Short Stack Strategy: How to React to Flop Raises and Donk Bets

Introduction

In this article

• How to react when an opponent raises your contibet.
  
• How to react to donk bets.
  
• Assumptions to make when playing unknowns.
  

You will often face an all-in decision on the flop without having a good made hand. Do you call or do you fold? It's not only a close call, but also a matter of value and definitely worth taking a closer look at.

Another situation you will often encounter: the donk bet. This article will show you how to react to donk bets based on equity.

Having accurate information on your opponent is imperative to making the right decision. You should have stats and reads available. If not, you will have to make general decisions and won't be able to tailor your play to a specific opponent.

This article was written for advanced players familiar with statistics, odds and outs, and pot odds. We will also address estimating hand ranges and their use. However, beginners will also find useful information on playing against unknowns.

Basics

You need to know exactly what is meant when we speak of equity and fold equity before you can look at concrete situations. We will start by clarifying these two terms.

Take a look at a few examples of what equity is and what it means for the game.

Hero: A K
Villain: 2 2

Flop: Q, T, T

The Equilator gives you the following values:

Hero: ~ 50%
Villian: ~50%

This means 50% of the pot belongs to Hero if he goes all-in. Villain would also win 50% of the time. You use the same principle when estimating an opponent's hand range, only you enter his range instead of his hand.

We purposefully chose an example hand in which Hero has quite a few outs (and high equity accordingly). We will be taking several looks at this example hand in this article.

Fold equity becomes very important when we address donk bets. However, it plays a lesser role than equity when it comes to all-ins, since you will usually have to call the all-in.

Once again we will look at our example hand from above:

Hero: A K
Villain: 2 2

Flop: Q, T, T

Assume you are first to act and make a contibet; your opponent folds. Usually only half of the pot belongs to you (based on equity), but you win the entire pot when your opponent folds.

How do you determine fold equity? Assume your opponent folds half of the time and calls the other half. We will assume we are facing an all-in situation to keep things simple.

The resulting EV is as follows:

FE= Fold equity in %
Pot= Pot size after the flop
Total Pot= Pot after the all-in

EV = FE * Pot + (100% - FE) * [Equity * Total Pot - Costs]

in our example:

EV = 50% * 8 + 50% * (0,50364 * 40 - 16)
EV = 6,07 BB

You will win 6.07 BBs on average. It is clearly better for you when your opponent folds than when he calls, despite your very high equity.

What to do when an opponent raises your contibet

This is probably the situation you will encounter most often. You're playing heads up and make a contibet, which your opponent raises. This will generally be an all-in or fold for you, but which? When can you call/push, when should you fold?

This decision isn't so difficult once you know how to put your opponent on a hand range and understand the concepts of equity and pot odds. You call/push when you have the right odds/enough equity and fold when you don't.

NL1000

Stacks & Stats
Hero: $200
Villain: $1000

Pre-flop: Hero is SB with T, T
8 folds, Hero raises to $40, BB calls $30

Flop: J, 2, J (80$)
Hero bets $40, Villain raises to $200, Hero???

A situation you will often encounter. You have a pocket pair and see an overcard on the flop. The Beginner's Strategy tells you to fold. If, however, your opponent is not an unknown, you will have to do some math before you can know if folding is, in fact, the right decision.

You figure your opponent is semi-loose, meaning he calls too often and raises too seldom before the flop. He might try trapping with AQ, even though that isn't a real trap.

You give him a pushing range of roughly: 99-55, 22, AQ, AJs, KJs, QJs, AJo, KJo, and QJo.

This is a plausible range that could fit the opponent, although ranges naturally differ from player to player. The question is, what do you do now?

• 1. Determine the pot odds:

  Remember: the pot odds are derived by creating a ratio between the amount of money already in the pot and the amount you would have to invest to stay in the hand.

  80 + 40 + 40 + 120 = 280(Pot) : 120 (remaining stack) = 2.33:1

  You would therefore need approx. 30% equity to stay in the hand.

• 2. Determine your equity against your opponent's hand range:

  Plug the information into the Equilator and you will get the following results:

  Hero: 53.4 %
  Villain: 46.6 %
  

  You see that 53.4 % of the pot belongs to you.

Folding in this situation would therefore be a big waste of money.

Another every day situation: You have AK and are left standing unimproved on the flop.

NL1000

Stacks & Stats
Hero: $180
Villain (BB): $1000

Pre-flop: Hero is SB with A, K
All folds, Hero raises to $40, BB calls

Flop:
a) J, 7, 2
b) J, 7, 2
c) J, Q, 2

Hero bets $40, BB raises to $1000, Hero ???

The first thing you do is determine the pot odds: 1:2.6, or 27.7%. Then you give your opponent a hand range. To keep things simple we will assume he has a pocket pair and his range is 99-44.

What is your equity?

Flop A) ~ 24 %
Flop B) ~ 28 %
Flop C) ~ 42 %

Flop B is particularly interesting, as you would have a borderline call or fold decision to make. You have an easy fold in Flop A, whereas you would call in flops B and C. We are purposefully leaving rake out of the equation to keep the math from getting too complicated. Rake simply reduces the pot and, thereby, the pot odds.

Calling with two overcards is a borderline decision. Backdoor draws often make the difference. Overcards without a backdoor draw are almost always a fold when playing with a normal size stack.

Flop C can result in an interesting and often underestimated situation:

If you change the board and turn the two into a second jack, your equity suddenly rises to app. 50%. The queen and turn card (assuming it is a high card) give you a few additional outs. These are referred to as "hidden" outs. An Ace high can turn into a winning hand when the board pairs up twice.

If you've been reading attentitvely so far you will have noticed that we have been using exact hand ranges in the examples. Unfortunately you can't do this in real life; however, it should be possible to estimate your opponent's hand range. Try to estimate possible hand ranges as accurately as possible.

Another aspect we haven't mentioned yet is the possibility that your opponent will bluff on a fitting board. It may be a pure bluff of a semi-bluff. Either way, it's something everybody does.

This obviously has to be a part of your calculations. You've already accounted for semi-bluffs, but will still have to take pure bluffs into account (you are still way ahead with overcards or a pair against a pure bluff). But more to that later.

Opponents' bluffs

Every opponent has his own way of bluffing and semi-bluffing. A tight opponent will rarely bluff, whereas looser and more aggressive opponents will certainly do so often.

If you can figure out when your opponent bluffs you'll be in a dream come true. You can play according to hand ranges without running into any big problems. If not, you will have to use average values.

In general you can assume that an opponent will bluff 10% of the time. Tight opponents, and those who have you under observation, will bluff less. You can give aggressive opponents the full 10% and, with the right read, even more.

To take bluff frequency into account you simply determine your average winnings against bluffs (you will usually be ahead 3:1) and put it into the formula.

EV = FE * Pot + (100% - FE + Bluffs) * [Equity * Total Pot - Costs] + Bluff * [Equity * Total Pot - Costs]

Your call range is reduced by the same amount you believe to be your opponent's bluff frequency. ***

You can include bluffs in the formula. Furthermore, bluffs often give you the equity needed to make a profitable call.

How to react to donk bets

So far we have only looked at situations in which you make a contibet and face an all-in decision. Things change somewhat when your opponent bets into you.

Fold equity, which was not important in the previous cases when facing an all-in raise, is now very important. Estimating your opponent's range is also much more difficult.

NL1000

Stacks & Stats
Hero: $200
Villain: $1000

Pre-flop: Hero is BB mit A, K
8 folds, SB calls $5, Hero raises to $40, SB Calls $30

Flop: T, 3, 2
SB bets $60, Hero???

This is obviously a situation you don't like to be in and that forces you to make a difficult decision. The first thing you do is try to determine your opponent's donk bet range:

Give him 30% for face cards (which you're way ahead of with AK), 10% for a monster hand (which you can only beat with a backdoor draw) and 60% for a pocket pair. His resulting range is: 22-TT, AQs-AJs, AQo-AJo, JTo and T9o.

You have 42.7% equity with AK against this range.

Now the question is: What would you win by going all-in? Your opponent is sure to fold any unimproved hand and call with any other.

Your opponent folds 33.6% of his betting range and calls with 66.4% of his betting range.

You have 26.3% equity against this calling range. You can calculate your EV with the formula found above:

EV = 0.336% * $140 + 0.664% * (0.263 * 400 - 160)
EV = 0.336% * $140 + 0.664% * (-$54.80)
EV = $10.65

In this case pushing would right. However, it is important to pay close attention and observe your opponent, since you can only roughly estimate his range and a reduction in bluff frequency only leads to a poorer result for you in return.***

How to play against unknowns

Now we come to the most difficult situation: playing against unknowns. You will often not have stats available. How do you solve this problem?

The real problem, and it is a big one, is estimating your opponent's hand range.

It is very difficult to exactly determine an opponent's hand range, since every player has his own game. Each opponent will have a his own range for calling before the flop and his own style of playing after the flop. One thing you can try is creating a profile of an average opponent for a certain limit.

To do so, simply look at the known players and identify their ranges and their play. Use these same ranges when facing unknowns to make better decisions. Stay on the safe side and assume your opponents are relatively tight, especially when it comes to donk bets.

You can react more loosely than when following the beginner's strategy, but should play even tighter when facing unknowns.

One of the greatest difficulties you will have is identifying an opponent's game, since there are so many possiblities before and after the flop.***

You can also start categorizing opponents once you've seen a few of their hands. Are they tight or loose? How often do they bet?

Conclusion

In this article you have learned how to react to an opponent's reraise and to a donkey bet. We also discussed equity and its meaning in poker, as well as fold equity and its role when facing a donk bet.

You should now be able to make the right decision against an opponent on the flop and know whether you should fold or go all-in.

Spend some time going through possible scenarios on the Equilator to get a feel for things - the calculations are not easy. This will help you make the right decision at the table in time.

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