Overcards in 3-Bet Pots (2) - General Observations

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In the first part you learned a bit about your equity with overcards in 3-bet pots. In the next part you can investigate a few plays.

However, you still need to consider a lot of general observations first. You've already seen that situations like this are everything other than normal. That's why all the factors need to be considered carefully, in order to analyse the problem as precisely as possible and be able to identify the advantages and disadvantages of possible plays.

Necessary observations

Although we could delve a lot deeper into the material, we've started by ticking off the basic conditions in part one i.e. hand strength, opponents and board. Here, we'll deal with other things:

• Balancing
• Semi-bluff
• Additional outs
• (Good) turn cards
• Your position
• Multiway pots
• Playing against calling stations

Balancing

Why is balancing such a decisive factor in these types of spot?

Balancing can be extended to deception here, you don't want to be readable and you shouldn't be. You should play as uniformly as possible in different spots with different hand strengths, so as not to give away a single bit of information to your opponent.

There are several points which need to be considered simultaneously for this in a 3-bet pot:

Just take a look again at the first example from part one:

PartyPoker $25 NL Hold'em (6-handed)

Stacks & Stats
UTG ($25)
MP ($25)
CO ($25)
BU ($25) (21 / 15 / 2.5 / 59 / 10) (VPIP / PFR / AF / ft3-bet / 4-bet)
Hero ($25)
BB ($25)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A , K
3 folds, BU raises $1.00, Hero raises to $3.50, 1 fold, BU calls $3.50

Flop: ($7.25) 4, 4, 7 (2 players)
Hero checks, BU bets $4.00, Hero folds

Mathematically speaking you can see here that you can't just get out of the hand cheaply and check/fold. Your equity in this spot is more than passable (when you consider you've basically hit nothing).

But what would a check/fold mean?

Your opponent will notice this. He'll see that you can give up hands postflop quite easily. This will encourage him to call against you more frequently when he's in position preflop.

The option call 3-bet, move postflop won't cause him any worry. He sees it as +EV and will try to use it against you.

This doesn't mean that you should barrel around wildly in 3-bet pots, however you need to accept that simple check/folds, even though they make be quite acceptable in a vacuum, can make you vulnerable to opponents' aggression when considered as part of your entire game.

The same applies to the line bet flop, check/fold turn. Experienced floaters may find the perfect victim here.

It goes without saying that it's important to know how your opponent will act on a flop like this.

• Will he take your contibet seriously?
• Can he peel then fold on the turn?
• Does he like to float?
• What will he bet on the flop if you check?

This question can rarely be answered with sufficient precision. However, there clearly needs to be a basic idea.

Next it's about integrating this into your game: how do you play 56s on this flop? How do you play an overpair? How do you play A4s or even 77?

You need to tell your opponent a believable story and that's difficult on a lot of flops. What does a contibet on a flop like this show? Strength or weakness?

Important: a check as a preflop aggressor in a 3-bet pot doesn't automatically mean check/fold. It will simply make you too vulnerable.

Semi-bluff

The connection between the definition semi-bluff and overcards is always there, however it's a dangerous one.

The problem with the situation is estimating the outs, the implied odds or even the reverse implied odds.

Are your overvard outs clean? How should you play them, bearing in mind what they're worth?

PartyPoker $25 NL Hold'em (6-handed)

Stacks & Stats
UTG ($25)
MP ($25)
CO ($25)
BU ($25) (21 / 15 / 2.5 / 59 / 10) (VPIP / PFR / AF / ft3-bet / 4-bet)
Hero ($25)
BB ($25)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A , K
3 folds, BU raises $1.00, Hero raises to $3.50, 1 fold, BU calls $3.50

Flop: ($7.25) 4, 8, J (2 players)

On a flop like this the question is how far will a semi-bluff go? Do you have six clean outs? It's difficult to say.

Do you have implied odds? Assuming your opponent is holding AQ, could you extract more value on the turn and the river? But what if your opponent has AJ or KJ? Then a top pair on the turn would be a catastrophe for you, as the stack will migrate to the middle of the table. In this case you need to be concerned about reverse implied odds.

Overcard outs should always be enjoyed with caution, as they are obvious to all participants. So never bet your implied odds too highly.

If your opponent is holding something like 99 in the example above, you'll have six clean outs. However, if the turn is an ace or a king, do you think Villain will still go broke? Every overcard will scare him and if they don't, it's a small step to reverse implied odds.

Even if your equity is acceptable, it's a semi-bluff with dangerous outs. However, there are lots of spots where you can get extra help:

Additional outs

Overcards often have additional outs. These are generally just considered in the background, even though they're unbelievably important. In part one you've already seen that you have nearly 40% equity with two overcards.

Still, there's more help:

• Backdoor flush draws
• Flush draws
• Backdoor straight draws
• Straight draws

These elements will change your hand strength enormously. Consider by looking at these three examples (always with a  21/15 player).

Starting example:

PartyPoker $25 NL Hold'em (6-handed)

Stacks & Stats
UTG ($25)
MP ($25)
CO ($25)
BU ($25) (21 / 15 / 2.5 / 59 / 10) (VPIP / PFR / AF / ft3-bet / 4-bet)
Hero ($25)
BB ($25)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A , K
3 folds, BU raises $1.00, Hero raises to $3.50, 1 fold, BU calls $3.50

Flop: ($7.25) 9, 7, 5 (2 players)

Equity analysis
Board	9 7 5
	Equity	Win	Split	Loss	Hand
Player 1	61.97%	54.96%	14.02%	31.02%	77+, AJs+, KQs, 87s, 76s, 65s, AQo+
Player 2	38.03%	31.02%	14.02%	54.96%	A K

Now there's a backdoor straight draw as well if the 7 becomes 4, i.e. a combination of 3 and 2 would give you a straight:

PartyPoker $25 NL Hold'em (6-handed)

Stacks & Stats
UTG ($25)
MP ($25)
CO ($25)
BU ($25) (21 / 15 / 2.5 / 59 / 10) (VPIP / PFR / AF / ft3-bet / 4-bet)
Hero ($25)
BB ($25)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A , K
3 folds, BU raises $1.00, Hero raises to $3.50, 1 fold, BU calls $3.50

Flop: ($7.25) 9, 5, 4 (2 players)

Equity analysis
Board	9 5 4
	Equity	Win	Split	Loss	Hand
Player 1	57.66%	51.46%	12.41%	36.14%	77+, AJs+, KQs, 87s, 76s, 65s, AQo+
Player 2	42.34%	36.14%	12.41%	51.46%	A K

Now if the 9 becomes 9, you get another backdoor flush draw:

PartyPoker $25 NL Hold'em (6-handed)

Stacks & Stats
UTG ($25)
MP ($25)
CO ($25)
BU ($25) (21 / 15 / 2.5 / 59 / 10) (VPIP / PFR / AF / ft3-bet / 4-bet)
Hero ($25)
BB ($25)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A , K
3 folds, BU raises $1.00, Hero raises to $3.50, 1 fold, BU calls $3.50

Flop: ($7.25) 9, 5, 4 (2 players)

Equity analysis
Board	9 5 4
	Equity	Win	Split	Loss	Hand
Player 1	54.53%	48.58%	11.89%	39.52%	77+, AJs+, KQs, 87s, 76s, 65s, AQo+
Player 2	45.47%	39.52%	11.89%	48.58%	A K

With these small changes you've won 6% equity. Considering the pot size (=> deadmoney) you're already well into coin flip territory.

It gets even better, as you get a gutshot and a flush draw:

PartyPoker $25 NL Hold'em (6-handed)

Stacks & Stats
UTG ($25)
MP ($25)
CO ($25)
BU ($25) (21 / 15 / 2.5 / 59 / 10) (VPIP / PFR / AF / ft3-bet / 4-bet)
Hero ($25)
BB ($25)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A , K
3 folds, BU raises $1.00, Hero raises to $3.50, 1 fold, BU calls $3.50

Flop: ($7.25) 5, 4, 2 (2 players)

Equity analysis
Board	5 4 2
	Equity	Win	Split	Loss	Hand
Player 1	32.72%	27.35%	10.76%	61.9%	77+, AJs+, KQs, 87s, 76s, 65s, AQo+
Player 2	67.28%	61.9%	10.76%	27.35%

You can't say now that you haven't hit on a board like this. You simply need to make this big difference clear to yourself and correctly assess your hand strength. On the flop here you're over 2/3 ahead against your opponent's range, making you the clear favourite. You need to bear the significance of the hand in mind.

Final comparison: what would the situation be with queens in this spot?

Equity analysis
Board	5 4 2
	Equity	Win	Split	Loss	Hand
Player 1	34.39%	32.61%	3.56%	63.84%	77+, AJs+, KQs, 87s, 76s, 65s, AQo+
Player 2	65.61%	63.84%	3.56%	32.61%	QQ

A whole percent and a half less. However, do you know with certainty how you would play queens here?

We only want to briefly introduce this subject. You should think back to the semi-bluff. Without any further additional outs, he goal here, as above, is to take the pot unimproved as quickly as possible.

This means answering the question: what good cards might show up on the turn?

There are lots of overcards on a 447 flop, at least on a Q/J turn you can tell a plausible story and make some of the hands above (i.e.  88-TT) fold.

But what's on a Q72 flop? The turn always gives a medium card here (with an overcard you improve and don't have to or can't semi-bluff anymore). Does it make sense to keep barrelling with a 3 on the turn?

You should always bear stories like this in mind. Because of the weak overcard outs, the emphasis in the word semibluff is now on the bluff.

Your position is fundamental, as ever. You deliberately see spots where you have to act out of position, in position you clearly have a lot of advantages.

The main advantage here is that you can allow yourself a freecard on the flop. This in itself is an invaluable thing to have. Alternatively, you can even place light value bets against the right opponent and bets for a free river card.

It's possible to induce bluffs, balance slow plays and to exercise pot control.

All this should tell you one thing: watch your position, especially in 3-bet pots and don't overdo 3-bets out of position with broadways agains the wrong (i.e. loose, call-happy, move-happy) opponents.

In multiway pots, overcards become even more danagerous. On one hand, you rarely run against very weak ranges, you would have to make two players fold. It's even less likely that your outs will also be sufficient against several opponents.

However, this is accompanied by the fact that your pure equity drops significantly:

Equity analysis
Board	7 4 4
	Equity	Win	Split	Loss	Hand
Player 1	40.28%	37.56%	6.04%	56.4%	77+, AJs+, KQs, 87s, 76s, 65s, AQo+
Player 2	19.43%	15.56%	8.35%	76.1%	A K
Player 3	40.28%	37.56%	6.04%	56.4%	77+, AJs+, KQs, 87s, 76s, 65s, AQo+

This doesn't apply to strong overcard draws as in example 6. The key here is to keep your foot on the gas.

Equity analysis
Board	5 4 2
	Equity	Win	Split	Loss	Hand
Player 1	22.79%	19.80%	6.74%	73.46%	77+, AJs+, KQs, 87s, 76s, 65s, AQo+
Player 2	54.43%	49.7%	10.23%	40.07%	A K
Player 3	22.79%	19.80%	6.74%	73.46%	77+, AJs+, KQs, 87s, 76s, 65s, AQo+

Last but not least, something that's been left out until now: how do you play spots like this against calling stations?

This point should certainly not be overlooked, as most spots happen against exactly this kind of opponent because they simply call too many 3-bets.

However, you can't stop putting pressure on them as the more they call, the more likely your 3-bet is to be classed as a value bet.

Where calling stations are concerned, thinking about bluffs postflop is less critical. Here you need to ask yourself if you have a value bet against a loose range with A high and K kicker. Bear in mind though that you shouldn't overdo it.

It's difficult to make a general assumption against this kind of opponent. That's why in the last two parts there will also be examples where we examine this kind of opponent specifically.

LINKS
Related articles: Overcards in 3-Bet Pots (1) - Your Equity Overcards in 3-Bet Pots (3) - Possible Plays as a Preflop Aggressor Overcards in 3-Bet Pots (4) - Possible Plays without Initiative