Pre-flop: Blind steals - How to Adjust to Your Opponents

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The blinds are the reason for the action in Texas Hold'em. Without blinds, every player could wait for AA and there wouldn't be a game. The blinds are the only motivation to even put money into the pot before the flop - they are the primary target of an open raise.

Initially, every open-raise is an attack on the money that's already in the pot (the blinds). That's why the definition of an open-raise from the cut-off or the button came to be known as blind steal.

You can see in the Open-Raising Chart (ORC) that the hand range for an open-raise increases dramatically from the CO to the SB. While you only raise 25% of your starting hands from the CO, you raise 38% from the BU and even 60% from the SB.

The fundamental principle for an open-raise is that you have positive expected value against all hands behind you (assuming they are random). Your EV depends on your equity against the hands behind you, on your position, and on the playability of your hand. The combination of these factors determines whether a hand has positive equity up to the showdown. In principle, a hand listed in the ORC will always have an equity edge against the hands behind you.

Not every hand in the ORC has an EQ edge against any random hand, though. Starting with the BU, and especially for the SB, you will find hands in the ORC which don't really have an EQ edge against every random hand. Take T4s (for the SB) and put it into the Equilator. You will see:

Equity Win Split Lose
Player 1: 46.530% 44.204% 4.653% 51.143% T4s
Player 2: 53.470% 51.143% 4.653% 44.204% Random

T4s only has 46.5% equity against a random hand. Why do you raise (even risking a 3-bet) out of position with a hand that's not even a favorite against a random range? The reason is that you've already invested your small blind, which you would otherwise give up without a fight. Additionally, the opponent could fold his big blind even before the flop and you would win the pot without contest. The fold equity generated by a raise thus justifies raising with a hand with no EQ edge. Even if the EV is slightly negative on average, an open-raise can make sense if its EV is higher than the EV of a fold.

In this article, we primarily want to concern ourselves with four questions about open-raises:

• How do you adjust your open-raising range when you generate no fold equity from the blinds?
• How do you adjust your open-raising range when you have a very aggressive SB behind you?
• How do you adjust your open-raising range when you generate above average fold equity from the blinds?
• When can you limp from the SB?

How do you adjust your range?

In a nutshell, you adjust your range accordingly:

• No fold equity -> raise tighter, consider an open-limp against loose-passive opponents from the SB
• A lot of fold equity -> raise looser
• Very aggressive blinds = high 3-bet risk -> raise tighter
• loose-passive BB -> open-limp with certain hands

These directives require you to know how high your fold equity is and how likely a player in a blind position will 3-bet . But how do you know exactly how much fold equity you generate with your steal raise? Or how high the risk of a 3-bet is? As usual, you can't look into your opponents' heads, but there are a couple of indications to help estimate your fold equity.

A good indication for assessing your fold equity is the Elephant/PokerTracker value 'Fold Big Blind to Steal'. This value tells you how often the opponent folds his big blind to a steal-raise (open-raise from the CO or the BU). For more information about this value, take a look at this article: Short-handed Stats – Recommendations for Small Stakes Hold'em

Most TAGs have a value between 45-55% here. Even though this value doesn't explicitly indicate how often the opponent folds to a raise in a specific situation, you can make the following assumptions:

• If the opponent has a low Fold BB to Steal value (<40%), you have less fold equity than is assumed according to the ORC
• If the opponent folds a lot more (>60%), you have better chances for a fold than assumed

Pay attention, though, as this value only starts being somewhat relevant at a sample size of 1000 hands.

You often won't have the necessary sample size to be able to make significant determinations from the Fold BB to Steal value. There are other possibilities for estimating the fold behavior of the blinds though.

The opponent is a fish: The VP$IP is already significant after a relatively small number of hands. If the opponent, for instance, has a VP$IP of 65% after 100 hands, you can assume that he will hardly fold any hand in the BB for a SB.

The opponent is a rock: The opposite is true here. If someone, for example, only has a VP$IP of 18% on a 6-max table, you can usually give yourself higher fold equity for your steal raise.

Imagine you raised AA from the button and the BB calls. You bet through all the streets, win the hand on a 99862 board and the opponent shows you 63o. If he is willing to defend with a hand like 63o, you can assume he will call any steal and that your fold equity is 0.

The 3-bet risk can be deducted from the pre-flop raise value (PFR). If an opponent has a really high PFR (>25%), you can assume that he will 3-bet from the SB against BU raises more often than a TAG. The pre-flop matrix in the heads-up display of the PokerStrategy Elephant can even explicitly show you how often an opponent 3-bet from which position.

It should now be clear which information you should take into consideration for your steal raise. Let's move on and take a look at how to integrate this knowledge into your pre-flop play.

How do you adjust your open-raising range from the BU?

In general, most hands that you open-raise from the button have an EQ edge against a random hand. However, there are still two players behind you, which makes hands like K8o, K7o, Q6s, and K3s-K2s especially marginal, as they have very little playability.

You might have showdown value with A high. Q9o and JTo have a certain playability: you don't have showdown value, but you can hit good draws and, more importantly, you can judge the value of outs on your hole cards more easily.

You will have to fold K7o, K8o and Q6s to a resteal or a bet/raise on the flop.

Scenario: All fold to Hero on BU with K8 / K7 / Q6 / K2

1) SB is (38/25/2.2/42) (VP$IP, PFR, AF, WTS), BB fish

Hero folds - both negative factors come into play here: the BB, being a fish, will hardly fold any hand and the SB likes to 3-bet and is probably even capable of doing so with a hand like 76s. Your hand isn't very playable; avoid this situation and fold.

Tip: If you can't generate any fold equity from the BB, look at his post-flop game. If he tends to play fit or fold on the flop, you can raise him normally according to chart. Keep in mind that this kind of opponent is rather rare, though, and that you will need a good read.

2) SB TAG, BB TAG

Hero raises - against two TAGs, you have a realistic chance of getting both of them to fold. You are also less likely to face a 3-bet, so a raise is more likely pay off in the long run.

3) SB unknown, BB (21/15/1.6/39)

Hero raises - Having a rock in the BB increases you chances of winning the hand without seeing the flop. With an unknown in the SB, you shouldn't make any special adjustments and just stick to the chart.

4) SB and BB unknown

Hero raises - Without information about your opponents, you should generally just play according to the chart. You only make adjustments when you have a good read and reason to do so.

5) SB (42/14/0.9/44), BB (47/19/1.7/41)

Hero raises or folds - This is a borderline case. The opponents are not overly aggressive, but they don't seem to like folding either. A hand like K7o will probably have an EV of +/- 0. It doesn't really matter what you do, since the EV of raising and folding are basically equal. The only difference: Variance, which will naturally be higher when you play than when you fold. It's up to you if you'd rather see higher or lower swings in your bankroll.

You should take the following hands with a grain of salt from the BU: K7o, K8o, K2s, K3s and Q6s. If you run into bad circumstances, you're better off folding.

K9o, Q7s and K4s+ are, however, always good enough for an open-raise from the BU.

Specific adjustments to a 1/3 SB structure

In this case, you should fold K7o, K8o, Q6s, K2s, and K3s from the BU, unless the blinds are folding a lot. You risk less with your open-raises - there is less to be won.

Specific adjustments to a 2/5 SB structure

You should fold K7o from the BU, but otherwise stick to the ORC.

We've explained that you should raise tighter from the BU when you don't generate fold equity from the blinds and/or when there is a high risk of running into a 3-bet. The blinds can, however, sometimes be too tight, in which case you reverse the logic and make looser open-raises from the BU.

Hero is BU with 65s, 54s, 43s, 86s, 75s, T9o
SB TAG, BB rock (21/15/1.8/40/Fold BB 65)

You can raise with suited connectors from the BU (hands not found in the ORC) when you generate very high fold equity from the BB and don't expect the SB to 3-bet. In general, you should only make these loose open-raises with hands that have good playability, since you can know where you stand on the flop and won't face any difficult decisions.

You can make looser raises that allowed in the ORC from the BU (suited connectors, one gappers, T9o) against very tight blinds. You shouldn't go overboard however, as the opponent may also happen to have a hand he wants to play. The important thing is that you have a somewhat playable hand if he does.

How do your adjust your open-raising range from the SB?

In the small blind, your open-raising range according to the ORC corresponds to about 60% of your hands. In contrast to the BU, you only have one opponent behind you now and you already have money at stake in the form of your SB. A lot of hands in your range don't have an equity edge against a random hand any more.

If you're up against opponents that don't fold any hand in the blind war, or even like to 3-bet you, you can quickly end up with a broken nose if you open-raise too loosely from the SB. You can, however, also reverse this logic and raise even more loosely against a tight BB.

Scenario: Hero is SB with J5 (47% EQ vs random)

You're holding a hand without any equity edge against a random hand. You will also be left out of position and little playability after the flop.

a) BB is (53/11/1.1/42/FoldBB 13)

Hero folds - against a loose-passive player you will hardly ever generate any fold equity before the flop. You will often bet the flop and the turn, as you still hope he could fold a better hand. You will, however, often get called down, and end up firing a 3rd barrel or giving up on the river, only to let the opponent show you K high at the showdown.

It's also very hard to catch a monster and win a big pot against a poor opponent with a hand like J5o. The biggest edge of a TAG is, especially against fish, only getting involved in situations in which he already has an advantage before the flop. You should avoid situations in which you start the race as the underdog, not to mention the poor playability of your hand and your position at the table. A number of reasons to fold.

b) BB is (24/18/2.4/37/FoldBB 50)

Hero raises - You can generate fold equity against a TAG. A raise in this spot is profitable.

c) BB is (38/24/2.2/41/FoldBB 29)

Hero folds - You generate very little fold equity and run into the risk of facing a 3-bet. He might even 3-bet with a hand like 76s and you would be forced to fold the better hand before the flop. You should, in general, be tighter with your pre-flop raises against LAGs.

d) BB is (45/14/1.7/35/FoldBB 34)

Hero raises or folds - We find ourselves in another borderline situation. You can't generate much fold equity, on the other hand your opponent isn't very showdown bound, meaning you can probably get him to fold on the flop or the turn. The EV of raising is app. 0, meaning you could just as easily fold.

If you have little fold equity and/or high 3-bet risk, you should open-raise tighter, especially when it comes to hands with bad playability. This is true in particular for Q and J high cards with a bad kicker, which have horrible playability.

You should fold Q4o, Q5, J5o, J6o and T6o under these circumstances. Suited hands with Q or J high can be played if their kicker is a bit better than usual, as suitedness matters less in blind wars than it does in multiway pots.

Hands with straight potential (higher playability) should still be played according to the ORC.

Hero is SB with 75
BB is (21/13/1.9/35/FoldBB 65)

Hero raises - Now we see the opposite case. A rock is in the BB. You therefore have high fold equity and a low 3-bet risk. In this case, you can also raise hands that would be a fold according to the ORC, as the higher fold equity compensates for your hand's lower equity.

If you suspect your opponent is defending his BB too tightly, you can open-raise looser in the SB. You can raise a rock with almost any two cards from the SB. A raise with >66% fold equity is +EV, even if your hand has 0 equity. This, of course, isn't very realistic, but it shows that you can steal profitably from the SB with poor hands as long as you generate enough fold equity.

Scenario : Hero is SB with 54 (41.5% EQ vs random Hand)

a) BB is (34/25/2.3/42/FoldBB 20)

Hero folds - 54s might look nice, but it doesn't have enough equity against a random hand. You don't necessarily want to be playing this hand oop, especially when you can't generate fold equity and face a high 3-bet risk.

b) BB is (22/14/2.0/37/FoldBB 61)

Hero raises - What we said before in the example with 75o applies here. The BB is too tight and you can raise more loosely than the ORC recommends.

c) BB is (53/06/0.8/39/FoldBB 18)

Hero open-limps - This is our special case. You don't have fold equity, but you do have a hand with good playability. You have a hand with some real potential for straights and flushes, which might award you with a really big pot after the flop. Your opponent doesn't seem to raise too often, either.

You should limp and risk a cheap look at the flop, since you are getting 3:1 odds. An autobet on the flop is more promising than an open-raise. It will cost the same, but is sure to generate more fold equity. Just keep in mind that autobetting a fish isn't always the best idea. . An open-bet on the flop will cost the same as an open-raise, but, in contrast, it has fold equity. Keep in mind, though, that an auto-bet on the flop isn't always the best play against a fish. Find out more in the gold article How to Play in Unraised Pots

There's no shame in folding your hand if you get raised. A raise from the BB will give you pot odds of 3 to 1, the same pot odds that you get when defending your big blind. You would need equity of about 35% in order to call with your hand. If we assume the opponent only raises the top 10% of his hands, you would only have 32% equity. This means limp/fold is an acceptable line against certain opponents, even though it might look strange. This line occurs relatively often in 2/3 SB/BB games, since you can widen your open-limp raise due to the better odds. You are obviously in a worse situation when you get raised. Limp/fold can be a good move when a loose passive opponent suddenly wakes up.

Conclusion

The ORC is the foundation of pre-flop play. It can, however, fail to take the different opponent types into consideration; you need to be flexible and make adjustments to your steal range based on your reads. We've pointed out which reads you should pay attention to and how you can adjust your open-raising range accordingly.

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