Squeeze play

Introduction

In this article

• Loose open raisers are ideal candidates for squeeze play
• A great situation: BB vs. BU + SB
• Reads are important!
  

This article deals with another move that should be part of every high-limit poker player's arsenal: the squeeze.

What is a squeeze play?

A squeeze play is a pre-flop bluff in the form of a big re-raise and happens after one player raises and at least one other player calls the raise. Ideally, the initial raiser will surrender his hand because he is stuck between two or more opponents and doesn't know how the players behind him will act. The second player and all the players after him often don't have a hand strong enough to call a raise followed by a subsequent re-raise.

This article illustrates the factors that determine the success or failure of a squeeze play and how to react if your continuation bet gets called.

What determines the success of a squeeze play?

One of the most important factors, even though seemingly trivial, that determines the success of a squeeze play is your table image. The tighter and more solid you appear to be and the more passive and inconspicuous you act pre-flop, the more likely it is that your re-raise will be respected as an indicator of a strong hand.

A relatively low PFR stat, for example less than 14%, can be very helpful in establishing this image. If there are regulars at the table, you should try to come across as having a percentage similar to 14% throughout a large number of hands. Possibly through hands played at other tables or during previous sessions. If you 3-bet pre-flop in previous hands, it would help your image if you actually do have a monster at the showdown, such as QQ+ or AK.

On the other hand an aggressive image is established, for example by having a PFR of 20% or more, or by having raised many previous hands without showing a strong hand on the showdown. This will not help the success rate of a squeeze play because your opponents will be much less likely to fold.

While this factor isn't as important, it should not be ignored completely. If you are considered a good, or more importantly, an aggressive post flop player, your opponents will try to avoid large pot confrontations if they have a marginal hand.

Important questions to ask yourself are:

• Do you make enough continuation bets after a pre-flop reraise?
• Do you fire enough 2nd barrels on the turn?
• Do you often get out of a pot with strong hands without losing your stack?
• Do you check raise often enough?

Your answer to all these questions should be a yes. Impressive laydowns or bluffs on unconventional boards, which your opponent will probably remember or note down, would make a squeeze easier.

It is a huge advantage to have have position on your opponents, particularly when the stack is very big. It is difficult to squeeze when out of position because you are first to act on the flop. Your bet will often be called and you will face a big pot and a very tough decision on the turn. You might make very expensive mistakes in this situation. To avoid them you require reliable reads and a lot of experience - but even that is no guarantee.

Your own stack size as well as the sizes of your opponents stacks (i.e. of both the initial raiser and the players that call his raise) are relevant. The deeper your stack and the higher the implied odds of your hand, the wider the range for a squeeze play can be.

The 'position' factor is closely related to this. If you hold moderately strong hands (TT-QQ or AQ) and are relatively deep, for example with an effective stack of 150-200BB, a squeeze would be more inefficient, especially if OOP.

This is because it is only very difficult to play for pot control if you have a hand that is likely to be moderately strong post flop. However, if you hold a hand with high implied odds (e.g. small PPs, SCs) and are on the button, you can re-raise more often because you will be able to control the pot quite well. You have a clearly defined hand and therefore high playability.

You should be careful about tilt. On the one hand, your move should not be interpreted by other players as a result of tilting and on the other hand, you should avoid squeezing a tilting player.

If possible, make sure not to squeeze after losing a big pot. Your table image will be temporarily affected by this and your opponents are likely to take it as a loose move. Similarly, none of the other players should be on tilt. This is not always easy to recognise, but if a solid player suddenly starts playing as many big pots as possible and showing much more aggression than usual and/or has just suffered an expensive loss... then be careful!

Moreover, you can frustrate a player by re-raising him repeatedly. It is not uncommon for a player who usually only goes all in with hands such as AK or QQ to push weaker hands such as Ax,after the third or fourth re-raise in a row. That's why you get much higher implied odds with your monster hands. This effect has to be taken into consideration for the whole table. If you have already made two or three squeeze plays at a table, your EV will increase considerably thanks to your previously established image when getting aces.

Sufficient and reliable reads on the open raiser are an absolute necessity for a squeeze play. If you don't have any experience against this player, you need a truly ideal situation to justify a squeeze play. The better you know the player, the more profitable the move, especially if your opponent calls.

These stats are important here:

• PFR: The higher, the better. A high PFR signals that this player will open with many marginal hands. If the open raiser is a rock however, this player will often play a hand that he simply doesn't want to (and in most cases should not) fold before the flop.
• The VPIP and Call PFR stat: The tighter a player is before the flop the better. A high VPIP indicates a great interest to see many flops. A high Call PFR stat indicates defiance or self confidence regarding a player's own post flop competence. Neither of these are good for a squeeze play on your part.
  • Exception: You have a moderately strong hand. In this situation you might choose a 3-bet over a call. Some players have a very high Call PFR stat and are aggressive pre-flop raisers at the same time. If such a player calls on the button, it is often profitable to squeeze with hands such as TT/JJ or AQs. If you get called, your hand still won't lose its attraction.
• Individual reads:
  • Does your opponent re-raise or push with monsters (AA, KK) and AK against a 3-bet? IP? OOP? Or does he often, or even always, try to trap us with such a hand?

An early position raiser will often find more than one caller. Let's assume UTG raises, MP calls, CO calls and BU calls. Hero is the SB. MP and CO are in middle position. If the last caller also gets the chance to be last to act pre-flop, the callers in middle position will be in a squeeze. Similarly to the initial raiser, even if they don't believe that the re-raiser has a strong hand, they don't know if the hands of players after them would make a call or a raise unprofitable. As these players find themselves in a strategically bad position (they are in a squeeze situation and haven't signalled a strong hand), they are the least threatening factors.

You should still pay attention to the following stats:

• PFR: The higher, the better. Rocks might have avoided a re-raise and even called with a strong hand, particularly with AK.
• VPIP and Call PFR stat: see previous section on "The Open Raiser"
• Individual reads: This is primarily about trapping with big pairs. Some players, especially in early position, tend to only call their strong hands instead of 3-betting them. This doesn't happen too often, but when it does, it changes your situation considerably. That's why keeping notes is very important whenever you have noticed this kind of trend in a player. It is also relevant to find out if he only calls or if he 4-bets with these hands (see above).

This player has a significant role and together with the open raiser, he is one of the decisive players. It is very rare for him to have a strong hand when he is in late position, especially if other players previously call the first raise. The option to re-raise in such a situation is usually much better than simply calling.

However, he knows that he is last to act and doesn't have to fear any other hand. He has a role of table 'sheriff' since he is the last one who might detect potential bluffs.

If all players fold to the last player and this opponent calls your re-raise, the following three points should be noted:

• 1. He almost never has a strong hand such as AK or QQ+. (However, don't completely ignore the PFR here.)
• 2. He rarely has a weak hand such as 22-66 or small suited connectors. The implied odds would be too low to call the 3-bet. (You shouldn't completely ignore the effective stack size.)
• 3. He is often willing to fight for the pot. This assumption is even truer if he has called a large re-raise. He will often have a hand such as KQs, AJ/AQ or even middle pairs, such as 88-JJ.

Note: Your history with the player is very important here. If you have already fought over pots and played some aggressive moves against him in the past, then he'll tend to make relatively light calls against you. Moreover, it won't be rare for him to deviate from the ideal move in order to stack you.

Many of the above stated factors should be taken into account when choosing a re-raise size. As a general rule, a good re-raise is around 3 to 4 times the open raise. In position, you should always raise a little smaller and a little higher OOP. If you want to force all of your opponents out of the pot pre-flop, you have to make sure that your raise is high enough to wreck your opponents' implied odds. You have to convince them that they will hit the flop too rarely to profitably make an expensive pre-flop call.

If you plan to show pre-flop strength and take the pot with a continuation bet if you are called, then your raise doesn't necessarily have to be huge. The act of re-raising is already a sign of strength. This kind of move works particularly well against opponents who call many hands and fold a lot to continuation bets. It also works well when the effective stacks are so deep that even big pre-flop re-raises are always called.

The higher the limits you play at, the more hands will be decided through pre-flop raises. While 3-bets are rather rare at the small limits, 4-bets are no longer uncommon in the higher limits. If your table is very aggressive, you will encounter 4-bets more often. Since 4-bets are a squeeze's worst enemy, you should try to avoid this move at such tables.

Which hands can be squeezed?

You should always squeeze with these hands even if you don't call it a squeeze. In these cases the hands are technically too strong to be called squeezes.

You should be careful with hands like these. Even queens or jacks can lead to trouble against a tight open raiser from early position and a caller OOP. You should play for set value with TT-88 in such situations, with the exception of blind battles.

The reason for this is their bad playability if the squeeze gets called. You have a moderately strong hand, with overcards on the board a lot of the time. You can't be sure that you won't face a stronger pocket pair. If your contibet is called or raised by a good, solid player, your hand is worth as much as a 22. On top of that, you have a high level of deception and an acceptable level of playability in a simple raised pot.

With these hands you can squeeze very well. If you are called, you will always have a clearly defined hand after the contibet - monster or trash - and can play accordingly.

With these hands you can squeeze well against a loose CO or BU open raiser, and also against a loose caller with a high PFR. You can be sure about the strength of your hand in this category. The open raiser can have a very wide range of hands and the loose caller would have raised himself if he had a stronger hand pre-flop. This gives you valuable information. Offsuit hands that are weaker than AQ are not great for this move since you will often be dominated by a caller. You'll rarely hit a draw either, which would allow you to push as a 3-bet on the flop.

The conditions have to be very good to play hands like these. Ideally you would be playing against a TAG, who is very aggressive as a pre-flop open raiser, as well as have position over your opponents. Deep stacks become very important here. To squeeze OOP with SCs is a mistake in most situations. It is often said that you will most likely flop a monster or trash with this hand, but in too many cases you will only hit 1 pair hands and/or draws, which are rather hard to play out of position.

You should never squeeze with complete trash.

Ax hands have two very good characteristics:

• 1. the probability that there is a strong hand that could call you decreases.
• 2. you have an acceptable amount of equity against every hand with the exception of AA; the chance that someone has two aces at a short-handed table where you already have an ace is lower than 1.5%.

Besides small pairs, these hands are the most suitable ones for a squeeze. In particular A2s-A5s often hit something good and will make decisions a lot easier by bringing about a potential push on the flop. You will have an acceptable equity against almost every hand:

A3s vs. AKo: 31:69
A3s vs. TT: 33:67

In which situations can you squeeze?

This is a great situation for a squeeze play. At the higher limits, aggressive blind stealing is particularly common. Even at the lower limits, you should keep an eye on your opponent's Att. to Steal stat. It isn't rare to see percentages of around 35-40%.

If such an aggressive player open raises from the button and is called by the SB while you are in the BB, you have an ideal re-steal spot. BU often has a very weak hand such as J7s, with which he can't call a re-raise regardless of position.

The SB, however, who should probably assume how weak the BU is, doesn't re-raise and therefore displays weakness. Under these circumstances it is very tough to call another re-raise. In most cases this player will have an average, but not great hand, such as 22-99, AT/AJ, KQ or QJ. Particularly OOP this is a very bad situation to survive post flop in a 3-bet pot. Just experiment with re-stealing a little here.

This situation is much tougher since you have to play OOP post flop. The basic principle is similar to the one above: the CO often makes very loose steals, although his hand ranges are not comparable to those of the button stealer. However, the BU shows tremendous weakness, even more so than the SB in the previous example.

If a reasonable player has TT on the BU, he should almost always re-raise a CO who open raises. If he only calls, it indicates a hand that has good playability in multiway pots and no impressive equity, such as small pairs or suited connectors also including JTo or T9o. It looks as if you can get those hands to fold in most cases by re-raising. However, you should be careful not to make this move too often without a hand that justifies it.

Tricky play. You should obviously not use this too often, but if you also limp/raise with monsters every now and then, this is an ideal spot to become tricky and represent a big pair. You'll usually at least take down the pot with the continuation bet.

The EV of a squeeze play

We'll now calculate the EV of a squeeze for a specific example. You will see that the more information and reads you have on each player involved, the more precise the results of the analysis will be.

You join the table with 100BB, BU and SB cover. You are playing the first orbit at the table. The BU has an Att. to Steal of 35% and a Call Pre-flop Raise of 4% after around 1000 hands. The player in the SB has folded his small blind to a steal in 7 of 11 cases. His Call PFR stat is 7% after 180 hands.

Your hand: A8o

All players fold to the BU who raises to 3.5BB. The SB calls quite quickly. You recognise this to be a good spot for a squeeze play and re-raise to 14BB. You don't risk too much with this re-raise size, and with your stack size you won't give the other players good implied odds for holdings such as small pocket pairs. How big does your fold equity have to be to make this move profitable, i.e. without continuing to play the hand?

Let's look at the size of the pot when it is your turn to act:

3.5BB + 3.5BB + 1BB = 8BB (The rake will be ignored in this example)

A call is the worst option here. It has a negative EV. The EV of a fold is 0. To make the move itself +EV in comparison to the other options, the EV has to be >0.

EV(Squeeze) = p(C)*-(13BB) + p(F)*8BB = p(C)*(-13BB) + (1-p(C))*8BB = 8BB -21BB*p(C) =>

This is the case when 21BB*p(C)<8BB, i.e.: p(C)<0.38.

As the BU is a loose stealer and has a relatively low Call PFR stat, he will fold most hands here.

Let's look at a specific open raising range to illustrate this:

Let's assume the player in the CO raises 1 of 4 hands with an average ATS of 35%. This would give us an ATS stat of 45% of the button. This stat roughly corresponds to the following range: 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q9s+, J8s+, 53s+, 43s+, A2o+, K8o+, Q9o+, T8o+, 54o+

Our sample size for the SB is still insufficient, but we can already speculate that he will call with quite a wide range from the SB (which is horrible!). However, let's not give him 35% here, but rather an estimated range of 20% (with the influence of the variance removed) which roughly corresponds to the hands: 22+, A2s+, KTs+, QTs+, 65s+, ATo+, KJo+, QJo, JTo

The probability of one of the two opponents calling should be smaller than 38%. This is the case when the probability that both opponents fold is above 62%, i.e. when the probability of a pre-flop fold is at 80% for each of the two players. The re-raise calling range for the BU would therefore be: 77+, ATs+, KJs+, AJo+, KQo which is a considerably loose range.

For the SB who is involved with fewer hands, the range would be tighter: TT+, AJs+, AKo.

It is an optimistic to assume that a loose SB will fold that many hands to a re-raise. The fact that he didn't raise himself is helpful because the probability for a monster hand decreases considerably. Let's assume he re-raises 60% of the above mentioned range. This means that the SB is much less likely to hold such a strong hand and you can define a new, more realistic range for the SB-call: 77+, AJs+, KQs, AQo+

These ranges are certainly not unrealistic. If they are accurate, you will find yourself in a situation in which a squeeze itself has a positive EV. Without any hand value it would therefore not matter whether you get raised or called. But we haven't even taken into consideration another factor that is working in your favour. You have an ace which also somewhat lowers the possibility of running into a hand that is strong enough for a call or a raise.

In reality, your EV is much higher because your hand always has post flop value. Against the newly defined ranges of the BU and the SB, you would have an equity of 30%. Even though you would be in a bad position HU against the button as well as in a 3-handed pot, the low playability of your hand is compensated for when you are in position against the SB, or at least when facing the SB on your own.

On top of that some players will fold far too many hands against a contibet, even in re-raised pots. If the BU folds 50% of his hands against a 2/3 pot size contibet, you will again be in a very good +EV situation. In this example, the EV would be: EV(Conti) = 0.5*31.5BB - 0.5*21BB = 5.25BB

With a lower fold equity >40%, the EV is at least always positive, even though without taking the value of your hand in consideration.

To illustrate a calculation that considers all of the mentioned factors is very complex and probably not in the interest of most readers. It would include the fold equity preflop, the fold equity of the continuation bet, a possible rereraise and an estimated EV of your hand when raising on the flop or on the turn - and it would take into account various player types and reads.

That's why we would like to finish by giving you an overview of special conditions under which you would make an +EV play preflop even with a fold equity of only 40% (!) if your HU opponent folds to your continuation bet in 1/3 or more cases.

• You have a small PP.
• Your opponents trap preflop with AA/KK and push their hands on the flop in reaction to your bet.
• You always make a continuation bet of 2/3PS when in HU.
• If BU + SB called, you only play with a set and give yourself implied odds of 1*PS.
• If you get called or raised on the flop HU, you will surrender your hand in all situations in which you don't have a set.
• If you have a set in this situation, you should assume implied odds of about 60% of the new PS.
• If you get a call preflop, you will be HU in 2/3 of all cases, and 3-handed in 1/3 of all cases.

A very clear and quite impressive result even though the assumed conditions here are less than ideal. We should note that we have assumed so far that we will never encounter a 4-bet preflop. Some players will make a 4-bet, however. The last passage of this article will deal with this.

For those of you who are interested in the formula, which we can use for very interesting calculations in the illustrated situation - with pretermined probabilities for a preflop call and/or continuation bet -, it will be explained here: Although the formula is relatively accurate, it is still only an approximation that ignores small positive as well as negative scenarios.

EV(Squeeze) = p(F)*8 + p(C)*p(f|C)*18.5 + p(CC)*1/8*71 + p(C)*p(c|C)*1/8*83.6 - p(C)p(c|C)*7/8*34 - p(CC)*13

Let's take a closer look at this formula:

We assume that a flat call has an EV of below 0, i.e. it is -EV.
Therefore we are comparing the EV of a squeeze play with that of a fold, i.e. with 0.

With EV(Squeeze) > 0, a squeeze play is profitable.

The entire EV depends on various addends or subtrahends, which will be explained in further detail below:

Addend 1, p(F)*8:

The probability of both our opponents folding pre-flop multiplied by the winnings in this case, i.e. 8 BB (3.5+3.5+1).

Addend 2, p(C)*p(f|C)*18.5:

The probability that one of our opponents calls before the flop multiplied by the probability that he will fold to our contibet multiplied by the profit in this case. The 18.5 BB is the profit we would have made in this situation. Of course the potential pot on the flop would have been larger. We also contributed 31.5 BB to the pot, meaning that we would effectively not win 31.5 BB, but only 31.5 BB - 13 BB (the amount by which we raised pre-flop) = 18.5 BB. What you always have to keep in mind with a calculation like this is that if calculating the winning or the loss, you always have to compare the result with the possible alternative; in this case with the pre-flop fold.

Addend 3, p(CC)*1/8*71:

The probability that both opponents cold call before the flop multiplied by the probability that we flop a set, multiplied by the estimated chances of winning 71 BB in total.
This corresponds to implied odds of one pot size on the flop - an estimate that is not too high and in fact quite reasonable. The pot size on the flop is 42 BB. In addition to that we get 42 BB in implied odds; we have to substract 13 BB, which we invested with our raise preflop: we get 71 BB all in all.

Addend 4, p(C)*(c|c)*1/8*83.6:

The probability that we get a call before the flop and the opponent calls (or raises) our contibet multiplied by the probability of having a set in this situation. We again assume to have implied odds and get a profit of 83.6 BB on average.

Subtrahend 1, p(C)*p(c|C)*7/8*34:

Worst case scenario: The money lost by raising pre-flop and getting a caller who does not fold to our contibet as we aren't lucky enough to make a set. In this case, we have invested 13 BB pre-flop and 20 BB on the flop; a total of 34 BB.

Subtrahend 2, p(CC)*7/8*13:

The money lost when both opponents decide to call us before the flop and we don't flop a set. In this case, it would be 13 BB loss.

All in all we have to note once more that these numbers aren't consistently realistic, there are showdowns that we win even though we get called on the flop without flopping a set. We might also get a 4-bet, which is much more common today than it was 1-2 years ago, and we would have to fold. We might also find ourselves on the flop 3-handed, check down and see our pocket pair win.

How can reads help to squeeze?

So far we have assumed that you will never face a 4-bet. While this is not true against many players, there are several players who do follow this strategy. If you have "detected" such a player, you now have a monster read. Your squeeze plays will get a significantly higher EV since you will never have to be afraid to be raised off your hand. You can re-raise a rather wide range of hands, particularly deep-stacked, instead of just calling them for set value. Just like any other good aggressive move, this would positively raise the variance of your play, but would also raise the EV, and that rather dramatically.

Other important reads are overly frequent folds to your contibets. Some fish display this behaviour. Against a few selected players you can squeeze almost every hand from the button and then take the pot with a contibet. These players are generally loose/tight; they are willing to pay plenty for a flop but are scared to continue playing without a good hand. It is important not to take too much advantage of this when there is an aggressive thinking player at your table, who is willing to bluff re-raise a lot.

Against a player with a very high Call-PFR stat, you should use bluff squeezes or semi bluff squeezes only very sparingly, unless it is the above mentioned loose/tight player. This might lead to somewhat difficult post flop situations where you cannot always be sure where you stand. However, when you are in position and are likely to have the best hand, it is the correct move and will be very profitable in the long run.

It is important to know how your opponent plays AK, if he 4-bets AK, and if he does: from what position. It is also interesting to know if the size of the re-raises made by those opponents that hold AK is considerably higher. If this is the case, you can make profitable calls with many PPs.

As mentioned earlier, pay attention to 4-betters at the table! If your opponent is an aggressive 4-better from the button, be warned and think twice about bluffing in a given situation or generating additional value through raises with strong or moderately strong hands!

Conclusion

Squeeze plays are another effective move to have in your poker arsenal, but require an attentive and focused player that always keeps an eye on his opponents. Your own image, your opponent's playing style, your relative position to them and the size of the stacks are the relevant factors determining the success of this play.

A simple principle is that a squeeze only makes sense when the opponents can fold. On the other hand, the ranges of the opponents, especially the range of the open raiser, have to be big enough for them to be able to hold a hand that they can often surrender.

If you should choose to make a squeeze play, you should also keep in mind that in case of a call on the flop, you will face a relatively large pot and have to be able to play under these circumstances. To only consider a squeeze as a pure bluff, aiming to force all your opponents out of the pot pre-flop by making a big re-raise, falls short of this.