News: When NOT to bluff with a strong draw

We have an open ended straight flush draw, that's an auto bet, right? Well, like many things in poker...it depends.

In the self study series Barry Carter shows you how he tried to solve a poker problem then consults a coach or solver to get feedback on his method.

I have recently been taking a deep dive into bluffing theory and one of the big takeaways is that we should (sometimes) hold back on bluffing with our highest equity draws.

For example, this is the GTO betting range for a 40BB BTN, when checked to, on a 9♥6♥2♦ flop. This is from GTO Wizard.

The best draws here are suited Ax, and 8♥7♥, as well as other combo draws like T♥7♥. All of them bet some of the time, but most of the time the suited Ax and 8♥7♥ checks back.

I've previously written about why we hold back the nut flush draw, to preserve our pair outs, but I was surprised at 8♥7♥, which is just 8 high. I would have assumed it was always a good result to bet this and get a fold.

Evidently not. The suited Ax have around 70% equity here, and 8♥7♥ has 65% equity. In terms of equity realisation, it's actually a terrible result to get a fold with these hands. Even if that means we brick and end the hand with 8 high.

I was curious to see if we hold this hand back as a bluff when our opponent plays less than perfectly. So I node locked to see what happens when they overcalled by a small degree. This is what we do in the same spot:

Knowing we get called more, we bet more, even when we are clearly going to be behind (right now) with our 8♥7♥. We have so much equity, we just want to get chips in the middle. We also overbet, so we clearly don't mind the few times we brick with this hand.

I did the same thing, but assuming the BB folded a little more than they should:

This is an interesting subtle difference. We increase our betting frequency with 8♥7♥, but we favour the small bet size - even though we overbet more with the rest of the range. Knowing our opponent will fold often means our hand is more profitable, but we bet small because we still prefer a call.

Finally, what happens when the BB check/raises more than GTO?

This is very interesting. 8♥7♥ gets held back more often.

I think this points to why we increased our betting frequency in the two previous node locks. We like it if our opponent overfolds or overcalls, and bet more accordingly. But the common denominator is they don't raise much. The decision to bet more, therefore, is based on the fact we are not being raised. We hate to fold such a strong draw, so we hold it back.

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