Bet Turn for Free Showdown (2) - With the Initiative

» COLUMN

In the first part of this series, you were introduced to some basic concepts behind the bet for free showdown. You learned that there are basically two situations that can get you into such a spot: Actively, when you have the initiative or passively, without the initiative.

Today you will be given some relevant examples of spots, in which you have the initiative on the turn.

What has happened so far

Whenever you analyse topics that deal with later streets, you first need to ask the question: "How did I get there in the first place?".

If you have the initiative on the turn, the most likely case is that you are the preflop aggressor. However, various scenarios are possible here:

• You are the PFA, contibet on the flop and could fire a 2nd barrel now.
• You are the PFA, checked behind on the flop and could make the first bet now.
• You are not the PFA, but bet on the flop after your opponent only checked.

As you might notice, the last item on the list is not so clear-cut.  It's easier to talk about initiative than to really define it, theoretically you always have the initiative when your opponent checks (quite apparently, he didn't want to use his in this case).

That's why this column will only focus on those spots in which you were the preflop aggressor.

The opponent types

The following three opponent types will be in the spotlight:

• Calling station
• "Regular" TAG
• Rock

We will not include the very loose aggressive players in our analysis, since their characteristics can vary considerably. The looser and the more aggressive your opponent, the more inclined you should be to play for bluff induce.

Calling station

PartyPoker $25 NL Hold'em (6-handed)

Stacks & Stats
UTG ($25)
MP ($25)
CO ($25) (40/10/1.0/32/50/45/0) (VPIP/PFR/AF/WTS/ftCbetFlop/ftCbetTurn/c-rTurn)
Hero ($25)
SB ($25)
BB ($25)

Preflop: Hero is BU with A , 9
2 folds, CO calls 0.25$, Hero raises $1.25, 2 folds, CO calls $1.25

Flop: ($2.85) 4, 5, 9 (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $2.00, CO calls

Turn: ($6.85) J (2 players)
CO checks, Hero...

This spot is a perfect situation to bet for free showdown.

The opponent is ideal for this. He calls down many hands, his VPIP suggests that he could have a very wide range and he will rarely check/raise (which however wouldn't speak against a bet either).

You will be ahead in a lot of cases. If you bet, it is very likely that one-card flush draws, 77, 88, 67, 98, 9x and possibly even over-cards will call you.

PartyPoker $25 NL Hold'em (6-handed)

Stacks & Stats
UTG ($25)
MP ($25)
CO ($25) (40/10/1.0/32/50/45/0) (VPIP/PFR/AF/WTS/ftCbetFlop/ftCbetTurn/c-rTurn)
Hero ($25)
SB ($25)
BB ($25)

Preflop: Hero is BU with A , 9
2 folds, CO calls 0.25$, Hero raises $1.25, 2 folds, CO calls $1.25

Flop: ($2.85) 4, 5, 9 (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $2.00, CO calls

Turn: ($6.85) J (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $5.00, CO calls $5.00

River: ($16.85) K (2 players)
CO checks, Hero...

Time to deal with some showdown theory. Will you be ahead often enough to make a profitable check behind here? You already have to give this some thought on the turn. If you now come to the conclusion that you will not be ahead in most spots here, it wasn't a bet for free showdown on the turn to begin with.

This is a marginal spot, you might even argue in favour of a thin value bet. However, a check behind should probably be your first choice.

PartyPoker $25 NL Hold'em (6-handed)

Stacks & Stats
UTG ($25)
MP ($25)
CO ($25) (40/10/1.0/32/50/45/0) (VPIP/PFR/AF/WTS/ftCbetFlop/ftCbetTurn/c-rTurn)
Hero ($25)
SB ($25)
BB ($25)

Preflop: Hero is BU with 7 , 7
2 folds, CO calls 0.25$, Hero raises $1.25, 2 folds, CO calls $1.25

Flop: ($2.85) 9, 9, Q (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $2.00, CO calls

Turn: ($6.85) A (2 players)
CO checks, Hero...

This spot is considerably thinner. Weaker made hands are pretty unlikely, you can't really expect hands such as 66- to call down here. The main hands left to consider are flush draws as well as the open-ended straight draw with JT. Also it should be clear that Villain will often not directly fold Ax hands on the flop.

Even though the spot is thin, you might consider a bet here. Villain simply has such a wide range that you will still be ahead too often with your 77. And it wouldn't be the first time in history to see possible hands such as KJ, KT, T8 find another call.

On most rivers, you would then have to check behind. If you check behind on the turn, you would usually have to fold the river against this player.

Regular TAG

PartyPoker $25 NL Hold'em (6-handed)

Stacks & Stats
UTG ($25)
MP ($25)
CO ($25)
Hero ($25)
SB ($25)
BB ($25) (20/17/2.8/25/59/40/8) (VPIP/PFR/AF/WTS/ftCbetFlop/ftCbetTurn/c-rTurn)

Preflop: Hero is BU with 7 , 8
3 folds, Hero raises $1.00, 1 fold, BB calls $1.00

Flop: ($2.10) J, 8, 6 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $1.50, BB calls

Turn: ($5.10) 2 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero...

A clear value bet again!

What could Villain have here? Jx would pretty much be the worst case. You would have noticed sets and two pairs (unlikely) on the flop. He check/calls the flop; this could be a weak made hand or a draw. Also possible are hands such as 77 (as well as 99) and many flush draws, straight draws and combo draws.

The big blind may be rather aggressive, but you shouldn't check behind your 2nd pair since this might put you into a difficult situation on the river. Remember: If your opponent folds some over-cards or A-high hands, it is okay for you.

PartyPoker $25 NL Hold'em (6-handed)

Stacks & Stats
UTG ($25)
MP ($25)
CO ($25)
Hero ($25)
SB ($25)
BB ($25) (20/17/2.8/25/59/40/8) (VPIP/PFR/AF/WTS/ftCbetFlop/ftCbetTurn/c-rTurn)

Preflop: Hero is BU with 7 , 8
3 folds, Hero raises $1.00, 1 fold, BB calls $1.00

Flop: ($2.10) J, J, 7 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $1.50, BB calls

Turn: ($5.10) Q (2 players)
BB checks, Hero...

In this spot, the situation is no longer very clear. The problem is: There are barely any draws possible (besides unlikely back door draws).

You can pretty much rule out that this opponent called a hand such as 98 on the flop out of position. You will not see him make loose calls on the flop OOP that often, since he usually doesn't get the option to bluff during the hand (exception: river bluff bet).

Your opponent most likely has a made hand here. Pocket pairs between 22 and TT (pocket tens could, but don't have to 3-bet preflop) are possible hands here.

On top of that, he could have over-cards (AQ,KQ) or A-high hands (ATs), every now and then better 7x hands (97s+, A7 etc.).

So far, so good, but what conclusion do we draw from this? Against which hands can you value bet? Protection against hands such as AT or Ax would not make sense, since protection is only a result of value betting. However, you can rule out that such a hand will call down, seeing itself ahead here. Many things speak in favour of a check behind here, since there are hardly any hands that (this) Villain would call again.

PartyPoker $25 NL Hold'em (6-handed)

Stacks & Stats
UTG ($25)
MP ($25)
CO ($25)
Hero ($25)
SB ($25)
BB ($25) (20/17/2.8/25/59/40/8) (VPIP/PFR/AF/WTS/ftCbetFlop/ftCbetTurn/c-rTurn)

Preflop: Hero is BU with 7 , 8
3 folds, Hero raises $1.00, 1 fold, BB calls $1.00

Flop: ($2.10) J, J, 7 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $1.50, BB calls

Turn: ($5.10) Q (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks

River: ($5.10) 5 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero...

Will you be ahead often enough on the showdown? On average, you most likely will. The check behind on the turn makes Villain's range a little wider, so that smaller pocket pairs may very well be in his range.

Of course, Villain will often have better hands than that. The only problem is that you can only get few better hands to fold. 88-TT are those hands that would have a tough decision, but you don't even know if these hands would fold at all. If you only expect small fold equity against them, a bluff would not make much sense either.

Rock

PartyPoker $25 NL Hold'em (6-handed)

Stacks & Stats
UTG ($25)
MP ($25)
CO ($25)
Hero ($25)
SB ($25)
BB ($25) (12/9/1.5/22/70/55/0) (VPIP/PFR/AF/WTS/ftCbetFlop/ftCbetTurn/c-rTurn)

Preflop: Hero is BU with 7 , 7
3 folds, Hero raises $1.00, 1 fold, BB calls $1.00

Flop: ($2.10) 5, 6, 4 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $1.50, BB calls

Turn: ($5.10) A (2 players)
BB checks, Hero...

At first sight, this seems to be a good spot for a bet for free showdown. If you were still playing against the opponent from Example 1, you could definitely make a nice value bet without any complications here. But can you also do that against Mr Tight?

Your opponent plays few hands, he is not particularly aggressive and he has a low went to showdown stat. Such players are usually not calling stations. That's why you need to ask: Against which hands do you have a value bet here? Which weaker hand would this player call out of position?

You can never rule out that such players trap on the flop. They won't necessarily play a flopped flush or straight aggressively, with a set or a two pair they will sometimes even be worried about being behind and draw to their full house.

Medium pocket pairs (88+) are possible, but won't be helpful to you. A hand such as 33 is more than unlikely. In the best scenario, he has a one-card flush draw on the flop, however this would be A-high or K-high most of the time. The turn is not really to our liking.

In a nutshell: You cannot find a value bet here, but should rather consider a bluff bet in order to force 88+ out of the pot. However, Villain could very well have a lot of better hands with which he got stuck in check/call mode - that's why it would not hurt if you decide to give up in this spot.

PartyPoker $25 NL Hold'em (6-handed)

Stacks & Stats
UTG ($25)
MP ($25)
CO ($25)
Hero ($25)
SB ($25)
BB ($25) (12/9/1.5/22/70/55/0) (VPIP/PFR/AF/WTS/ftCbetFlop/ftCbetTurn/c-rTurn)

Preflop: Hero is BU with K , Q
3 folds, Hero raises $1.00, 1 fold, BB calls $1.00

Flop: ($2.10) A, Q, 2 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $1.50, BB calls

Turn: ($5.10) A (2 players)
BB checks, Hero...

The line of argument is a different one here, but the result is the same.

Of course you can never bluff here, but your hand is definitely strong and as opposed to Example 7, it is likely that your hand still fares pretty. Here's the problem: Which weaker hand calls on the turn?

On this 2-suited board, you should not automatically assume that these flush draws make up a huge part of his range and that the opponent will easily call them down. This assumption would be a mistake that you shouldn't make too often.

After Villain's check/call on the flop, flush draws will certainly still be in his range - but how many of them? The player has stats of 12/9, which indicates his cold-calling range is extremely small in the blinds. You can rule out that he has the range 45, 56, 67 there for instance. If he called all of these hands, how did he get his low VPIP?

Every now and then, he will have a combination from this range, maybe 67. But you already have to ask the next question: Does he call this hand out of position or would he just check/fold it?

You could object that it wouldn't really bother you too much if a good draw finds a fold here. However, betting against a single hand while a lot of other, better hands might be out there, does not make any sense.

What could Villain have on the flop?

67, AQ-AT, KQ-QT, TT-88

Equity analysis
Board
	Equity	Win	Split	Loss	Hand
Player 1	59.724%	53.912%	11.624%	34.463%
Player 2	40.276%	34.463%	11.624%	53.912%	88-TT, AQs-ATs, KQs, QTs+, AQo-ATo, KQo, QTo+,

What will Villain call? We assume he will call down with QJs and QTs hands at best. (This) Villain will not call down just any Qx hand out of position, since he does not want to end up on the river totally clueless again, while being out of position with 2nd pair (with two pair to be precise) / bad kicker.

Equity analysis
Board
	Equity	Win	Split	Loss	Hand
Player 1	22.879%	12.424%	20.909%	66.667%
Player 2	77.121%	66.667%	20.909%	12.424%	AQs-ATs, KQs, QTs+, AQo-ATo, KQo

As you see, you should not really be inclined to bet the turn since you are in a way ahead - way behind situation against most of these hands. You will rarely be successfuly in trying to extract value from QJ- over three streets. As Villain has few draws in his range and it is unlikely that he would call them at all, a bet for free showdown would make little sense.

LINKS
Related articles: Bet Turn for Free Showdown (1) - General Ideas Discussion forum: Discuss this column in the forum