Appreciating Variance and Dealing with Volatility
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Appreciating Variance and Dealing with Volatility
by Jonathan “Faarcyde” Faarup
In 2010, I had been playing poker for five years. I thought I had seen everything, from my own experience and the experience of others. I went on a six-month breakeven/downswing streak that was the most brutal I ever had to endure. Everything that could happen did happen, and for the first three months I weathered it. As time wore on, I became more and more unstable with my reactions which likely led to an even more extreme stretch of losing.
Much of this was based on the fundamental fact that poker players perform better when feeding on success rather than failure and I was no exception. This seems to hold true in many other real-life examples – it’s easier to make a three-pointer when you have just made a three-pointer. It is easier to ask someone out on a date when the last person you asked said “yes.” Confidence is an underappreciated skill.
The downside is if you only have confidence when you are winning you lose a tremendous skill when losing. Being able to push through extended periods of “failure” with steadfast confidence will make it so those streaks are as short as possible.
Bad luck, variance or ...?
One thing I refuse to do now is use “bad luck” as a first line of defense. Blaming poor results on variance is not a good habit to hold. By using objective analysis (looking over hand histories, running calculations, talking to colleagues and friends, posting hands in the forum), we can determine if our play is on the up and up. If it turns out we are getting coolered, running into the top of peoples’ ranges and suffering from poor card distribution…great. If not, we can change our modus operandi and bridge the gaps necessary.
Get a group of poker players at any given time and it is a rule that the word “variance” will invariably enter into the conversation. It often seems as if the term possesses a negative connotation, a bad rap, something players would cast into the depths of the netherworlds if at all possible. Your author is not without guilt either. Often times, I have lamented how I wished every day was a small win. I don’t need the big wins that made my head big or the big losses that sent me into a spiraling depression, however temporary.
One of the things I have learned over the past few months is coming to grips with the fact luck will always be ever present. Once I learned to accept this notion, it became a lot easier to deal with. Why? Because getting upset at something I knew was going to happen is absurd and irrational. Imagine waking up and observing the sun has risen. It has happened every day since you were born. Do you ever get angry when the sun rises? So why is variance any different?
It stares us in the face every moment we play, yet we still throw mice, break keyboards, yell profanities and give sweeping proclamations that “This is it. I am never playing poker again.” Someone once said insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result. If we want to play poker for a living or play it as a profitable hobby, we need to change the way we think.
Laziness breeds laziness
What has worked for me over the years is setting a schedule and sticking to it instead of playing whenever I felt like it (more on this later). Structure will allow you to set and keep goals over the long term. I know many of you will say “I became a poker pro so I could have certain freedoms.” This is an immensely positive characteristic of playing poker for a living. There is a substantial problem with this though: inertia. Merriam Webster defines inertia as “a property of matter by which it remains at rest or in uniform motion in the same straight line unless acted upon by some external force.” Laziness breeds laziness, and the way to avoid this is by formulating routines. Humans are creatures of habit, and if we can create good playing habits we are making a no-lose investment in ourselves.
If some of this sounds a bit familiar, you may have read Jared Tendler’s “The Mental Game of Poker.” It is a mandatory read for anyone who is serious about their game; I don’t agree with every sentence in the book, but it gave me a lot of perspective. It is interesting how little we know about our mental state when it comes to poker. It is sort of like therapy. You think you are a pretty well-adjusted person until you realize what a suppressed mess your brain actually has become!
To deal with this Charlotte’s Web of a problem, the book confronts irrationality, tilt and most importantly (to this author, anyway) acceptance. I’ve been working with Jared one-on-one, and my biggest “light bulb” moment is realizing there is a root cause for everything. Our degree of acceptance or lack thereof lends itself to irrationality – the irrational thought that our poker lives would be for the better if variance didn’t exist.
The more skilled you are...
If variance didn’t exist, there would be no poker. Variance allows for others to believe they have a better shot then they actually do. And maybe they do, in the short run. A pro football team can play a high school football team 100 times and win 100 times. A pro poker player can play a fish 100 times and only win 60. The other 40 is the variance tax we pay to the poker gods.
So is it as simple as accepting our fate and moving on? Sticking our head in the sand? No. If anything, it should be a motivator, a blessing. Variance is a reason to work on your game and to stay ahead of the learning curve. This is because a fundamental and mathematical truth about anything (and especially poker) is the better you get at it, the less variance you will endure. The more skilled you are relative to your opponents, the less variance there is to keep you up at night. It is the reflexive nature of this crazy game we play.
Other tips for dealing with variance/volatility:
- Refer to other players’ results you respect to get an idea of what type of breakeven/downswings can occur. Try to honestly diagnose if you are going through a brutal stretch of negative variance or if your game has regressed.
- Never play when you are feeling extremely tired, exasperated or angry. Even playing your C-game demands a clear head.
- Take short breaks every couple hours to refocus your energy. Think about what gave you your best results in school…was it cramming for the test the night before or studying for half an hour every day a week before? Too often, professionals (including myself), will take an extended period of time off to “clear our head” or “refuel” but often times it is an excuse to avoid the problem by not playing.
- Remain active outside of poker. Balance and moderation is the key to a successful anything. If you have never exercised before, go for a walk twice a week and move forward from there. If you have never eaten healthy, make one meal a week for yourself and then make two, then three…
- Keep accurate records, mark hands and develop a schedule for playing. If you treat poker like a job, chances are you will achieve consistent rewards, monetary or otherwise.
| LINKS | |
Why do you still tilt? (by Jared Tendler)