Isolating a Calling Station (3) - River Value Bets
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Isolating a Calling Station (3) -
River Value Bets
by MiiWiin
Once you have made it to the river against a loose passive player, the main question you have to ask yourself is of course: Do you or don't you have the best hand? Is the hand still so good that you will get paid off by many weaker hands?
River value bets
On the river it is particularly important to make thin value bets. Especially calling stations don't like to fold a made hand. On top of that, the pot on the river is, in relative terms, bigger than on the previous streets, which means that the smart placement of a value bet will bring you a lot of money (while the pot on the flop is usually still rather small).
It's clear which options you have. In position you can choose between thin value bets and the free showdown.
Out of Position however, there are a few additional aspects that you have to keep in mind.
Play out of Position
Out of position you have several options, depending on whether you see yourself ahead or not.
If you see yourself behind, you could bluff by betting or check/raising. However, you should be cautious when it comes to these plays. Let's look at the principle behind the 3rd barrel.
Your main concern is value maximisation. In order to extract value, you have four options:
- Value bet
- Block bet
- Check/call
- Check/raise
The value bet should be your preferred method against such opponents. You notice that these players love to call and will often enough receive enough pay out from weaker hands here. Keep in mind the motto "bet, bet, bet".
If you decided to value bet, the bet size is important. Should you make a large bet here or rather a small one? Although your hand reading skills come into play here, it is almost impossible to put such players on a limited range of hands. The showdown often reveals curiosities.
However, you should still stick to the rule of going for big bets against opponents who love to call. A regularly "big" bet size usually amounts to around 2/3 of the pot size.
A block bet is a very small bet. It has several advantages: On the one hand you will still extract some value from very weak hands, on the other hand you are indirectly playing for pot control, since it is not an easy choice to check/call a marginal hand on the river, especially not against such opponents. You can't know if Mr Fish is suddenly starting to bluff.
This plays a particular role in the event that a draw or over-cards arrive. These can not only reduce your hand strength, but also keep Villain from calling with an even weaker hand.
Since the block bet is rather small (around 1/4 to 1/3 of the pot size would be conceivable here), your hand should not be too strong for it. Just because a draw has been completed, this does not mean that your opponent can have a lot of weaker hands that he would be willing to call a large bet with.
The aggression-related stats are decisive here. The opponent has to play passively so that it would not be an easy choice for you to play check/call. On top of that you need to rule out that Villain sees the puropse behind your bet and suddenly starts bluff raising.
For the same reason, a block bet often doesn't make much sense against good thinking players.
As a contrast to the block bet, you would have the option to check/call. However, this play will only be profitable against very few players of this kind.
You need to be able to make good estimations here. Will the opponent be more inclined to start a bluff or make very light value bets instead of finding a loose call? This is usually not the case for calling stations. That's why you should be very careful when it comes to check/calling. If you can't value bet against a passive opponent, check/call would even be the preferred option.
Naturally you always have the option of check/raising, but if you can't even check/call, it will be even more difficult to check/raise. You will too often see check behinds and therefore miss out on a profitable value bet.
As already illustrated in the previous column, you should be extremely careful regarding multi-barrel bluffs. The phrase "don't bluff the fish" should always be in the back of your head there.
However, this rule is too general. It can in fact make sense to play these players very aggressively and to fire two barrels and even to fire a third barrel on the river!
You have to keep in mind a few things: These players call a lot of crap hands preflop and hope they will hit on the river. Even the worst crap hand can hit two pair on the flop, the expectations of such players are generally not very high.
With this range Villain will hit the flop fairly often - at least that's what he thinks. No matter if a bottom pair, a gut shot, even a back door flush will often lead to a call - after all, he will have implied odds if he hits.
On top of that, it's usually cheap to see the flop here - however, the price goes up on the turn. Villain will look at his hands more carefully and most players will be able to fold their bottom pair / under pair / middle pair without kicker / gut shots etc.
Finally, you get to the river! You have to keep in mind now: Villain has many weaker hands that he simply can no longer call. He will have to give up every possible drawing hand, and almost all middle/bottom pairs will fold to a hard river bet.
Such players are easily impressed by bet sizes. Preflop you have to pay 1BB to see the flop, 4BB if someone has raised. Players can easily call this, it's cheap, barely costs anything. However, the bet can be 30-40BB big on the river - that will impress them!
While thinking players have a game plan most of the time and you can therefore say "if he calls the turn, he will also call the river...", this simply isn't true for this type of player! This doesn't mean you should fire three barrels every time...but it should make you think.
Examples
Finally, let's have a look at a couple of examples:
PartyPoker $100 NL Hold'em (6-handed)
Stacks & Stats
UTG ($100)
MP ($100)
CO ($100) (35/8/0.5/31/30/20) (VPIP/PFR/AF/WTS/Fold-to-Cbet FLOP/FtCbet TURN)
BU ($100)
Hero ($100)
BB ($100)
Preflop: Hero is SB with K
J
2 folds, CO calls $1.00, 1 fold, Hero raises to $6.00, 1 fold, CO calls $6.00
Flop: ($13.50) 4 5
J (2 players)
Hero bets $9.00, CO calls $9.00
Turn: ($31.50) 6
(2 players)
Hero bets $21.00, CO calls $21.00
River: ($73.50) 7 (2 players)
Hero ???
Disgusting river. Every draw has not only been completed, your opponent will also often enough have called down such draws.
Here the problem that makes check/call useless is surfacing. This player will too rarely bluff here...what should he bluff? If you check, you have to play check/fold. The alternative option would be a block bet! You could bet $20, Villain will call this with QJ/Jx/TT-99, but never raise anything weaker.
PartyPoker $100 NL Hold'em (6-handed)
Stacks & Stats
UTG ($100)
MP ($100)
CO ($100) (35/8/0.5/31/30/20) (VPIP/PFR/AF/WTS/Fold-to-Cbet FLOP/FtCbet TURN)
BU ($100)
Hero ($100)
BB ($100)
Preflop: Hero is SB with K J
2 folds, CO calls $1.00, 1 fold, Hero raises to $6.00, 1 fold, CO calls $6.00
Flop: ($13.50) 4 5 J (2 players)
Hero bets $9.00, CO calls $9.00
Turn: ($31.50) 6 (2 players)
Hero bets $21.00, CO calls $21.00
River: ($73.50) J (2 players)
Hero ???
A good river for you, you have to see yourself ahead here. Against an aggressive thinking player a check might be a good option, firstly all draws busted here and secondly your opponent might get the impression that the jack scares you. A check/raise is worth thinking about.
But not against a calling station! He will check behind a very high number of hands here, but still give you some value if you bet. That's why a value bet is a must here!
PartyPoker $100 NL Hold'em (6-handed)
Stacks & Stats
UTG ($100)
MP ($100)
CO ($100) (35/8/0.5/31/30/20) (VPIP/PFR/AF/WTS/Fold-to-Cbet FLOP/FtCbet TURN)
BU ($100)
Hero ($100)
BB ($100)
Preflop: Hero is SB with K J
2 folds, CO calls $1.00, 1 fold, Hero raises to $6.00, 1 fold, CO calls $6.00
Flop: ($13.50) 4 5 J (2 players)
Hero bets $9.00, CO calls $9.00
Turn: ($31.50) 6 (2 players)
Hero bets $21.00, CO calls $21.00
River: ($73.50) A (2 players)
Hero ???
This time, a typical scare card appears: the ace. Not necessarily for you, your opponent won't have Ax here that often. However, he might not call down Jx/TT hands as often as it would take to make a large bet profitable here.
If you make a large bet here, Villain can still fold hands that are weaker and only call better hands. If you check however, Villain will bluff rather rarely and definitely not make any thin value bets.
A small bet would also be appropriate here, similar to the one in Example 2!
PartyPoker $100 NL Hold'em (6-handed)
Stacks & Stats
UTG ($100)
MP ($100)
CO ($100) (35/8/0.5/31/30/20) (VPIP/PFR/AF/WTS/Fold-to-Cbet FLOP/FtCbet TURN)
Hero ($100)
SB ($100)
BB ($100)
Preflop: Hero is BU with Q T
2 folds, CO calls $1.00, Hero raises to $5.00, 2 folds, CO calls $5.00
Flop: ($11.50) 4 5 T (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $8.00, CO calls $8.00
Turn: ($27.50) K (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $22.00, CO calls $22.00
River: ($71.50) 6 (2 players)
CO checks, Hero ???
This is the one card you didn't want to see. How many weaker cards can Villain still call now? One of the objectives of your turn bet was to take a free showdown. Considering this river, you really should take it.
PartyPoker $100 NL Hold'em (6-handed)
Stacks & Stats
UTG ($100)
MP ($100)
CO ($100) (35/8/0.5/31/30/20) (VPIP/PFR/AF/WTS/Fold-to-Cbet FLOP/FtCbet TURN)
Hero ($100)
SB ($100)
BB ($100)
Preflop: Hero is BU with Q T
2 folds, CO calls $1.00, Hero raises to $5.00, 2 folds, CO calls $5.00
Flop: ($11.50) 4 5 T (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $8.00, CO calls $8.00
Turn: ($27.50) K (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $22.00, CO calls $22.00
River: ($71.50) 5 (2 players)
CO checks, Hero ???
A small value bet should be enough, but do make sure to make it.
PartyPoker $100 NL Hold'em (6-handed)
Stacks & Stats
UTG ($100)
MP ($100)
CO ($100) (35/8/0.5/31/30/20) (VPIP/PFR/AF/WTS/Fold-to-Cbet FLOP/FtCbet TURN)
Hero ($100)
SB ($100)
BB ($100)
Preflop: Hero is BU with Q T
2 folds, CO calls $1.00, Hero raises to $5.00, 2 folds, CO calls $5.00
Flop: ($11.50) 4 5 T (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $8.00, CO calls $8.00
Turn: ($27.50) K (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $22.00, CO calls $22.00
River: ($71.50) A (2 players)
CO checks, Hero ???
Again you are facing the unpleasant situation of an over-card. As already analysed above, the main problem now is no longer that you are definitely behind, but also the question which hand you can really expect to call now. The probability that only stronger hands will call and weaker hands will fold is simply too big. If you can make this assumption, it is difficult to classify the bet as "for value". In such spots you should also take a free showdown.
| » SUMMARY |
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On the river you can still extract much value against such players. The relative size of bets on the river are bigger than on any other street, there is a lot of value in that. However, pay attention to how the board develops and also to scare cards, which can not only mess up your hand, but also keep Villain from calling another value bet of yours. When out of position, ask yourself if a block bet might make sense and if the board and the opponents are suited for this. However, don't rely on aggressive behaviour of such opponents, a check/call usually means that you will pay off the better hand. If you see any spot for a small value bet, use it. Vary your bet sizes and experiment a little, and in time you will get a feel for how much certain opponents are still willing to invest on the river. |
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