Bet types - the protection bet
Introduction
In this article
- Why protection matters
- What to protect against
- When and how to protect
One of the most basic factors in poker is the protection of your own hand. You often bet or raise with the intention of giving bad odds to a hand that could have a lot of outs against you, thus forcing your opponent to make an incorrect call or to give up - these bets are called protection bets.
A protection bet is a bet (or a raise) that tries to protect your hand against weaker hands which could have some potential outs against you: if you didn't bet, your opponent can see the next card way too easily.
For instance, if you check out of position, villain can take a free card, and if you just call in position, you give him a cheap card. You should try to prevent this whenever you think you're ahead but have some scare cards you don't want to see on the next street.
In this article, you will learn what you have to protect against, how much you should bet and when you should avoid a protection bet.
Parallels to other betting types
It's hard to combine a protection bet with other kinds of bets. In the case of protection, you usually assume that you have the best hand, so normally, you're also willing to go all-in. If you make the bet on the flop and you were pre-flop aggressor, it's also a kind of continuation bet.
A possible connection to probe bets and position bets can be made due to the fact that you will also try to protect your hands against possible draws there, even if you're mostly just exploiting your position or your situation.
PartyPoker $25 NL Hold'em (6 handed)
Stacks & Stats
MP ($25)
CO ($25)
UTG ($25)
Hero ($25)
SB ($25)
BU ($25)
Preflop: Hero is BB with J
, 4
UTG calls $0.25, 3 folds, SB calls $0.25, Hero checks
Flop: ($0.75) 2, 2, 4
(2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.60, 2 folds
What to protect against
The most important question one has to ask in this topic is: what do I have to protect against?
The definition tells us you're protecting against hands that could have some outs against you. In that case, two important questions remain:
- How are you supposed to know your opponent's hand?
- How many outs are 'some outs'?
Of course, you can never know the exact hand your opponent has, but you can put him on a certain range often enough. When this range contains a couple of hands that could constitute a draw on a certain board, and thus could have a lot of outs against you, you should always protect.
As long as you have a strong hand yourself, you hardly ever make a mistake in doing so. As previously said, protection bets are also value bets - even if there is nothing to protect against, it's not wrong to bet to extract value.
Let's take a look at the second question: how many outs start getting dangerous?
These are the four main categories you have to protect against:
- Flush draws
- Straight draws
- Overcards
- Combo draws which are a combination of the categories above
PartyPoker $25 NL Hold'em (6 handed)
Stacks & Stats
MP ($25)
CO ($25)
UTG ($25)
BB ($25)
SB ($25)
Hero ($25)
Preflop: Hero is Button with A , K
2 folds, CO calls $0.25, Hero raises to $1.50, 2 folds, CO calls $1.50
Flop: ($3.85) A, T, 4 (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $3.00, CO calls $3.00
Turn: ($9.85) 5 (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $7.50 , CO folds
In this example, hero hits his top pair top kicker on the flop, but he doesn't like the board at all. There are already three hearts on the board, a fourth would probably turn his hand into trash. He should absolutely avoid giving out free cards here and would do good to bet high and aggressive. On the flop, villain plays check/call, meaning he will often sit on a flush draw with just one high heart plus X.
If you put him on that hand, it should be clear that you have to keep betting on the turn. Your opponent gets very bad odds, and it will be hard for him to call his flush draw out of position. In case he does, he is making a mistake and you will win money in the long run. If he folds, you win the pot right away, which is also a desirable result.
Even if your opponent flopped the flush, you shouldn't be scared on this board; you can just put it down as bad luck. Of course, you don't have to go broke on such a flop every time, but you have to keep an eye out for what your opponents do.
For instance, if your opponent is usually very passive, you can fold if he starts getting aggressive.
PartyPoker $25 NL Hold'em (6 handed)
Stacks & Stats
MP ($25)
CO ($25) (32/8/0.5/29/1021) [VPIP/PFR/AF/WTS/Hands]
UTG ($25)
BB ($25)
SB ($25)
Hero ($25)
Preflop: Hero is Button with A , K
2 folds, CO calls $0.25, Hero raises to $1.50, 2 folds, CO calls $1.50
Flop: ($3.85) A, T, 4 (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $3.00, CO raises to $8.50
If a passive player decides to check/raise the flop, you can also get out of the hand. However, if you still think you're ahead, you should push, as this allows you to keep protecting. A call is completely out of the question, as a lot of turn cards could help your opponent, but none of them are much help to you. What we are getting to is this: you have to protect, but you don't have to go broke every time. Details on post-flop play are beyond the scope of this article.
Especially when it comes to weaker players, you usually know that they call way too much and suited cards are always amongst their favorites to play. The thought pattern outlined in example 2 also applies to the following hand:
PartyPoker $25 NL Hold'em (6 handed)
Stacks & Stats
MP ($25)
CO ($25)
UTG ($25)
BB ($25)
SB ($25)
Hero ($25)
Preflop: Hero is Button with A , K
2 folds, CO calls $0.25, Hero raises to $1.50, 2 folds, CO calls $1.50
Flop: ($3.85) A, T, 4 (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $3.00, CO calls $3.00
Turn: ($9.85) 5 (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $7.50 , CO folds
As the board is 2-suited (meaning one color appears twice), a flush draw is still possible. This draw usually has 9 outs against you (not taking into account exceptions, there are 13 cards for each color, and 4 are already in the game).
The resulting danger is that the flush draw has the odds of 2:1 from flop to river: this means if you get to an all-in, it will improve to a flush one out of three times! You should definitely be aware of this danger.
The difference between flush and straight draws is very marginal for your game.
There are two kinds of straight draws:
- First, there is the gutshot, where the opponent needs one precise card to improve, giving him 4 outs against you.
- The much more dangerous version is the open-ended straight draw. In this case, he has 8 outs against you, making it virtually as dangerous as a flush draw.
PartyPoker $25 NL Hold'em (6 handed)
Stacks & Stats
MP ($25)
CO ($25)
UTG ($25)
BB ($25)
SB ($25)
Hero ($25)
Preflop: Hero is Button with J
, J
2 folds, CO calls $0.25, Hero raises to $1.50, 2 folds, CO calls $1.50
Flop: ($3.85) 4, 5, 6 (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $3.00, CO calls $3.00
Turn: ($9.85) T (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $7.50 , CO folds
As you can see, there is no difference in play when comparing to example 2. You have to protect in the same way you would if there was a possible flush draw.
The only difference is that straight draws are usually harder to spot. At the same time, they are normally less probable, since there are a lot of potential drawing hands you wouldn't put your opponent on.
PartyPoker $25 NL Hold'em (6 handed)
Stacks & Stats
MP ($25)
CO ($25)
UTG ($25)
BB ($25)
SB ($25)
Hero ($25)
Preflop: Hero is Button with J , J
2 folds, CO calls $0.25, Hero raises to $1.50, 2 folds, CO calls $1.50
Flop: ($3.85) 2, 3, T (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $3.00, CO calls $3.00
Turn: ($9.85) T (2 players)
CO checks, Hero...
In this case, the board is connected, too, but only 45 has 8 outs against you. Your play on the turn thus depends on other factors, since an OESD becomes quite improbable (this doesn't necessarily mean you shouldn't bet here).
The little brother of the OESD that we mentioned earlier is the gutshot. He needs one certain card to improve, but it gets a lot more difficult to put your opponent on that draw. Additionally, he only has 4 outs, meaning you find yourself on the border line of protection here. Next to the fact that it is much less likely for your opponent to get involved in a big pot with just a gutshot, the probability that he hits decreases, as well.
Overcards can have quite some outs against you as well - a notable example in this case is AK, a hand that a lot of opponents like to play, but not always aggressively. In case you have a small overpair, the AK combination has a clean 6 outs against you. While you turned a blind eye to the gutshot with its 4 outs, saying you don't necessarily have to protect (given that a gutshot is both hard to spot and improbable), AK is quite a probable card and even has two additional outs.
Especially in 3-bet pots, it's usually standard to go broke with an overpair.
PartyPoker $25 NL Hold'em (6 handed)
Stacks & Stats
MP ($25)
CO ($25)
UTG ($25)
BB ($25)
SB ($25)
Hero ($25)
Preflop: Hero is Button with J , J
2 folds, CO raises to $1.00, Hero raises to $3.50, 2 folds, CO calls $2.50
Flop: ($7.35) 4, 4, 6 (2 players)
CO bets $5.00, Hero raises to $21.50 (All-in)
You hit a paired board and the opponent donk bets into you; also, a fold is out of question. If villain slow-played a bigger overpair, tough luck. His play still wouldn't make sense; why would he slow-play pre-flop and then donk into you on the flop?
It is very possible that your opponent sits on AK/AQ/KQ here. Each one of these hands has 6 clean outs against you. This means you have to raise (in this case, taking into account the remaining stacks, it translates into a push) to protect your hand.
You also want to extract value in this case, and you often even get a call from these hands. And don't forget that hands like TT/99/88/77 also often find a call in that spot (usually limited to weaker opponents).
7:1 3:1
Overcards have flop-to-river odds of 3:1 and in one out of 4 cases, your opponent can improve to a better pair. Take a look at the odds he gets after your push:
Pot = $7.35 + $5 + $21.50 = $33.85
To call: $16.50
Odds: 2.05 to 1
So if your opponent calls, he makes a mistake, but we have all seen calls that were much worse than this.
The meaning of combined draws should be known to you:
- Some draws are a combination of the previous draws and thus have even more outs against you.
- At the same time, it is important to notice that on a board that allows for combined draws, the probability for at least some kind of draw also increases.
PartyPoker $25 NL Hold'em (6 handed)
Stacks & Stats
MP ($25)
CO ($25)
UTG ($25)
BB ($25)
SB ($25)
Hero ($25)
Preflop: Hero is Button with J , J
2 folds, CO calls $0.25, Hero raises to $1.50, 2 folds, CO calls $1.50
Flop: ($3.85) 4, 5, 6 (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $3.00, CO calls $3.00
Turn: ($9.85) T (2 players)
CO checks, Hero...
From this point of view, this board is more than just dangerous to you. If you assume villain to be capable of playing limp/call with suited connectors here (which is definitely not rare!), we are confronted with a possible flush draw, a possible OESD and, of course, overcards. You definitely have to protect here, no matter what.
If villain has one of these draws, you're still OK. It starts getting messy in case he has a combo draw, though.
Extreme examples:
- Villain has A
K => villain has 15 outs against you (9 for the flush, 6 for the overcards) - Villain has A 7 => villain has 18 outs against you (9 for the flush, 6 for the OESD, 3 for the overcard)
- Villain has 7 6 => villain has 20 outs against you (9 for the flush, 6 for the OESD, 3 outs for the 7 (giving him 2 pair) and 2 outs for the 6 (improving him to trips)
- In case villain holds a clean 15-outer, he is in fact favorite on the flop. You can surely imagine how much worse your situation gets against 18 or even 20 outs.
This example shows quite nicely how important the protection bet is. There is hardly any board where your opponent doesn't have some outs against you; it is often the case that a combination of draws gives him a couple of outs.
Another example:
Villain has Q 8 => villain has 8 outs against you (3 outs for the overcard, 4 outs for the 7 (gutshot), 1 out for the back-door flush draw)
- As discussed in the article(s) about outs, a back-door flush draw counts for one out.
- A back-door straight draw doesn't have a complete out.
- A small pocket pair has 2 outs against you.
You should have realized by now that it doesn't just matter what outs your opponent has, but also what his odds look like. You have to confront him with pot odds that are worse than his real odds (or the odds of the drawing hand you put him on).
Therefore, the principle of odds and outs always has to be present in the back of your head and you should also know what odds you give to your opponent with different bet sizes. Take a look at the article "Bet sizes" for an elaborate discussion on that topic.
Here's a short summary:
Pot: $6
- Hero bets $6 => Villain gets odds of $6/$12 => 2 to 1
- Hero bets $4 => Villain gets odds of $4/$10 => 2,5 to 1
- Hero bets $3 => Villain gets odds of $3/$9 => 3 to 1
A scare card is a card that would make the board look a lot more dangerous on the following street. It can be a card that completes a flush draw, an overcard (like an ace) or a card that increases the connectivity of the board to a dangerous level.
As a protection bet also constitutes a value bet, a scare card doesn't just mean that your hand could now be dominated, but there is also the very real danger that villain won't be comfortable with calling another bet.
PartyPoker $25 NL Hold'em (6 handed)
Stacks & Stats
MP ($25)
CO ($25)
UTG ($25)
BB ($25)
SB ($25)
Hero ($25)
Preflop: Hero is Button with J , J
2 folds, CO calls $0.25, Hero raises to $1.50, 2 folds, CO calls $1.50
Flop: ($3.85) 5, 6, 2 (2 players)
CO checks, Hero checks
Turn: ($3.85) A (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $3.00, CO folds
CO shows: 8 8
The turn isn't a nice card for you at all - it's an overcard and it would complete a possible flush. A turn bet almost equals a bluff at this point, as you can't assume there are a lot of worse hands left that would call you.
As you can see, the CO folded a small overpair. With this hand, he would usually have called your bet at least once more. But after this turn card, he check/folds his hand as it just turned a lot weaker, meaning you missed out on some value.
If you think about how many scare cards are possible here (K / Q for example wouldn't do any good either) and that these cards not only turn your hand into the underdog, but could additionally animate your opponent into giving up on a semi-strong hand, you have to bet the flop to protect your hand and get value for your hand as long as it's this strong.
Alternatives to protection?
What alternatives are available? The answer is easy: instead of betting or raising, you don't.
This decision has two main reasons:
-
Pot control: you see your opponent on a possible draw in too few cases and prefer to keep the pot small in order to get to the showdown as cheap as possible.
-
Slow-play: you hold a hand that is so strong that you don't need to be afraid of possible draws (like a flopped full house). In this case, you hope that villain improves so he pays you off better on the following streets.
We won't dive deeper into these two points though, as they are discussed in detail in other articles.
Summary
In all these examples you saw why you have to protect, what you have to protect against and how you can do this. If you lose a hand against an opponent that apparently sucked out on you, you should always ask yourself first whether you protected your hand enough. Maybe you gave away free cards or cheap cards? Maybe the odds you gave him were favorable enough to call, so the mistake wasn't on his side but on yours.
The examples showed that there is a multitude of possible draws you can be up against, some of which you won't even recognize right away; this is true in particular for combo draws. Every protection bet is at the same time a value bet, so play aggressively, bet your hands and don't give away free cards - the suck outs will decrease noticeably in the long run.
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