Fold Equity (1) - General

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Fold Equity (1) - General

by MiiWiin

Fold equity is an important part of poker, regardless of the variant. In this column, we cover precisely what it means, why it's so important and how you can calculate it with reasonable accuracy.

Definition

Unlike equity, which is based on your strength in the current hand compared to the opposing range, fold equity is the proportion of hands from Villain's range which he will fold to a bet or raise on your part.

Meaning

Thus, fold equity doesn't necessarily mean that you're aiming to make better hands fold, in other words, bluff. With a pure bluff, fold equity is of course incredibly important in that it's the only chance to win the pot.

However, there are also numerous other options. You can also achieve fold equity if you're holding the nuts. Although it goes without saying that you'd prefer it in this case if your fold equity was smaller.

So equity is an extremely important part of No Limit Hold’em because on average, 22-27% of played hands go to the showdown. This means that almost three out of four hands end up without a showdown. The winner in this case is the person who last placed a bet or a raise.

So it's definitely worth considering if you're the one showing this aggression often enough.

Fold equity is always good

You shouldn't forget that it's generally advantageous to generate fold equity. Not only for just anybody to pocket the three out of four pots mentioned above - you should be the one.

In No Limit Hold’em there are three main reasons to bet:

• Value
• Bluff
• Collect dead money

Precisely the point of collecting dead money is often overlooked. These marginal spots where you find it hard to assess where you stand won't only be more easily playable through a bet on your part, they're also EV+ thanks to the fold equity.

If you force your opponent to fold, he'll also be forced to fold outs and equity. Very occasionally you'll have 100% equity, so it's never disadvantageous to bet a bit more loose and to force weaker hands out of the pot. 

Especially when the intransparent alternative is a c/? or a check/fold.

Options

As previously mentioned, you generate fold equity with every bet; whether you want to or not. Below are the most common cases you'll be confronted with:

PartyPoker $25 NL Hold'em (6-handed)

Stacks & Stats
UTG ($25)
MP ($25)
CO ($25)
Hero ($25)
SB ($25) TAG
BB ($25)

Preflop: Hero is BU with
3 folds, Hero raises $0.75, SB calls $0.75, 1 fold

Flop: ($1.75) (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $1.20, SB folds

This is a standard spot in which the sole concern is fold equity. You steal from the button preflop with a suited connector, you totally miss the flop.

However, the flop calls for a bluff because you know that your opponent can't check/call a lot of hands out of position here.

This is the reason to (bluff) bet here, as you assume the fold equity to be high.

The reason for this is fourfold:

• Heads-up pot
• The opponent will be able to let hands go
• The board reduces his check/call range
• You play in position

It would be very difficult in the following case:

PartyPoker $25 NL Hold'em (6-handed)

Stacks & Stats
UTG ($25)
MP ($25)
CO ($25)
BU ($25)
Hero ($25)
BB ($25) Callingstation

Preflop: Hero is SB with
4 folds, Hero raises $0.75, BB calls $0.75

Flop: ($1.75) (2 players)
Hero...?

You can see that even in a heads-up pot, an A-high pot has to be interpreted very differently, depending on the conditions.

Of the advantages just mentioned in example 1, only the heads-up pot remains.

You don't have position anymore, your opponent won't want to fold hands and the board certainly offers a wide range which Villain can call here.

With rough estimates alone, you can say in all probability that the fold equity in example 1 is a lot higher than in example 2.

You don't need stats or to make assumptions about ranges for that.

The semi-bluff survives on fold equity. Without fold equity, a semi-bluff can't hold out long-term. For example, if you succeed in bringing in a very strong draw as a close favourite, it won't be a semi-bluff anymore but a value play.

However, this is rarely the case.

You'll normally be holding an 8 or 9 outer (open ended straight draw or flush draw), possibly with a small addition (bottom pair, over card, gutshot etc.).

Your equity against your opponent's range won't be enough for a value bet. That's why you try to bluff and profit from two factors:

• Fold equity: Villain folds, you win
• Your equity: Villain calls, you might hit on the following streets

PartyPoker $25 NL Hold'em (6-handed)

Stacks & Stats
UTG ($25)
MP ($25)
CO ($25)
BU ($25)
Hero ($25)
BB ($25) calling station

Preflop: Hero is SB with
4 folds, Hero raises $0.75, BB calls $0.75

Flop: ($1.75) (2 players)
Hero...

Unlike in example 2, not a lot has changed. The board isn't A-high anymore, but there are still plenty of draws so your fold equity won't be massive.

However, in this instance it's not such a disaster anymore, because as you can see, you've got a few outs on your side. Put simply: even if Villain calls on the flop, there's no need to panic. Quite the opposite, if you hit on the turn, you can extract value even more easily.

It's not about a bit of equity. Quick example: your opponent is holding A9 in both spots and hits top pair both times on a draw heavy board:

From example 2:

Equity analysis
Board
	Equity	Win	Split	Loss	Hand
Player 1	5.2%	2.93%	4.55%	92.53%
Player 2	94.8%	92.53%	4.55%	2.93%

From example 3:

Equity analysis
Board
	Equity	Win	Split	Loss	Hand
Player 1	55.56%	55.56%	0%	44.44%
Player 2	44.44%	44.44%	0%	55.56%

The difference is so big that in the case of this solid hand, a bet wouldn't even really be a semi-bluff because, as already described above, it would almost pass as a value bet.

In practice this won't work as you'll never be betting against a hand but against a range.

Equity analysis
Board
	Equity	Win	Split	Loss	Hand
Player 1	46.25%	46.19%	0.11%	53.7%
Player 2	53.75%	53.7%	0.11%	46.19%	66+, 44, AQs+, A9s, KQs, T9s, 98s, AKo, A9o, KQo, T9o

Nonetheless, you can see the big advantages of fold equity:

• If your semi-bluff works and your opponent folds, he gives up about 54% equity on the pot. A very good result.
• However, if your bluff doesn't work, you play on with 46% equity. It's not the end of the world, especially under the assumption that you'll make fewer mistakes on the relevant turns and river than your opponent will

You're gradually coming to a point where things start getting close. The basic premise 'he who bets wins regularly' applies here. In a lot of spots, you simply can't tell if you can bet for value or as a bluff.

You're only aim is to collect the pot. At this point, fold equity becomes a decisive criterion.

This dilemma can be perfectly demonstrated with a hand:

PartyPoker $25 NL Hold'em (6-handed)

Stacks & Stats
UTG ($25)
MP ($25)
CO ($25)
Hero ($25)
SB ($25) TAG
BB ($25) TAG

Preflop: Hero is BU with
3 folds, Hero raises $0.75, SB calls $0.75, BB calls $0.75

Flop: ($2.25) (3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero...

Now you're at the flop and you're not nearly so thrilled. Swearing won't help, nor will shaking your head or moaning, you'll have to do something.

First dilemma:

• Do you have a value bet? Very unlikely.
• Do you have a bluff bet? Probably not, except against strangely played QQ/JJ hands.
• Should you bet? Yes.

In this spot, who bets first, often wins the pot. However, this won't happen if one or more players have hit hard. However, this won't be the case very often.

Second dilemma:

• What does a check do?
• What do you do with a turn bet?
• What do you do with a turn stack?

Two facts:

• There's not a lot you can get in this hand.
• It's good if you win the pot on the flop.

If you have doubts in these spots because you should basically turn a great preflop hand into a bluff even though a better hand can hardly fold, it's alright for now.

Because this means that you can easily assess if you should bet for value or whether you can/ should bluff. However, in these spots you need to disregard these two reasons.

The following things can be said about your flop hand:

• Your made hand is weak.
• You'll rarely get to the showdown with this.
• You'll hardly be able to call your opponent's bets on the turn.

What would you do in the following spot?

PartyPoker $25 NL Hold'em (6-handed)

Stacks & Stats
UTG ($25)
MP ($25)
CO ($25)
Hero ($25)
SB ($25) TAG
BB ($25) TAG

Preflop: Hero is BU with
3 folds, Hero raises $0.75, SB calls $0.75, BB calls $0.75

Flop: ($2.25) (3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero...

Suddenly it's become a great spot to bluff again. In position, perfect board, two opponents who could fold. You bet and will frequently win the hand.

What about example 4? There's often a lot of faffing around here, then a check on the flop, somebody bets something on the turn and ultimately, pocket tens are too weak to consider way ahead - way behind.

You fold your hand under the motto, you didn't want to turn TT into a bluff. That is a mistake.

So always consider the following: if you don't have a value bet or a bluff bet, then consider whether you shouldn't simply bet with the intention of taking down the pot.

Imagine your opponent is holding 88 and 76s here. You'd still have eight outs and and it's good if these fold. You can live with that. It would be ideal if these hands call, but you can't assume this will be the case. 

A check to induce a bluff is also conceivable as an alternative, however here the rule applies again: you're playing against a range not a hand. You can bluff catch against 88, but not against a range of additional sets, Ax, Kx etc.

As previously stated, you even create fold equity where you don't want to. There's no need for another example for this. If you bet a set, you generally don't want to see a fold.

However, here too the rule applies that if your opponent folds, he'll also frequently give up part of his pot equity. If you're holding a set, your opponent can still be holding over pairs (2 outs) or draws (3-X outs). If you have 90% equity and you win 100% of the pot, you'd have to be happy too.

You can scarcely influence whether your opponent makes a mistake or not, but you should give him the opportunity to. That's why you need to see fold equity as a basic method. Your opponent won't fold every time if you bluff and always call when you bet for value.

LINKS
Related articles: Fold Equity (2) - Contibet Fold Equity (3) - Turn and River