position. This article discusses the mathematical background behind the move and highlights situations in which it may be used.

The expected value of the float in position

Float Equity without a draw

Example:
NL $2/$4

Stacks:
MP ($460)
Hero ($395)

Preflop: Hero is BU with 7 , 8
1 fold, MP raises to $12, Co calls $12, Hero calls $12, 2 fold.

Flop: ($42) 2, 6, K (3 players)
MP bets $32, CO folds, Hero calls $32.

Turn: ($106) J (2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets $70, ...

We call the raise with position on the pre-flop aggressor. This results in a continuation bet on the flop. At this moment in time, we cannot say whether or not this means anything. The purpose of our flop-call here is to steal the pot from our opponent if he shows weakness on the turn. In order to compute the expectancy value, we proceed on the following assumptions:

  • Against a further bet on the turn, we will fold.
  • If our opponent plays check/call on the turn, we will then give up on the river.
  • Against a check/raise on the turn, we will likewise give up the hand.
  • We will not make a hand on the turn with which it is worth continuing to play.

EV = P(Turncheck) * {P(Fold) * [Pot(Turn) - Call(Flop)] - [1 - P(Fold)] * [Bet(Turn) + Call(Flop)]} - [1 - P(Turncheck)] * Call(Flop)

In this equation we have two unknown quantities. First, the probability that our opponent will check on the turn, and also the probability he will give up the hand to a raise. The following diagram shows the equity against the probability of folding at the turn for different probabilities that our opponent will check the turn.

Float Equity with a draw

Often we are in the situation where we have a gutshot straight draw, or similar weak draw. The assumptions are the same as above, except that we may, in addition, make a strong hand on the turn.

Example:
NL $2/$4

Stacks:
MP ($460)
Hero ($395)

Preflop: Hero is BU with 7 , 8
1 fold, MP raises to $12, Co calls $12, Hero calls $12, 2 fold.

Flop: ($42) 4, 6, K (3 players)
MP bets $32, CO folds, Hero calls $32.

a) Turn: ($106) J (2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets $70, ...

b) Turn: ($106) 5 (2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets $70, ...

Here we calculate the expected value:

EV = [1 - P(Draw arrives)] * {P(Turncheck) * {P(Fold) * [Pot(Turn) - Call(Flop)] - [1 - P(Fold)] * [Bet(Turn) + Call(Flop)]}- [1 - P(Turncheck)] * Call(Flop)} + P(Draw arrives) * {P(Turncheck) * {P(Fold) * [Pot(Turn) - Call(Flop)] +[1 - P(Fold)] * [Pot(Turn) + Pot(Turn) * Implied Factor * 2/3 - Call(Flop)}+ [1 - P(Turncheck)] * [Pot(Turn) - Call(Flop) + Implied Factor * Pot(Turn)}

The implied factor determines how much value we can still get from our opponent, on average (in units of the pot at the turn). With a turn check, I multiplied the implied factor by 2/3, since we are unlikely to see a direct bet from our opponent and must therefore work assuming lower profits.

The following diagram expresses our equity versus the probability of a fold from our opponent for different probabilities of a check on the turn from our opponent. We have a gutshot straight draw in the example, which completes with probability of 8.5% on the turn. The implied factor is set at 1.5.

Comparison: Floating without a draw, Floating with draw

We see from this analysis that floating with a small draw such as a gutshot straight draw clearly pushes our equity upwards.

Example:
P(Turncheck) = 60%
P(Fold) = 60%

Total probability that villain folds: 36% (0.6 * 0.6).

EV without Draw: -10.64
EV with Draw: +4.12

In these examples the implied factor was set to 1.5, however, realistically this is quite a low value.

The expected value of floating out of position

This situation ought to arise quite rarely, since good players will mainly want to avoid playing out of position against one pre-flop raiser.

Float Equity without a draw

Example:
NL $2/$4

Stacks:
Hero ($460)
Button ($395)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 7 , 8
1 fold, MP raises to $12, 3 fold, Hero calls $8.

Flop: ($26) 2, 6, K (3 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $20, Hero calls $20.

Turn: ($66) J (2 players)
Hero bets $47, MP ...

We call with 78s in the BB after a single pre-flop raiser. On the flop, we play check/call, with the intention of bringing down the pot on the turn.

We make the following assumptions:

  • Should our opponent call or raise our turn bet, we are beat.
  • We cannot make a hand on the turn with which it will be worthwhile to continue playing.

The expected value is calculated as follows:

EV = P(Fold) * [Pot(Turn) - Call(Flop)] - [1 - P(Fold)] * [Call(Flop) + Bet(Turn)].
The following diagram shows our equity versus the probability that villain will fold the hand:

The equity calculation is much simpler in the case where we are out of position, since we no longer need the unknown variable representing the probability that our opponent checks the turn. We can see in this example that the float is worth it once we have a fold equity of 60% or better.

Float Equity with draws

Now we analyse the situation in which we have a draw.

Example:
NL $2/$4

Stacks:
Hero ($460)
Button ($395)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 7 , 8
1 fold, MP raises to $12, 3 fold, Hero calls $8.

Flop: ($26) 4, 6, K (3 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $20, Hero calls $20.

a) Turn: ($66) J (2 players)
Hero bets $47, MP ...

b) Turn: ($66) 5 (2 players)
Hero bets $47, MP ...

Calculating the EV:

EV = [1 - P(Draw arrives)] * {P(Fold) * [Pot(Turn) - Call(Flop)] - [1 - P(Fold)] * [Call(Flop) + Bet(Turn)]} + P(Draw arrives) * {P(Fold) * [Pot(Turn) - Call(Flop)] + [1-P(Fold)] * [Call(Flop) + Implied Factor * Pot(Turn)]}

The diagram shows our equity measured against the probability our opponent folds. Once more, we have a gutshot straight draw and the implied factor is set to 1.5.

Comparison: Floating without a draw, Floating with a draw

Once more, we see that our equity greatly improves with the presence of a draw. With just 4 outs, we need to have 10% less fold equity than without a draw in order to make the play profitable.

Comparison: Floating "In Position" and Floating "Out of Position"

In position, it is substantially easier and more effective to float. Villain must react first and we can wait to see what he does. This brings some advantages in itself:

  • We usually have a higher fold equity. If we are OOP on the turn and donk directly into villain, we still have no idea about his hand strength. If we see villain check the turn to us, however, this mostly indicates he has a weak or medium strength hand.
  • If we hit our draw in position, we can extract more value from villain, so our implied odds rise.
  • We have the option of taking a free card in position if we hit a moderate hand (with showdown value) or a strong draw.

Estimating the probability that villain gives up the hand on the turn

The probability that villain folds the turn depends on many factors. In the following, we'll deal more precisely with this. You should naturally take into consideration the following things when the flop comes.

Type of opponent

There are two important characteristics to take into consideration. The first is the aggressiveness of the opponent. The more aggressive the opponent, the more continuation bets he makes. The more continuation bets he makes, the more likely he is to have a weak holding on the turn and we can take down the pot. On the other hand, an aggressive opponent will sometimes fire a second barrel bluff on the turn, making a float impossible.

Further we must know how often our opponent goes to the showdown. The more often this is, the less fold equity we have, hence it makes no sense to float a calling station.

Pokertracker stats

Concerning aggression, pokertracker gives different aggression values, with average aggression supplying a general estimate postflop. The two values representing continuation bet plays on the flop and the turn are particularly important, but are only meaningful with a large sample size. Went to showdown is of course relevant. Of special importance to our situation, is the value for folding to a turn bet. With these values (and a large sample size) we can measure quite precisely how often, on average, villain will fold.

Board

Drawheavy: The more draws which are possible, the more likely our opponent has a draw that will be difficult to get him off of. It is also more likely that our opponent will put us on a draw and hence be more reluctant to fold. Naturally, the more probable that our opponent has a made hand, the less likely that he'll fold.

Image

All these considerations depend strongly on our own image. What does the opponent think of us? If we have been known to float on boards which he might have seldom hit, he is more likely to fire a second barrel or check/raise the turn.

Change of EV with variations of the betsize

It makes a lot of difference whether our opponent bets 1/2 pot or 3/4 pot on the flop. First we show two hands. In both examples hero will bet 2/3 potsize on the turn if it is checked to him. All other parameters stay the same (same fold equity on the turn etc).

Case a)

Stacks:
MP ($460)
Hero ($395)

Preflop: Hero is BU with 7 , 8
1 fold, MP raises to $12, Co calls $12, Hero calls $12, 2 fold.

Flop: ($42) 2, 6, K (3 players)
MP bets $21, CO folds, Hero calls $21.

Turn: ($84) J (2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets $56, ...

EV (without Draw): -4.2
EV (with Draw): 7.51 (if, for example, there was a "4" instead of a "2")

Case b)

Stacks:
MP ($460)
Hero ($395)

Preflop: Hero ist BU with 7 , 8
1 fold, MP raises to $12, Co calls $12, Hero calls $12, 2 fold.

Flop: ($42) 2, 6, K (3 players)
MP bets $32, CO folds, Hero calls $32.

Turn: ($106) J (2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets $70, ...

EV (without Draw): -10.64
EV (with Draw): 4.12

We see clearly that our equity is larger if our opponent makes smaller continuation bets.

When should I float?

As a conclusion the following points:

  • Try to float in position.
  • Try to float with draws, even if they are weak draws.
  • Float against weak continuation bets.
  • Watch your opponents! Don't float a calling station.

How big should I bet on the turn?

In general, the turn bet should be large enough to put the EV to the maximum. It is a very opponent specific and image specific decision. As a general recommendation you should bet 2/3 potsize.

Conclusion

Floating is a very complex topic and is difficult to implement. To get a feeling for tha appropriate situations you should analyze your hands afterwards and to learn from them.

Floating is a good move to raise your winrate especially in the high limits given that you float in the right situations. If you float in the wrong situations it can be very expensive.

Overview