Bluffs (1) - Preflop
Introduction
In this article
- Bluffing basics
- Different preflop bluffs
- Important factors
Bluffs are an important tool for survival in the poker world. Along with value bets and protection bets, they are one of the most important moves in the repertoire of a poker player. They are used for plays with a positive expected value and for balancing.
The article illustrates several situations for which you should try to figure out if a preflop bluff would make sense and how likely it would be successful. This will enable you to analyse such spots more thoroughly in your own game and exploit potential spots in the future.
Bluffing basics
First of all, we need to define what a bluff is.
"The goal of a bluff is to force a better hand out of the pot by playing aggressively!"
This article primarily focuses on pure bluffs, which exclusively aim to generate fold equity. Moves that you make when you still have a reasonable amount of equity (semi-bluffs) will not be discussed specifically. That topic has already been examined elsewhere:
The goal is to find spots in which you can force your opponent to give up by creating fold equity. For this to work, a number of conditions have to be met. The following aspects will be explained in more detail below:
- Your opponent(s)
- Your own hand (card removal effect)
- History/image
- Balancing/deception
To answer most basic questions, such as "Can I bluff in this spot?" or "Do I have positive expected value if I bluff?", you need to evaluate your opponents thoroughly.
Stats are very important for this. If the sample size is big enough, they can provide you with a clear picture of the behaviour of a specific opponent. Preflop, these are mainly stats that are concerned with how your opponents react to aggressive behaviour (VPIP, fold to 3-bet, fold to 4-bet, fold SB/BB to steal etc.).
You need correct figures in order to be able to make rough estimations. We will also look at "preparatory bluffs" in the different scenarios. This means that it is obviously profitable to 3-bet an opponent who never folds to a 3-bet, but gives up on the flop in over 80% of all cases. Of course, stats about this are also important. You plan your hand in advance and when you make such moves, you want to know if you will be able to continue your story on later streets and if your opponents will buy it.
Although many people think that your own hand does not determine the success of your bluff, it does, in fact, play a very important role.
Look at the three following examples where you are in position and bluff 3-bet a loose player, who will occasionally call your 3-bet.
J
4
You will rarely hit the flop with this hand. You will inevitably end up in -EV spots.
A 9
The playability of this hand isn't ideal either. Even a top pair on the flop will rarely make you happy if your opponent starts playing aggressively. Your kicker is too weak for that.
However, the card removal effect kicks in here. You have an ace so it is less likely for Villain to have one as well. This means that your bluff 3-bet with Ax has a much higher EV and more fold equity than a re-steal with J4o.
Find out more about the card removal effect here (German only - paragraph 4 in the article series).
5
6
With this hand, you won't achieve a card removal effect. However, you have another trick up your sleeve. Even if your opponent calls, you can often hit a helpful flop with this hand and play quite comfortably when you are in position. Your hand therefore has high playability.
You have to consider the table history and your own image whenever you act. It is not only important what you think about your opponents but also how they perceive you.
If several of your bluffs against certain opponents have gone wrong already, you might want to consider shifting down a gear or two. If you have a tight image, your opponents have to give you some credit, which in turn will result in a higher fold equity.
You will acquire these skill over the course of your poker career. To learn not to bluff at the wrong time is one of the most important aspects of bluffing itself.
These two factors are the most important reasons why you should bluff in the first place. It obviously makes sense to bluff against opponents who fold their hands too often. Nevertheless, you should keep in mind that you also bluff in order to make money with your strong hands.
You want to make it impossible for your opponents to read you. You don't want them to know whether you are betting for value, bluffing or semi-bluffing. That's what deception is all about.
In order to balance your lines, you need hand ranges for each move and opponents who do a little bit of thinking during a game.
Without blinds or thinking opponents, you wouldn't need to bluff at all and could simply just play your aces and kings. In this way you could be sure that your play is always +EV. Obviously, this is nonsense.
In practice, you can't only use the very best hands to raise or steal because it would be all too easy to put you on a hand. If you 3-bet only 2% of the time, it's only ever going to be AA/KK and occasionally QQ/AK. Knowing this, your opponents would come up with an ideal play against you.
For this reason alone, it is important to incorporate bluffs into your game.
Types of preflop bluffs
What types of bluffs are there before the flop?
- Loose steals in late position
- Loose 3-bets in late position
- 3-bet bluffs out of position
- Squeeze play
- 4-bet bluffs
You will learn about the mathematical background behind each of these moves, the required fold equity, and how to proceed postflop.
PartyPoker $100 NL Hold’em (6 handed)
Stacks & Stats
UTG ($100)
MP ($100)
CO ($100)
Hero ($100)
SB ($100)
BB ($100)
Preflop: Hero is Button with 9 , 6
3 folds, Hero raises to $4.00, ...
You don't need a strong hand for a loose steal. First-in on the button, you should be able to generate a lot of fold equity against the blinds.
The maths heavily depends on your raise size. A raise of 4 big blinds is quite large, although it is the recommended raise size in the beginner's section.
Theoretically, you could already steal if you raise by 2 big blinds. However, 2.5 to 3 big blinds are ideal. Obviously, the fold equity varies with the size of your raise. Your opponents are usually less likely to fold to a minraise than to an open raise of 4BB (which makes sense because at least the big blind gets excellent odds).
Raise size: 4BB => to win 1BB + 0.5 BB => required fold equity (4/(4+1.5))=72.7%
Raise size: 3BB => to win 1BB + 0.5 BB => required fold equity (3/(3+1.5))=66.66%
Raise size: 2.5 BB => to win 1BB + 0.5 BB => required fold equity (2.5/(2.5+1.5))=62.5%
Raise size: 2 BB => to win 1BB + 0.5 BB => required fold equity (2/(2+1.5))=57.1%
The required fold equity decreases with the raise size.
How much fold equity do you get? If you have a sample size big enough to assess your opponent's behaviour, you can theoretically use it to calculate the fold equity by multiplying the fold-to-SB stat/BB steal figures.
SB: fold SB to Steal 84%
BB: fold BB to Steal 81%
Fold equity = 0.84 * 0.81 = 68%
Not taken into account are all the factors mentioned above (history, image, ...) as well as side effects that can't be represented mathematically (SB might always fold to raises from early position but defend aggressively against BU open-raises).
The most important stats:
- VPIP: How often does your opponent usually call to see the flop?
- folded SB/BB to steal: How frequently does your opponent surrender his blinds?
- 3-bet stat: How frequently does your opponent 3-bet to defend himself?
An open-raise in this sense is not meant to be a preparatory bluff. You have all other options available, such as a preflop 4-bet bluff or a loose call, to move postflop.
The card removal effect is only of secondary interest here because you are up against a huge range. If the blinds regularly defend, having a hand with playability is an advantage. 96s is a borderline case.
Obviously, it is an advantage if your opponents tend to check/fold the flop very often, as this will give you the opportunity to make another profitable bluff on the flop.
PartyPoker $100 NL Hold’em (6 handed)
Stacks & Stats
UTG ($100)
MP ($100)
CO ($100)
Hero ($100)
SB ($100) (18 / 15 / 84 / 68 ) (VPIP ; PFR ; fold SB to steal ; fold to contibet flop)
BB ($100) (15 / 6 / 87 / 56 ) (VPIP ; PFR ; fold BB to steal ; fold to contibet flop)
Preflop: Hero is button with X X
3 folds, Hero raises to $4.00, 1 fold, BB calls $4.00
A perfect spot. You are up against two tight opponents who rarely defend their blinds. In the worst case scenario, a call, you still have the option of making a continuation bet on the flop. They will still fold their hands often enough.
As long as the players don't adapt and you really do create a fold equity of (0.84*0.87) 73%, you can steal any 2 here. It is possible that an open-raise of 2.5 BB or even a minraise will do the job. You should keep the principle of deception in mind when varying your raise sizes.
PartyPoker $100 NL Hold’em (6 handed)
Stacks & Stats
UTG ($100)
MP ($100)
CO ($100)
Hero ($100)
SB ($100) (30 / 10 / 55 / 45 ) (VPIP ; PFR ; fold SB to steal ; fold to contibet flop)
BB ($100) (25 / 21/ 79 / 51 / 9) (VPIP ; PFR ; fold BB to steal ; fold to contibet flop ; % 3-bet from the BB)
Preflop: Hero is button with X X
3 folds, Hero raises to $4.00, 1 fold, BB calls $4.00
The small blind calls quite frequently, the fold equity is not high (=>55%). The big blind will only rarely call, but 3-bet 9% of the time, in situations when he defends from the BB. You should expect heavy resistance here.
On the flop, both players will be difficult to separate from their hands. Besides insufficient fold equity, you might encounter tricky and costly postflop spots, possibly with multiple barrels. You should therefore limit your stealing range. All pocket pairs, suited connectors, Ax, etc., should be included in your range, of course.
PartyPoker $100 NL Hold’em (6 handed)
Stacks & Stats
UTG ($100)
MP ($100)
CO ($100)
Hero ($100)
SB ($100)
BB ($100)
Preflop: Hero is Button with A , 7
2 folds, CO raises to $4.00, Hero raises to $12.00,...
Loose 3-bets in late position can have many advantages. Firstly, they confront your opponent with a tough decision because it is particularly difficult to call a 3-bet when you are out of position.
The problem is that you have to invest a lot of money in order to take the pot immediately.
The most important factors to consider here are Villain's raise size and the size of your 3-bet. The standard rule is to bet 3 times the size of the open raise (OR), whereas for small bets you should 3-bet slightly higher as to not give your opponent overly good odds for a call.
OR: $4 ; 3-bet $12 => $12 to win $5.50 ($4+$1+$0.50) => 12/(12+5.50) = 68.6% required fold equity
OR: $4 ; 3-bet $14 => $14 to win $5.50 ($4+$1+$0.50) => 14/(14+5.50) = 71.8% required fold equity
OR: $3 ; 3-bet $9 => $9 to win $4.50 ($3+$1+$0.50) => 9/(9+4.50) = 66.6% required fold equity
OR: $3 ; 3-bet 11$ => $11 to win $4.50 ($3+$1+$0.50) => 11/(11+4.50) = 71% required fold equity
As you can see, the fold equity depends on these two figures. The bigger your 3-bet, the more frequently it has to be successful. The smaller your 3-bet, on the other hand, the more likely it is to get called.
You have just seen that in several standard examples the required fold equity is somewhere between 66% and 72%, Therefore, the fold-to-3-bet value is of particular interest here. If the value is over 72%, the move itself is already +EV.
Just as important is how Villain responds to 3-bets in other situations, i.e. what does he do the other x% of the time? Does he call or maybe 4-bet? These are other important factors when considering a preparatory bluff.
On the flop, it would be helpful to know how frequently Villain is likely to give up his hand on the flop, i.e. his check/fold frequency in a 3-bet pot. This isn't of much use, however, if he folds to 3-bets 70% of the time and 4-bets 20% of the time. The fold equity on the flop depends on how frequently Villain gets himself into these spots.
As has just been mentioned, you still have many options postflop. If you don't 3-bet too big, you can bet on the flop and on the turn and create a lot of fold equity.
You always have to keep this option in mind. If Villain checks/folds 60% of the time on the flop and over 60% of the time on the turn in 3-bet pots, then the preflop 3-bet becomes profitable even if Villain never folds to a 3-bet preflop. You will win the pot on later streets often enough.
An example using the following player:
OR: $3 ; 3-bet $12 => $11 to win $4.50 ($3+$1+$0.50) => 11/(11+4.50) = 71% required fold equity
Villain never folds to 3-bets, might be a -EV spot.
Flop: Pot ($25.50), Contibet $15 => 37% required fold equity!
However, Villain folds in 60% of all cases. This is a perfect example of a preparatory bluff.
Another important factor is assessing the behaviour of the blinds. If they are likely to cold call 3-bets or make a light 4-bet, the expected value of your move will decrease. You need to keep an eye on any opponent that could still play a role in the hand.
Which hands are suitable candidates? Ideally, the card removal effect will kick in. Alternatively, you should consider whether a call is the better choice. If the blinds are very loose, you should rather call than 3-bet pocket pairs and suited connectors.
Hence, for a pure bluff Ax/Kx hands, even without much playability, are suitable candidates.
PartyPoker $100 NL Hold’em (6 handed)
Stacks & Stats
UTG ($100)
MP ($100)
CO ($100) (20/10/80/45/10) (VPIP/PFR/fold to 3bet / fold to flopconti 3bPot / fold to turnconti 3bPot)
Hero ($100)
SB ($100) tight, no resistance expected
BB ($100) tight, no resistance expected
Preflop: Hero is button with A , 7
2 folds, CO raises to $4.00, Hero raises to $12.00,...
A perfect spot for a 3-bet. Your opponent folds to 3-bets 80% of the time, probably even more frequently when he is out of position. The blinds are unlikely to cause you much trouble, neither by making a loose call nor by making a loose 4-bet.
Even if the cutoff calls, he will fold to a bet on the flop 44% of the time. As you have seen earlier, the fold equity has to be less than 40%. You therefore have another profitable bluffing spot here.
From the turn onwards, Villain tends to be committed to the pot which is why you should just give up then.
Your line should be 3-bet preflop / contibet flop / fold turn.
PartyPoker $100 NL Hold’em (6 handed)
Stacks & Stats
UTG ($100)
MP ($100)
CO ($100) (16/12/50/28/56) (VPIP/PFR/fold to 3-bet / fold to flopconti-3bPot / fold to turnconti-3bPot)
Hero ($100)
SB ($100) tight, no resistance expected
BB ($100) tight, no resistance expected
Preflop: Hero is Button with A , 7
2 folds, CO raises to $4.00, Hero raises to $12.00,...
Although the blinds don't play a role in this hand, the opponent is everything but the ideal candidate for a 3-bet. At first, he might seem more suitable than the player in the previous hand, but the important stats tell a different story. He will too rarely fold before or on the flop. You can already tell that you won't have sufficient fold equity for neither of the bluffs. Even the high fold stat on the turn doesn't change the verdict.
You should find a fold here.
PartyPoker $100 NL Hold’em (6 handed)
Stacks & Stats
UTG ($100)
MP ($100)
CO ($100)
BU ($100)
SB ($100)
Hero ($100)
Preflop: Hero is BB with A , 4
3 folds, BU raises to $4.00, 1 fold, Hero raises to $13.00,...
Here it becomes obvious why you should 3-bet slightly higher when out of position (3x + 1 or 2 BB is recommended).
With 3-bets out of position, the fold equity will rise when increasing the 3-bet size. There is a healthy middle ground which considers both relevant factors:
- Aggressive play creates fold equity.
- It doesn't have to work too often.
You could just minraise every time. Whereas this wouldn't have to work too often, it also creates significantly less fold equity. Moreover, it will frequently get you into dangerous -EV spots postflop and make it hard to balance your value 3-bets.
You therefore want to create slightly more fold equity out of position because your opponents in position are more likely to call a 3-bet. You should 3-bet slightly bigger.
Another important example is the continuation bet, which in an unraised pot should be roughly 2/3 of the pot size. It creates great fold equity and doesn't always have to work. At the same time, it helps extract value with made hands and protect them (always keep balancing in mind).
Relevant here are the same stats that are of interest for a 3-bet in position.
This is where it gets a bit tricky. It is out of question that you can bluff postflop out of position. The relevant stats are the same as in position. Alternatively, you could only incorporate check raises to balance your check/folds.
There is no doubt: it's always harder to play out of position. 3-bet pots don't make it any easier. You should try to avoid these spots. Thats why it is vital to have good reads on your opponent.
Always take into consideration the player in the big blind when you 3-bet in the small blind. If you are in the big blind, you are last to act anyway.
Your opponents will call more often when in position than when they are out of position. It would be of advantage to prefer hands with good playability. While the card removal effect is important, A5o is harder to play in a 3-bet pot than 56s is. Especially hands such as suited connectors have quite good playability in a 3-bet pot. You can use them to make bluff 3-bets rather frequently. Disadvantages include the missing card removal effect and high-variance decisions postflop. When you flop a draw, you have no choice but to play it aggressively.
PartyPoker $100 NL Hold’em (6 handed)
Stacks & Stats
UTG ($100)
MP ($100)
CO ($100)
BU ($100) (25/22/74/50/37) (VPIP/PFR/fold to 3bet/fold to flopconti 3bPot/fold to turnconti 3bPot)
SB ($100)
Hero ($100)
Preflop: Hero is BB with 5 , 6
3 folds, BU raises to $4.00, 1 fold, Hero raises to $13.00,...
Great spot! Although the card removal effect is missing here , the 3-bet as well as the continuation bet should both be +EV on suitable flops. Your suited connectors will rarely be dominated but you will often hit strong hands. Also, the button often seems to steal loosely, which makes the occasional loose 3-bet a necessity.
PartyPoker $100 NL Hold’em (6 handed)
Stacks & Stats
UTG ($100)
MP ($100)
CO ($100)
BU ($100) (20/8/33/30/33) (VPIP/PFR/fold to 3-bet / fold to flopconti 3bPot / fold to turnconti 3bPot)
SB ($100)
Hero ($100)
Preflop: Hero is BB with 5 , 6
3 folds, BU raises to $4.00, 1 fold, Hero raises to $13.00,...
Bad spot! Your opponent calls far too often and can't be bluffed off any pair, not even postflop. You don't hit often enough with a suited connector. In this case, light value 3-bets are a good idea (KQ/AJ etc.).
Above anything else, you should consider a fold unless you have such good reads on your opponent that you have reason to believe that you can play your hand successfully out of position.
PartyPoker $100 NL Hold’em (6 handed)
Stacks & Stats
UTG ($100)
MP ($100)
CO ($100)
Hero ($100)
SB ($100)
BB ($100)
Preflop: Hero is Button with A , 5
1 fold, MP raises to $4.00, CO calls $4.00, Hero raises to $16.00,...
A squeeze play is a 3-bet after an open raise and a caller. The benefits are obvious: You have to invest slightly more when you make a 3-bet, but you can win a lot more. Also, it will be hard for your opponents to call a squeeze play because they don't usually get good odds. That's why they will frequently fold or 4-bet (or push). This makes your bluff very easy to play.
However, it also has disadvantages. One obvious problem is that your play has to get two opponents to fold in order to be successful. Furthermore, if the openraiser calls, the cold caller will get very good odds as well. You will often be faced with two opponents on the flop when your bluff goes wrong.
Also, your choices on the flop in case of a call are limited because the pot is already much bigger than in an ordinary 3-bet pot. A second barrel on the turn is therefore often not even an option. This is because on the one hand it would have to be played as a push, on the other hand it would hardly create any fold equity.
PartyPoker $100 NL Hold’em (6 handed)
Stacks & Stats
UTG ($100)
MP ($100)
CO ($100)
Hero ($100)
SB ($100)
BB ($100)
Preflop: Hero is Button with A , 5
1 fold, MP raises to $4.00, CO calls $4.00, Hero raises to $16.00, 2 folds, MP folds, CO calls $16.00
Flop: ($37.50) X X X (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $20.00, CO calls $20.00
Turn: ($67.50) X (2 players)
CO checks, Hero has only $64 left...
Even with a relatively small squeeze, raising to 4 times the amount of the initial raise, and a rather small continuation bet, your stack on the turn isn't even the size of the pot anymore.
Once again it all depends on the size of the open raise and the size of the 3-bet that you have in mind.
Given a normal raise size of your opponents, you should aim to quadruple the raise when in position and add one to two big blinds when out of position.
In position:
Open raise / coldcall / squeeze / blinds
$4 / $4 / $16 / $1.50 => 16/(16+4+4+1.5) = 62.7% required fold equity
$3 / $3 / $12 / $1.50 => 12/(12+3+3+1.5) = 61.5% required fold equity
Out of Position (Big Blind):
open raise / cold call / squeeze / blinds
(Raise to $18): $4 / $4 / $17 / $1.50 => 17/(17+4+4+1.5) = 64.1% required fold equity
(Raise to $14): $3 / $3 / $13 / $1.50 => 13/(13+3+3+1.5) = 63.4% required fold equity
In the big blind, the blind you placed doesn't belong to you anymore, so you have to subtract the size of the blind (if you raise to $18, you only have to pay $17). However, you should raise bigger than you would out of position.
As you can see, these differences are marginal. The required fold equity is somewhere between 61% and 64%.
The type of player you are facing is the most important factor here because there is no explicit "fold to squeeze" stat. You don't want your opponents to be very aggressive. A high "fold to 3-bet" stat (although you can't directly apply this stat to a squeeze) and a low 4-betting frequency are also important. Furthermore, it doesn't make sense to squeeze against a 20/4 player who raises UTG.
Several different types of players will be examined in the following examples.
In case your squeeze gets called, the only options you have left are a bluff bet on the flop or a bluff push on the turn. It is difficult to tell against which opponent you are likely to have much success. A high "fold to flop bet" stat doesn't necessarily mean it's a good squeeze spot. On the one hand you don't get called often enough, on the other hand a squeeze spot is an entirely different scenario. Villain has been forced to invest more money and will let go of his hand less frequently. Furthermore, the likelihood of running into a trap hand (QQ+) is much greater.
PartyPoker $100 NL Hold’em (6 handed)
Stacks & Stats
UTG ($100)
MP ($100) (19/16/55/55/44/7) (VPIP/PFR / ft 3bet/ft flopconti 3bPot/ ft turnconti 3bPot/4 bet)
CO ($100) (19/5/40/60/45/0) (VPIP/PFR / ft 3bet/ft flopconti 3bPot/ ft turnconti 3bPot/4 bet)
Hero ($100)
SB ($100)
BB ($100)
Preflop: Hero is Button with X X
1 fold, MP raises to $4.00, CO calls $4.00, Hero...
A useful spot. MP will open raise quite frequently, although he won't be tempted to 4-bet a lot. He just doesn't seem the type to adapt to loose squeezes, especially not when there's still a passive player behind him and he's playing sandwiched in.
The cutoff's game is a little strange, however he can fold his hands as well. All in all it's not sufficient to consider fold equity alone, however, you still have postflop advantages, as you can play with initiative in position.
That's why a squeeze is a reasonable option.
PartyPoker $100 NL Hold’em (6 handed)
Stacks & Stats
UTG ($100)
MP ($100) (28/25/64/49/30/19) (VPIP/PFR / ft 3bet/ft flopconti 3bPot/ ft turnconti 3bPot/4-bet)
CO ($100) (40/10/25/24/29/0) (VPIP/PFR / ft 3bet/ft flopconti 3bPot/ ft turnconti 3bPot/4-bet)
Hero ($100)
SB ($100)
BB ($100)
Preflop: Hero is Button with X X
1 fold, MP raises to $4.00, CO calls $4.00, Hero...
Not a good spot. This time, MP is a very aggressive player. The high fold-to-3-bet stat looks good at first but his 4-bet stat is alarming. This opponent is likely to push to your squeeze. He might do it as a bluff or as a thin value play but that makes no difference to you (your squeeze is a bluff so you can't call a push either way).
You don't like the Cutoff either. He shows clear signs of a calling station. He is unable to fold his hands to 3-bets or barrels on the flop or turn. The mixture of aggressive MP and loose Cutoff make this spot very unsuitable for a pure bluff.
PartyPoker $100 NL Hold’em (6 handed)
Stacks & Stats
UTG ($100)
MP ($100)
Hero ($100)
BU ($100)
SB ($100)
BB ($100)
Preflop: Hero is CO with A , T
2 folds, Hero raises to $4.00, BU raises to $12.00, 2 folds, Hero raises to $27.00,...
You 4-bet bluff with hands that you don't want to call a 3-bet with. Instead you raise again with the intention of folding to a shove / 5-bet.
You should try not to make too big of a 4-bet in order to avoid committing yourself to the pot by accident (the odds for calling a potential push will be quite good).
A few different scenarios:
Cold-4-bet
Raise / 3-Bet / 4-Bet
$4 / $14 / $30 => invested $30 to win $19.50 ($14+$4+$1.50) => 30/(30+19.50) = 60.6% required fold equity
$4 / $11 / $25 => invested $25 to win $16.50 ($11+$4+$1.50) => 25/(25+16.50) = 60.2% required fold equity
$3 / $9 / $22 => invested $22 to win $13.50 ($9+$3+$1.50) => 22/(22+13.50) = 62% required fold equity
$3 / $12 / $28 => invested $28 to win $16.50 ($12+$3+$1.50) => 28/(28+16.50) = 62.9% required fold equity
4-Bet after openraise
Raise / 3-bet / 4-bet
4$ / 14$ / 30$ => invested 26$ to win 19,50$ (14$+4$+1,50$) => 26/(26+19,50) = 57,1% required fold equity
4$ / 11$ / 25$ => invested 21$ to win 16,50$ (11$+4$+1,50$) => 21/(21+16,50) = 56% required fold equity
3$ / 9$ / 22$ => invested 19$ to win 13,50$ (9$+3$+1,50$) => 19/(19+13,50) = 58,5% required fold equity
3$ / 12$ / 28$ => invested 25$ to win 16,50$ (12$+3$+1,50$) => 25/(25+16,50) = 60,2% required fold equity
You can assume that you need roughly 56% - 63% fold equity.
The "fold to 4-bet" stat is important here. If it's above 60, the move becomes profitable.
The overall image of your opponent is also important. Bluff 4-bets are particularly useful when you have to defend yourself against opponents who force you out of the pot too often. The move itself might even be -EV, but it can help your future game: You will be less likely to face resteals and you will be able to 4-bet/call lighter with value hands.
This move makes no sense against calling stations or players with a low 3-bet stat. Anybody only 3-betting 3% of his hands will rarely bluff. It makes no sense to (bluff) 4-bet against such a tight range.
The 4-bet bluff basically ends the hand. In case your opponent actually calls, you'll most likely be lost on the flop. Whether you really want to contibet or not depends on your evaluation of the board.
Calling a 4-bet is often a trap. You will frequently run into high pocket pairs or AK and sometimes AQ. You won't have much fold equity. Only few opponents will call 4-bets with the intention of giving up on the flop. If you have an opponent, however, who is likely to play that line, the decision to 4-bet bluff was wrong in the first place.
PartyPoker $100 NL Hold’em (6 handed)
Stacks & Stats
UTG ($100)
MP ($100)
Hero ($100)
BU ($100) (25/19/11/51) (VPIP/PFR / 3-bet BU / ft4-bet)
SB ($100)
BB ($100)
Preflop: Hero is CO with A , T
2 folds, Hero raises to $4.00, BU raises to $12.00, 2 folds, Hero...
A good spot for a 4-bet bluff. Since you are out of position, you can't call with most hands so you have to choose between folding and 4-betting in this spot. Your opponent 3-bets 11% on the button, which will cause you trouble in the future.
Despite the ft4-bet stat of only 51% (you need around 60-63% as we saw earlier) the move is a good idea in this spot (depending on your hand). You will be less likely to get a 3-bet in the next rounds and won't have to hesitate to 4-bet strong hands for value.
PartyPoker $100 NL Hold’em (6 handed)
Stacks & Stats
UTG ($100)
MP ($100)
Hero ($100)
BU ($100) (18/14/5/50) (VPIP/PFR/3-bet BU/ft4-bet)
SB ($100)
BB ($100)
Preflop: Hero is CO with A , T
2 folds, Hero raises to $4.00, BU raises to $12.00, 2 folds, ...
This is a very different spot. Your opponent merely 3-bets 5% of his hands on the button. This isn't a lot and, without any further reads or history, a good reason not to start a big bluff. The ft4-bet value is small simply because your opponent usually only 3-bets good hands that he is willing to go broke with.
Summary
You now have an overview of the most frequent types of preflop bluffs. The maths behind them as well as other aspects that play a role have been illustrated in this article. You always have to take these factors into consideration.
When making these moves, always remember that your opponents may sometimes pay particular attention to what you are doing. Always keep in mind the aspects of balancing and deception. If you don't bluff, you won't get paid off with strong hands. You will also be easier to read and your opponents will make fewer mistakes against you.
Another important aspect is your equity. The examples in this article only dealt with the principles behind bluffs, but not with those behind semi-bluffs. There is no hand that you would raise merely based on your fold equity preflop, you always have a certain amount of equity left. Even an unsuccessful preflop bluff with any 2 can hit two pair, trips, straight draws or similar hands postflop. You always have to keep this in mind.
Try to incorporate bluffs into your game and take advantage of your edge.
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