How to Play a Busted Draw on the River
Introduction
In this article
- When you can bluff with a busted draw
- Different lines and their bluff potential
- Balancing your hand range
Despite all of the strategy behind poker, luck is always a factor. And as you very well know: you can't get lucky all the time. That's why you will sometimes end up holding a busted draw on the river.
- But how do you continue now that your draw has failed to complete?
- When can you bluff?
- When should you give up the hand?
- When do you still want to see a showdown?
This article will focus on answering these questions and address playing with a busted draw on the river.
Why should you sometimes bluff the river with a busted draw?
Isn't playing straightforward poker what you've been taught so far? Your draw didn't complete, you don't have a made hand, so why should you put any more money into the pot? The main reason for bluffing with a busted draw - balancing!
You don't want your opponents to read you like an open book on the river, which is exactly what will happen if you only bet with a strong hand and always play weak hands passively. Remember, you want your opponent to pay you off when he has a weaker hand (value bet).
The best way to keep your opponent willing to call bets on the river is to throw in an occasional bluff. This confuses your opponent and forces him to make a difficult decision. You can often bluff with a busted draw, since you have shown aggression (or at least a willingness to be in the hand) on previous streets and can represent a made hand with a bet on the river.
A busted draw obviously has little showdown value against your
opponent's hand range, so you have two real choices. 1) the
passive route, you fold and avoid the showdown entirely, and 2) the aggressive route, you try to bluff your opponent out of the hand.
You can usually generate a lot of fold equity with a river bet against some regulars and weak, straightforward players, since they are not likely to bluff on the river themselves (due to the high cost), and are not likely to think that you would do so either.
This error in his thinking opens the door for you to generate a very high amount of fold equity with a bluff bet on the river, assuming you were previously aggressive. This bluff bet would certainly be +EV.
A bluff bet on the river is usually expensive, simply because you will usually be playing for a fairly large pot. The price itself may seem someone imposing, but you shouldn't be worried about the specific cost. Your focus should be on generating sufficient fold equity and maximizing your EV.
When you are determining the bet size, keep in
mind that your bluff bets should be the same size as your value bets.
You don't want to have what opponent's could decipher as a size for bluff bets and a size for value bets, as this would obviously make you
very readable. Think about how much you would value bet on the river with various strong hands. If these hands in your range, you can represent a value bet by bluffing for the very amount you would value bet if you had such a hand.
Bluff bets are only +EV if your opponent can lay down enough hands on the river to justify the move, or if you can represent a perfect value bet in doing so, effectively balancing your entire hand range.
You should always have the following characteristics of this play in mind:
- Your bet on the river is always going to be a pure bluff.
- If your opponent calls you with a weaker hand, it was a misclick.
- You give up any showdown value your hand might have by bluffing.
Given these points, you can easily determine the EV of a river bluff bet. Simply ask whether the following is
true or false.
Cost / (Pot size+ Cost) < Fold equity generated
If yes, your bluff is +EV. Of course, your estimated fold equity depends very heavily on the opponent you are facing and whether or not your hand range includes hands you can represent with a bet.
You can see that a bluff on the river is a matter of fold equity. If you are in a multiway pot, the amount of fold equity you generate decreases with each additional player in the hand. You're simply much more likely to get called by someone.
It follows that you should play a busted draw passively when facing several opponents. Bluffs in such situations are usually very negative EV. You should only bluff when you have very good reads on both your opponents and the situation at hand.
The two requirements to bluff are: You are heads up and you can generate enough fold equity to avoid seeing the showdown.
The board is one of the most decisive factors in your decision to bluff on the river. Your opponent's calling range depends on the board texture, as does the range of hands you can represent with a bluff bet.
Always have a Plan B. Try thinking ahead. What are going to do if you don't hit your draw, but the board starts developing in a certain direction? Your draw may not complete, but another draw might. These can be very good spots for river bluffs.
Showdown value with busted draws
Just because your draw did not hit by the river
does not mean you have absolutely no showdown value. If you are heads up, your opponent might even be on a draw as well. You should tend to check behind when you are in position with a busted draw and a high card (a busted nut flush draw with A high, for example), simply because there are a number of weaker busted draws in your opponent's range.
This is especially important when you are playing for a small pot. You're much more likely to get called by a marginal hand if you bluff on the river since the pot is so small. This means you generate little fold equity and will rarely get a better hand to fold. Your best option is take your high card to the showdown - you might end up with the best hand.
The opposite is the case when you have a weak busted draw with no high card. You probably can't even beat another busted draw at the showdown. You can usually generate enough fold equity to justify a bluff in such a spot, since your opponent will have to fold any better busted draws.
Remember, the larger the pot, the lower your showdown value with a high card. When playing for a larger pot, you have to estimate your opponent's range very accurately and ask yourself if you can generate enough fold equity with a bluff.
Various lines and their bluff potential
So far, we have discussed the most important aspects regarding bluffing on the river with a busted draw. We will now take a closer look at various lines and examine whether or not they speak in favor of bluffing on the river.
The action leading up to the river is very important, as it is the only accurate source of information on the hand ranges of both you and your opponent.
This line looks like a bluff catching or drawing hand. You will rarely check/call both the flop and turn with a monster. A good opponent will know this and know that you probably don't have a very strong hand.
Of course, there are players who check/call flop,
check/call turn, and bet river with monster hands.
You, on the other hand, will not usually use this line with a monster hand, since it does not allow you to get the most value for your hand while balancing your hand range.
This is why you will rarely be able to check/raise or donk with a busted draw on the river. You simply can't represent a strong hand with your bluff.
The exception to the rule is made when another very obvious draw completes, which you can then represent with a donk or check/raise. Keep in mind, however, that this will only work against an opponent who can lay down a good hand.
You basically have the same intentions, but your opponent checks behind on the turn. There is certainly no need to bluff, but you may be able to bluff on the river with your busted draw against some opponents in such a spot.
Some players give up their hand with a check on the turn after making a standard contibet on the flop. Pay attention to the frequency with which your opponent contibets the flop and then gives up his hand with a check behind on the turn. This is a leak common to weak TAGs that you can exploit with a bluff on the river.
At the same time, better opponents will check behind on the
turn to induce bluffs and keep the pot small. You will rarely be able to generate enough fold equity on the river against such opponents, which makes bluffing -EV.
Your reaction to a check behind on the turn depends on the opponent you are facing. It may or may not be a good spot to bluff if you miss on the river.
This makes your hand pretty transparent, since you are obviously on a draw and taking a free card with your check behind on the turn (even more obvious after a semi-bluff on the flop). The only thing that keeps your opponent from knowing 100% that you are on a draw is the fact that you also check behind on the turn with made hands in order to induce bluffs and/or for pot control from time to time. Still, your check behind on a draw heavy flop tells your opponent that you don't have a strong made hand, since you would have had to bet for value and protection on the turn if you did.
This is not the best line to set up a river bluff, especially not when your hand has some showdown value. You won't be able to bluff on the river after a semi-bluff raise on the flop, since you can't represent a strong made hand after having checked behind on the turn. You wouldn't give away a free card on a draw heavy board and then bet for value on the river.
This line tends to limit your range to busted draws. Good opponents will know this and you won't be able to generate any fold equity against them with a bluff bet on the river.
You will rarely play this (exotic) line with a draw. Your opponent will also know that you can't have a very strong draw if you do, since you would have contibet the flop and then gone all-in (due to your equity) after a check/raise if you did.
You can use this line to semi-bluff against very aggressive opponents who are likely to bet the turn after you check behind on the flop. Your semi-bluff raise generates a lot of fold equity against mediocre made hands.
You won't be in bad shape if you get called, since you can follow up with another bluff on the river. This line often represents a strong made hand - the check behind was just giving your opponent a chance to improve to 2nd best.
Just remember that you have use this line with monsters, as well, if you are going to use it to semi-bluff in order to balance your hand range in such a spot.
If your opponent doesn't bet the turn, you should tend to check behind with draws that give you some showdown value (high card). You won't generate much fold equity with the line bet turn, bet river, since your opponent has indicated a weak made hand that can only be out to catch a bluff after calling on the turn.
Your decision to bet on the turn with a draw depends on how heavily you have integrated delayed continuation bets into your game.
The line bet flop, bet turn isn't strongly influenced by position. Your continued aggression represents a made hand and does not indicate that you might be on a draw in any way. You may be able to bluff on the river with a busted draw, but this depends almost entirely on the board and opponent you are facing.
With all of these lines in mind there are two concepts you should concentrate on:
The later in the round a bet is made, the more likely that it's not a bluff. You aren't in a good position to bluff on the river after having checked behind on the turn. The growing bet size means that your later actions give away more information about the strength of your hand. A check on the turn is an indication that your flop bet was just a standard contibet and that you aren't looking to build up a big pot with a big hand.
You also have to be able to represent a hand with your bluff. It's even better if you can represent several hands that can beat your opponent's.
A check/call on the flop, check/check on the turn, check/raise on the river line will not get much respect from your opponent. You simply can't represent a hand with your sudden raise. You would have bet for value on the river yourself, since that is the only way you can get value from weaker made hands your opponent would check behind with.
And now we will analyze a few examples to determine the potential of a bluff bet in various situations.
1$/2$ No-Limit Hold'em (6-handed)
Stacks & Stats
Hero $200
CO $200
BU $200
Pre-flop: Hero is UTG with 7
,6
Hero raises to $7, MP folds, CO calls, BU calls, 2 folds.
Flop: ($24) Q, 8, 5
Hero bets $20, CO calls, BU calls.
Turn: ($84) 2
Hero checks, CO checks, BU checks.
River: ($84) A
Hero ?
You hit a very strong draw on the flop and contibet with the intention of going broke if necessary. Both opponents call your bet and you decide to continue playing your hand according to odds and outs on the turn. Oddly enough, both opponents check behind. Now it's time to put each opponent on a hand range.
You usually won't have to worry about the BU too much, since he will usually have made an overcall with a draw on the flop and have taken a free card on the turn. If he had a made hand, he would have had to bet for protection on the turn. But he didn't, which indicates he is probably on a drawing hand.
The CO, on the other hand, may very well have a made hand. It could either be quite strong or quite weak. The smooth call on the flop could mean both.
He will either have called with a set hoping the BU would raise the flop or overcall, or have a hand like JJ or QT and called thinking that will put him ahead often enough.
He will have then checked the turn hoping this would induce a bet from the BU (and maybe further action from you) and allow him to check/raise with a monster, or for pot control (and ignoring protection), since he may not be sure that his hand is still good after the BU's overcall.
This isn't a bad spot to represent the A on the river with a bluff, since the player you are afraid of is in the dreaded 'sandwich.' The CO will have to keep in mind that you are betting into two opponents and that the BU could continue the action behind him. In other words, the price he has to pay to call isn't necessarily going to get him to the showdown.
Your line speaks both for and against bluffing with a busted draw. You've basically indicated that you don't have a great hand by checking on the turn instead of betting for value and/or protection.
The EV of bluffing depends on your opponent - it could be + or - EV. You can generate enough fold equity by representing the A if the CO is worried about what the BU might do behind him (even though he also checked behind on the turn). A bluff is obviously -EV against a passive calling station who will call with any Q.
1$/2$ No-Limit Hold'em (6-handed)
Stacks & Stats
Hero $200
BB $200
Pre-flop: Hero is MP with A, T
UTG folds, Hero raises to $7, 3 folds, BB calls.
Flop: ($15) J, 5, 2
BB checks, Hero bets $12, BB calls.
Turn: ($39) K
BB checks, Hero bets $28, BB calls.
River: ($95) K
BB checks, Hero?
You contibet with the nut flush draw + overcard on the flop. You don't necessarily want to take a free card on the turn; you have good chances at getting pocket pairs to fold to a 2nd barrel and can represent the K with your bet. You also picked up a gutshot, which gives you quite a few outs in total. This is a good spot to check behind and avoid running into a check/raise on the turn. Still, you don't think your opponent will check/raise the turn all too often, so you bet.
After your opponent calls on the turn you have to ask yourself if you can make enough better hands fold to a bluff.
You should note the following points:
- You hold a busted draw with some showdown value.
- Your opponent could be holding a busted flush draw as well.
- The river card is not the best card for you to bluff on. The change in board texture, the second king, makes it less likely that you hold the third. That's one less hand you can represent with a bet.
After taking all this into consideration, you must conclude that this is not a good spot to bluff. You will rarely generate much fold equity against better hands. It wouldn't make much sense for your opponent to have called you on the turn with a hand like 99 or TT, only to fold to the second K on the river.
1$/2$ No-Limit Hold'em (6-handed)
Stacks & Stats
Hero $200
SB $200
Pre-flop: Hero is Big Blind with T, 8
4 folds, SB raises to $7, Hero calls.
Flop: ($14) Q, 7, 5
SB checks, Hero checks.
Turn: ($14) 5
SB checks, Hero checks.
River: ($14) J
SB checks, Hero
In this battle for the blinds you play your drawing hand very passively. Your opponent does so as well, even though he has the initiative. You check behind on the flop and are ready to give up your hand, since you don't know how to respond to this sudden change in your opponent's play.
You pick up a flush draw on the turn and check behind hoping to complete with a high heart on the river. Unfortunately this doesn't happen, but your opponent shows no interest in taking the pot whatsoever. This is where you ask yourself if you're in a good spot for a bluff.
Remember, you are in a battle for the blinds and your opponent is playing a very strange line. You are going to have to tailor your play to your opponent. If he is a tricky kind of guy who makes snap river calls with pocket pairs or A high, bluffing won't be your best option.
The board texture and previous action let on that your opponent is on a weak hand (Ax, Kx) and was ready to give up on the turn (if not before). The J is a good card for you, since it fits into your hand range and is enough to make A and K high hands fold. Your busted draw doesn't have any showdown value, so bluffing is the only way you can win the pot.
1$/$2 No-Limit Hold'em (6-handed)
Stacks & Stats
Hero $200
BU $200, good LAG
Pre-flop: Hero is Big Blind with K, Q
3 folds, BU raises to $7, SB folds, Hero calls.
Flop: ($15) J, 4, T
Hero checks, BU bets $10, Hero calls.
Turn: ($35) 3
Hero checks, BU bets $25, Hero calls.
River: ($85) 7
Hero ?
You play your OESD + overcards passively on both the flop and the turn. Your call on the turn may seem like a very marginal decision, but it shows how you can plan ahead with a hand.
You are playing against a good LAG who is very likely to bet again on the turn with any pair. There are two different reasons why you can call:
- You have enough outs for a hand that will let you (at least) check/call on the river.
- Your opponent is good enough to fold a very strong hand (Two pair, sets) to a bluff if another diamond turns up on the river.
You call on the turn with the intention of bluffing on any diamond river card, since you know your turn line looks like a flush draw. The truth is you're on a busted OESD, but your opponent can't know that.
Due to the action, the development of the board texture and the strength of your hand on the turn, you can very well call if you are willing to bluff if a diamond turns up on the river. This is your Plan B; you wouldn't make that turn call without it.
Conclusion
This article has shown that you don't always have to take the passive route and give up your busted draw on the river. Bluffing with busted draws is even a good way of balancing your overall range in certain spots.
When you are considering a bluff with a busted draw, remember the following points:
- The number of opponents should be as small as possible.
- How has the board developed?
- What line have you played up to the river?
- Can you generate enough fold equity?
- Can you represent a hand you would be value betting?
- Does your busted draw have any showdown value?
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