Isolating a Calling Station (2) - Flop and Turn
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Isolating a Calling Station (2) – Flop and Turn
by MiiWiin
After the previous article analysed preflop play against loose passive opponents, the focus of this article will be on flop and turn play.
Postflop, the pots grow big, you have to adapt to your opponents and carefully consider whether or not bluffs (semi-bluffs) are profitable or if you can make thin value bets. These factors will affect your win rate in the long run.
Flop and turn? Strong together
There is a good reason why we deal with the flop and the turn in one go. Especially when you are up against loose passive opponents, who don't like to fold an acceptable hand, you have to put a lot of thought into your overall play.
A play that many players tend to make, but which is profitable (too) rarely, looks as follows:
PartyPoker $100 NL Hold'em (6-handed)
Stacks & Stats
UTG ($100)
MP ($100)
CO ($100) (35/8/0.5/31/30/20) (VPIP/PFR/AF/WTS/Fold-to-Cbet FLOP/FtCbet TURN)
BU ($100)
Hero ($100)
BB ($100)
Preflop: Hero is SB with X, X
2 folds, CO calls $1.00, 1 fold, Hero raises to $6.00, 1 fold, CO calls $6.00
Flop: ($13.50) 5
, 5
, 3
(2 players)
Hero bets $9.00, CO calls $9.00
Turn: ($31.50) 8 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $12.00, Hero folds
There are a lot of things to analyse in this example. Let's start with the preflop range.
You simply have to expect such a postflop spot fairly often and you can imagine how you don't really want to be out of position on the flop with just any crap hand. That's why a careful selection of your preflop range is important.
The next aspect is the line continuation bet flop - check/fold turn. Unfortunately, exactly this play does not make much sense against calling stations. Forcing these players out of the pot preflop is not easy, and even motivating statements such as "oh well, at least he is folding in 30% of cases..." are not enough in most cases.
If you wait until the turn to look at the "Fold to CBet Turn" stat, you already made a mistake. If you make this continuation bet as a bluff bet, it will simply not be successful often enough (according to the stats), to be running "+EV".
The most common mistake however is that many players don't pay any attention to such stats (or only rely on the HUD and don't check how these players react to multiple barrels when against other regulars).
What's the solution here? You have to figure out whether a continuation bet makes sense at all. If you think your opponent won't fold anything to a simple barrel on the flop, it's clear which alternatives you have:
- don't contibet at all
- fire at least two barrels
If the term "multiple barrels" comes up, you should be aware of the fact that especially such players are not really the perfect victims for this. Phrases like "don't bluff the fish" immediately pop up in the back of your head.
This is generally true, but you have to pick an alternative. Of course you can't always check/fold when you haven't hit the board. It's also not possible to be overly aggressiv every time, hoping to get even such a player off his middle pair.
And this is where it gets interesting, this is where your preflop play comes into play. You are in this spot now because you got yourself into this spot with your preflop play. You really have to make sure that you don't lose your general edge against such players by playing too many crap hands and losing so much through unreasonable plays that you are only playing break-even in the end.
Therefore, it's always important to study how your opponents act postflop and select your hands accordingly preflop.
The board: outs?
Apart from the opponent and the position, it is of course also extremely important to see what the board has to offer you. You have to ask yourself similar questions as already discussed in the articles on continuation bets.
However, you also have to keep in mind here: It is not easy to carefully analyse whether or not flop XYZ can be bet profitably. You also have to ask yourself if and what you have hit if you have outs, if you can 2nd barrel this opponent in order to force him out of the pot or if can still get paid off if you hit.
Hands that only rely on fold equity are not worth much against such opponents. If you therefore don't think you can get your opponents out of the pot with multiple barrels, you should not fire them.
Turn play
You can lose a lot of money on the turn, mistakes are very costly - however, every well-considered value bet promises a lot of profit. Here are some basic ideas when it comes to playing against such players:
Thin value bets:
Since you know that such opponents like to call down with marginal hands, you should also make thin value bets with hands such as weak top pair hands or middle pairs. You will often get unbelievable calls.
Bet/fold for free showdown:
The line bet/fold for free showdown is fantastic, but you do have to consider how often your opponent likes to call. It's already enough if any kind of draw is possible. Don't think that Villain will simply fold a gutshot on the turn. The more draws are possible, the weaker the hand can be which you want to value bet.
Free cards with draws:
If you nearly have zero fold equity, it is hardly reasonable to play a draw on the turn aggressively, especially if you are on position. If you only have a draw and therefore can't bet for value, you should use your option of a free card. On the river, you will still be able to extract enough value if you hit.
Also keep in mind that you don't have to balance your lines against such opponents (the opponent won't notice that you only check your draws, but bet for value with made hands. Other regulars won't know any more either, since they are aware of the fact that your game against calling stations is different than that against normal opponents).
Pot control/Protection:
While t is good to also play for pot control every now and then when you are up against aggressive opponents and have a rather marginal hand, this is not necessary against these opponents. Since there could be an incredible number of drawing hands out there, protection is simply essential here, while you can take pot control off the agenda.
Another advantage of pot control is that you can induce bluffs (check behind turn, call river), but since calling stations don't tend to make bluffs, you should rather not try to.
Don't be scared of a (check/)Raise:
The argument I don't want to get check/raised does not apply to loose passive players. If you have a bet for value and protection, you should make it. This is on the one hand important in order to protect (see above: pot control and bluff induce don't make much sense), on the other hand you don't have to worry about light raises or even bluff raises.
Raises usually mean the nuts:
The common view is that a raise from such a player usually means a strong hand. Here you have to evaluate where you stand with your hand. It only gets tough if you have a good hand yourself (TPTK+). Beware of the fallacy that such players will now start to check/raise draws against you. You will find yourself more often in valuetown than it should be the case vice versa.
Bet/bet/bet:
If there is one sentence that you should memorise, then this one: Keep betting against such players (if you have a made hand) until you encounter resistance.
PartyPoker $100 NL Hold'em (6-handed)
Stacks & Stats
UTG ($100)
MP ($100)
CO ($100) (35/8/0.5/31/30/20) (VPIP/PFR/AF/WTS/Fold-to-Cbet FLOP/FtCbet TURN))
BU ($100)
Hero ($100)
BB ($100)
Preflop: Hero is SB with K, J
2 folds, CO calls $1.00, 1 fold, Hero raises to $6.00, 1 fold, CO calls $6.00
Flop: ($13.50) 4, 5, J (2 players)
Hero bets $9.00, CO calls $9.00
Turn: ($31.50) 6 (2 players)
Hero bets $21.00, CO raises to $45.00, Hero folds
One example of the evaluation of a raise from such an opponent. You would have to make ridiculous assumptions to still see yourself ahead here. Does such a player raise QJ here? Does he raise 77? Does he raise a flush draw?
Every player is different, but this prototype doesn't usually have such hands in his raising range. Every now and then he might over-play hands, however these would more likely be hands such as AJ or over-pairs. The rest of his range will usually mainly consist of two pairs, sets and straights here.
PartyPoker $100 NL Hold'em (6-handed)
Stacks & Stats
UTG ($100)
MP ($100)
CO ($100) (35/8/0.5/31/30/20) (VPIP/PFR/AF/WTS/Fold-to-Cbet FLOP/FtCbet TURN))
Hero ($100)
SB ($100)
BB ($100)
Preflop: Hero is BU with Q, T
2 folds, CO calls $1.00, Hero raises to $5.00, 2 folds, CO calls $5.00
Flop: ($11.50) 4, 5, T (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $8.00, CO calls $8.00
Turn: ($27.50) K (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $22.00
Check behind turn? Why? You have hit a decent top pair on the flop, you opponent will rather rarely have a king in his range. If you print out a list of possible (weaker) drawing hands with which this opponent will be willing to call another bet on the turn, you could probably wallpaper your living room with that list. This is a clear value and protection bet.
The river card determines if this is already for free showdown, but you will be likely to be at least offered the option.
And keep in mind: Even a player who is not very experienced will not call QJo, A8 or 67 anymore on the river.
PartyPoker $100 NL Hold'em (6-handed)
Stacks & Stats
UTG ($100)
MP ($100)
CO ($100) (35/8/0.5/31/30/20) (VPIP/PFR/AF/WTS/Fold-to-Cbet FLOP/FtCbet TURN))
Hero ($100)
SB ($100)
BB ($100)
Preflop: Hero is BU with 5, 6
2 folds, CO calls $1.00, Hero raises to $5.00, 2 folds, CO calls $5.00
Flop: ($11.50) 3, 4, J (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $8.00, CO calls $8.00
Turn: ($27.50) 9 (2 players)
CO checks, Hero checks
You can make thin value bets here, but limit your semi-bluffs. You obviously don't have a value bet here. If you can also create fold equity with the 9 here is highly unlikely. Therefore, when you are in spots where you can't expect to create much fold equity, refrain from making the 2nd barrel and simply take the free card.
| » SUMMARY |
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The most important things you should remember are probably "Bet, bet, bet" and "Don't bluff the fish". Make thin value bets, but don't overdo it when it comes to semi-bluffs. Study your opponent, examine closely how he reacts to flop and turn bets and if it is consequently sensible to contibet or to 2nd barrel the flop, or if it's better not to bet at all. Afterwards, adapt your preflop play based on this analysis and don't maneuver yourself into spots too often in which you have no chance postflop ("…he won't fold anything anyway..."), as you already know these things preflop. |
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