Bet Sizes

Foreword and introduction

This no limit article deals with the issue of bet sizes, that is, the amount of money you bet on the pot. It is not about whether to bet or not, but how much to bet. Since you are free to choose your bet size in no limit Hold'em, many beginners find it difficult to pick the correct and optimal bet size. Choosing the optimal bet size has a great impact on your winrate. A bet that is too big or too small can cost a lot of money.

It is not always easy to find the optimal bet size since multiple factors play an important role. This article should give you a basic understanding of why to pick a particular bet size in specific situations. This article will give you the basic requirements for picking the optimal bet size.

Odds for the opposition

Basic knowledge for a no limit player should include knowing what odds you give your opponent when you bet a certain percentage of the pot. This is important when you're playing against split draws so that you can prevent them from calling profitably. Here is a small table:

The expected value

Before I reveal the factors for choosing bet size, I want to give an example. It should show that it is not how often the opposition calls or how large the bet is that matters, rather it is only the expected value that is important.

Assume we are on the river and are sure that we have the best hand. Our opponent checks to us. The pot is $100 and we both have $200 remaining.

To keep this simple, let's pick from 3 different bet sizes.

• $10. Assume he will call a $10 Bet in 95% of all cases.
• $75. Assume he will call a $75 Bet in 40% of all cases.
• $200. Assume he will call a $200 Bet in 10% of all cases.

Thus, the expected values follow:

1. 0.95 x $10 = $9.5
2. 0.4 x $75 = $30
3. 0.1 x $200 = $20

These numbers are arbitrary. The example is just supposed to show that when finding the optimal bet size, only the expected value counts. For this reason, mini-bets are usually suboptimal, even if the opposition will almost always call them.

In case b) we win the most on average, that is, $30. We should therefore bet this amount.
Factors for choosing a bet size
There are multiple factors that determine the optimal bet size, and each is differently weighted.

• The board
• The number of opponents
• The type of opponents

The board

The arrangement of the board is an important factor for choosing a bet size.
In general, you should bet more on draw-heavy boards than on boards where few draws are possible.
Let's look at two examples. We are the pre-flop aggressor in both cases.

a) Board: 8, 9, T Pot size: $50, our hand: A, T

The board is very draw-heavy. The opposition will often have either a flush or straight draw. Therefore, it would be better to choose a larger bet size to get enough protection on these draws. A bet of $40-50, or 4/5 pot size, seems appropriate. This will give our opponent the wrong odds for almost every draw.

b) Board: K, 8, 2 Pot size: $50, our hand: A, K

In contrast to the last one, this board is very dry, meaning that draws are hardly possible. Therefore, we don't need to bet as much since our opponent has at most 5 outs if we are ahead, which will usually be the case. In that case he would be the underdog by about 1 to 10. Still, we shouldn't just bet $5. For one because he would have implied odds if he hit and also because want value. We must assume that we are ahead and consider how we can win the most. Lucky for us, our opponent doesn't know that we've hit anything. We should bet around $25 (½ pot) or a little more. We would play this way if we didn't have anything, so our opponent can call with worse hands since he suspects a bluff or just thinks that his hand is ahead.

The number of opponents

Another important factor for choosing bet size is the number of opponents.

In general, your bet size will increase with the number of opponents.

This is very logical since as the number of opponents increases, so does the probability that some of them hold draws. On top of this is the following effect:

Board: K, 8, 2 Pot size: $50, our hand: Q, K

Assume we are first to act against 3 opponents. We probably have the best hand. We should bet close to pot size, since it is probable that at least one of our opponents has a flush draw and if our bet is called, the player behind him will automatically get better odds. So if, for example, we bet just $30, which would be enough to protect against a flush draw, and player A calls, then player B gets odds of 30 to 110, which would probably be enough to profit from calling with a flush draw.

The opponent types

As usual in poker, it is important to know what kind of opponent you are playing against when making decisions about bet size. Choosing a bet size is all about maximizing the expected value. Against poor players, there are multiple possibilities for doing this. Two examples will illustrate the importance of reads on the opponents.

NL $100

UTG ($102.64)
Hero ($96.90)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A, Q

UTG calls, 2 folds, Hero raises to $4.00, 1 folds, UTG calls $4.00.

Flop: ($9.00) 7, 6, T (2 players)
Hero bets 8, UTG calls $8.

Turn: ($25.00) 5 (2 players)

Hero checks, UTG checks.

River: ($25.00) 8 (2 players)
Hero ???

a) In previous hands we noticed the following: our opponent is a poor player who has difficulty parting with his hands. Furthermore, he often suspects a bluff on overbets and tends to call these. Therefore, we should overbet on the river if not go all-in, since this will maximize the expected value.

b) We know that our opponent is a good TAG. In this case, we should not overbet the pot on the river since he will rarely call it unless he has a flush himself, although this is not likely. To get him to call with a straight or other worse hand, we should bet around $15-20 to maximize the expected value.

Closing words:

In closing, it must be said that reads play a large roll in choosing bet size, as the examples have shown. Therefore, there is no recipe for choosing the optimal bet size. In time, you will get a feeling for the proper bet size in a given situation.