Game Plan (1): Introduction

A game plan is a guideline for your play in specific situations against different opponents. You will plan your decisions for your whole range and not just for a single hand considered in a vacuum.

Poker is a complex game and there are endless numbers of different game situations. Creating a game plan for each and every spot in advance is not practical.

On the other hand a rigid starting hands chart is too unspecific and inflexible to be successful at higher stakes.

The best compromise between these two approaches is to create game plans which focus on recurring situations in the game. This middle ground offers a feasible and, concurrently, more successful way of planning your strategy. The main criteria that you will base your decisions on are: your position, your opponent's position and the pre-flop action.

Typical situations that you should have a game plan for include:

• Playing MP3 against a 3-bet from the SB.
• 3-betting from the BTN against an open raise from the UTG.
• Calling an UTG open raise from the BB.

Your goal is to be ready for as many standard situations as possible. Having a game plan at your disposal for frequent spots allows you to develop very precise pre-flop ranges and a good sense of how to play your hands after the flop. It will be your path to more convenient and, most importantly, profitable decision-making.

In this lesson, you will learn the overall approach when developing a game plan for a concrete situation. You will see how to make reasonable assumptions about your opponents' ranges, how to build your own ranges and how to make adjustments for different opponents.

A game plan is always created for your entire range and not for a single hand!

The development of your game plan takes place in four steps:

1. Analysing a typical opponent
2. Creating your own ranges and establishing your basic game plan
3. Adjusting your basic game plan to different opponent types
4. Identifying weaknesses in your game plan

In the following, we will go through all of these phases in a concrete example.

Example: Game plan for a 3-bet strategy from the SB against a CO open raise

In order to create your game plan for this standard spot, you merely have to follow the four steps. Your deliberations should include your pre-flop ranges, as well as some basic ideas about the post-flop play.

Step 1: Analysing a typical opponent

In the first step, you are trying to get a good overview of the situation by collecting some basic information. The goal is to figure out how a typical opponent plays against you in this specific scenario.

Take a standard opponent as your starting point

A standard opponent is defined as the kind of opponent you will run into the most at your limit. In general, this will be a TAG playing several tables. At higher limits, the standard opponents are usually more aggressive than they are at lower limits.

Simply choose a specific standard opponent at your limit and start by taking a closer look at his play. Your assumptions should be as precise as possible, so tracking software can be a big help.

In this case, your database needs to contain more than 4,000 hands of your opponent's play. If you don't have 4,000 hands for one specific opponent, you can use an alias to combine the stats of several standard type opponents in your database. Just make sure not to mix opponents that are too different.

If you don't use any tracking software, you can use a typical starting hands chart to estimate your opponent's range. You can also use your own raising standards or and your experience as a basis for your estimates.

Create a pre-flop profile for your standard opponent

The pre-flop profile is made up of concrete ranges and anomalies in your opponent's playing behaviour. While pre-flop ranges can easily be deduced in a very accurate way, with the assistance of tracking software, you will need to analyse specific hands in order to identify relevant anomalies.

Let's get back to the example: creating a 3-bet strategy from the small blind against a raise from the cut off. In order to create the pre-flop profile of the chosen standard opponent, you first define his open raising range from the cut off, as well as the ranges that he will continue with after a 3-bet.

Relevant pre-flop ranges for your standard opponent
	Open raise: 22+, A2s+, K8s+, Q8s+, J8s+, T7s+, 96s+, 86s+, 75s+, 64s+, 54s, A9o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo , T9o, 98o (#382)
	Call 3-bet: TT-77, AQs-ATs, KJs+, QJs, J9s+, T9s, 98s, 87s, AQo-AJo, KQo (#104)
	4-bet/call: JJ+, AK (#40)

If you confront your opponent with a 3-bet, he will have the following options: fold, call 3-bet, 4-bet/call and 4-bet/fold. Establishing your opponent's pre-flop profile starts by writing down precise ranges and taking notes on the insights gained through the analysis of specific hands.

In practice, your opponent will, on occasion, most likely deviate from these lines and not play every hand the exact same way every time. However, for the purpose of your game plan, it is however important to define the ranges in a very detailed way. If you run into trouble while trying to assign certain hands, you can separate them into their respective combinations and divide them up between several categories.

Examining the pre-flop ranges for anomalies and drawing conclusions

The pre-flop profile will already deliver a lot of important information, allowing you to draw crucial conclusions. It could look like this in an example:

Observation: Your opponent folds 213 of his 382 hand combinations against a 3-bet. This corresponds to a fold equity of 56%.

Conclusion: A 3-bet does not equal automatic profit. With a 3-betting size of 9BB, you would need a fold equity of at least 68%.

Observation: Your opponent bluffs 25 of the 65 hand combinations in his 4-bet range. This corresponds to a total of 38%.

Conclusion: Against this tight bluffing range you can't shove all-in with 55 or A2s as a bluff. The value part of your all-in range bottoms out at JJ with an EV of 1.4BB and AK with an EV of 5.86BB.

Calculation: There are 31BB of dead money in the pot, composed of your opponent's 21BB 4-bet, your 9BB 3-bet and the big blind.

EV_all-in (hand) = fold equity * dead money + (1 - fold equity) * (equity * 201 - remaining stack)

In numbers, this translates to:

EV(hand) = 0.38 * 31BB + 0.62 * (equity * 201BB - 91BB)

EV(JJ) = 11.78BB - 10.3BB = 1.48BB

EV(AK) = 11.78BB - 5.92BB = 5.86BB

Observation: Your opponent has JJ+ and AK in his 4-bet range. This means that his call 3-bet range is capped.

Conclusion: He rarely has overpairs on the flop and almost never holds top pair top kicker on Kxx and Axx flops. As a consequence, you will almost always have the best hand with a top pair top kicker.

Observation: Against very passive players with a 3-betting value of less than 6%, your opponent does not call broadways or suited connectors against a 3-bet.

Conclusion: If you play a very tight 3-bet range against this opponent, the pre-flop profile which you are currently working on will become invalid.

Examine your opponent's post-flop play for general tendencies

If your opponent calls your 3-bet, you will have to make some important decisions on the flop. This means that a good game plan goes beyond a pre-flop profile of your opponent's play and includes some information about his post-flop behaviour. Unfortunately, your tracking software can not hand this to you on a silver platter. You will have to analyse specific hands in respect to the various situations and use these instances to draw your conclusions. In our scenario, the available information and your deductions could look as follows:

Observation: If the opponent has showdown value, he will try to see the showdown. He will usually call down three bets with  on . He will check if you give him the chance.

Conclusion: His calling range is bigger than his value betting range, so you should take the initiative and, consequently, bet for value against his showdown range.

Observation: The opponent calls a lot of continuation bets. You have seen him call with hands as weak as ace high with a backdoor flush draw, an overcard with gutshot and with any pair.

Conclusion: Your opponent's calling range on the flop is doubly weak. As we have already seen, he doesn't have strong overpairs or AK in his range. On top of that, he seems to float often with marginal hands when he has position. You thus have low fold equity on the flop and should limit yourself to a more narrow continuation bet range with fewer bluffs.

Observation: The opponent will almost always bet on low and wet boards like  if you check to him.

Conclusion: Your opponent interprets checks on this kind of board as a sign of weakness and assumes that the pre-flop aggressor is giving up. He will probably have a high bluff frequency, which you can exploit by checking to induce bluffs.

Step 2: Defining your basic game plan

Your basic game plan is the foundation of your decisions when playing against a standard opponent, so you need to build concrete ranges and to define lines for typical post-flop situations.

At this point, you have already created a pre-flop profile of your opponent's play, analysed his overall post-flop tendencies and drawn some conclusions. These insights will now be your guide as you define your basic game plan.

Weak points in your opponent's play as a starting point

Possible weak points are ranges and properties of your opponent's play that allow you to make precise predictions about his hand strength and his behaviour. Based on those weaknesses, you will build your range with the goal of creating easy and profitable decisions for yourself.

For that purpose, you should experiment with various ranges and estimate the implications. Don't try finding perfect ranges right away, but rather focus on something that works for your style and which you can build on in the future.

Pre-flop ranges for your basic game plan

An example of a 3-bet range could look like this:

Why did we choose these ranges? As you can see, the chosen 3-bet range is made up of a value range and a bluff range. The most important attack vector against your opponent's play is his 3-bet calling range, which, as we know, is wide and capped. He is frequently calling weak ranges on the flop, so you should pick a value range that dominates your opponent's 3-bet calling range.

You also know, from the previous analysis, that your opponent adjusts his play against very tight opponents by folding a lot of hands pre-flop. If you want to be paid off with your value range, you will have to include bluffs in your range.

Lastly, the analysis has shown that your opponent will often interpret checks as weakness and attack the pot on wet boards with small cards. This helps you with the selection of your bluff range, allowing you to choose hands that connect well with the boards in question.

Your game plan for the most important post-flop lines

As far as the post-flop game is concerned, your game plan should include an analysis of the most prevalent lines. After compiling a list of all relevant lines, you can try to estimate your opponent's reactions. This will allow you to further adjust your respective ranges.

This approach is especially effective if you take a closer look at specific hands and define your entire range for the line in question.

An example of this could look as follows:

Your opponent tends to call down with marginal showdown value and he also floats a lot on the flop. Your range should thus include many value hands and only very few bluffs. Strong draws would be a good addition to the bluff part of your range. Catching you on a speculative hand from time to time will mislead your opponent into overestimating your real bluffing frequency.

Your analysis and the specification of your "bet flop, bet turn, bet river" range could end up looking like this:

$1/$2 No-Limit Hold'em Cash
100BB-Stacks

Preflop: Hero is SB
2 folds, CO raises to $5, BTN folds, Hero raises to $18, BB folds, CO calls $13

Flop: ($38) (2 Players)
Hero bets $20, CO calls $20

Turn: ($78) (2 Players)
Hero bets $44, CO calls $44

River: ($166) (2 Players)
Hero bets $138 (All-in)

Which hands should be part of your "bet flop, bet turn, bet river" range in this scenario? Answering that question requires you to think about how your opponent will play his call 3-bet range on the flop, turn and river.

Analysis of your opponent's call 3-bet range  - -
Your opponent's ranges and hand combinations	Probable behaviour against "bet, bet, bet"
Top range: TT, AJs, KJs, QJs, JTs, J9s, 98s, AJ (#30)	(Flop - turn - river) 1. Call - call - call 2. Call - raise 3. Raise
Middle range: 99, ATs, T9s (#12)	1. Call - fold 2. Fold 3. Call - call - fold 4. Call - call - call
Bottom range: 88, 77, 87s  (#12)	1. Fold 2. Call - fold 3. Call - call - fold 4. Call - call - call
Draws: AQs, KQs, AQo, KQo (#32)	1. Call - call - fold 2. Call - fold 3. Call - raise 4. Raise

Taking all factors into consideration, you can proceed to defining your "bet flop, bet turn, bet river" range. You should also take into account that you always play street by street and that you don't know the turn or river in advance.

Your range on  - -
Pre-flop 3-bet range:	Value: JJ+, AJs+, AQo+ (#56) Bluff: 55-22, 97s, 86s+, 75s+, 65s, 54s (#39)
"Bet, bet, bet" range:	Value: 55, JJ+, AJs (#27) Bluff: 9h7h, 8h7h, 8h6h, 7h6h, AhQh, AKs (#9)

As we already know, your opponent rarely folds on the flop. His calling range is rather weak in this scenario, so he will often try to bluff on the turn.

A board where your opponent's calling range includes a lot of weak hands could look like this:  - .

This means that your check/call range on the turn should mostly contain hands which are too weak to value bet on the turn, but which will still be ahead of the opponent's turn betting range. It is also appropriate to play some part of your value range as check/call, so that your play remains less predictable.

On the current board, your "bet flop, check/call turn" range could look like this:

Your range on  -
Pre-flop 3-bet range:	Value: JJ+, AJs+, AQo+ (#60) Bluff: 55-22, 97s, 86s+, 75s+, 65s, 54s (#42)
"Bet flop, check/call turn" range:	AA, 55-22, 86s, 76s, 65s (#33)

Your opponent shows tendencies to attack your checks as pre-flop aggressor on boards with low cards. That's why your check range on the flop should also include hands from your bluff 3-bet range that managed to connect with the board. Of course, the biggest part of your check range will still be composed of hands that you intend to fold.

In this example, the  board is unlikely to hit the opponent's call 3-bet range, so a check-raise with good hands doesn't make much sense.

Your range on
Pre-flop 3-bet range:	Value: JJ+, AJs+, AQo+ (#60) Bluff: 55-22, 97s, 86s+, 75s+, 65s, 54s (#40)
"Check/call flop" range	55-33, 97s, 87s, 76s, 65s, 54s (#27)
"Check/raise flop" range	86s, 75s (#7)

Step 3: Adjusting your game plan to different opponent types

Your basic game plan has now grown into a full-fledged and elaborate strategy against a standard opponent. In practice, however, you will run into many different types of opponents.

That's why your next step consists of analysing how the differences in your opponents' play will impact on your basic game plan. You will need to contrast your opponents with your standard opponent in order to discern the differences and to figure out how these changes affect your ranges.

In practice, this could look as follows:

Observation: Your opponent folds more than 66% to 3-bets.

Conclusion: Every 3-bet is profitable. You should 3-bet a wide range against this kind of opponent. You should, however, be mindful of the fact that you will have to give up many hands after a call. Your intention is to win money pre-flop, not to throw money out of the window by 3 barrel bluffing into a strong range.

Adjusted 3-bet range: QQ+, AQs+, A9s-A2s, K9s-K7s, Q9s-Q8s, J9s-J7s, T8s-T7s, AQo+, A9o-A4o, KTo-K7o

With 19.46%, your new 3-bet range is more than twice the size of your 8.4% 3-betting range in your basic game plan.

Observation: Your opponent only folds 41% to 3-bets and fights for each pot after the flop.

Conclusion: Considering that your opponent's range is weaker on the flop than usual, you can 3-bet more hands for value and get rid of your bluff range.

Adjusted 3-bet range: TT+, ATs+, KJs+, AJo+, KQo

Observation: Your opponent folds 59% to continuation bets on the flop.

Conclusion: Seeing how your opponent doesn't usually float and gives up most marginal hands right away, you can bluff more hands on the flop.

Adjusted post-flop game plan: You play the same pre-flop 3-bet strategy, but you change your post-flop approach. In comparison to the basic game plan, you will bluff more often on the flop by increasing your continuation bets, while decreasing your betting frequency on the turn.

Step 4: Identifying weaknesses in your own game plan

Your game plan is now ready to be put to use! You should, however, keep in mind that your game plan is never perfect. You should be very aware of its weaknesses, so that you can quickly notice when one of your opponents exploits them systematically.

In order to do this, you have to put yourself in your opponents' shoes and dissect your game plan while looking for weak points. How would you play against yourself?

This is what it could look like in practice:

• Always 3-betting your strong hands in the small blind before the flop means that your calling range will be capped in this spot. If your opponent is observant, he will have a pretty good idea about which hands you can't have on the flop. He will be able to read you accurately on a lot of boards, allowing him to apply more pressure and increase his profits.
• Your "bet flop, bet turn, bet river" line contains mostly value hands. If your opponent realises that he often loses in these spots, he will probably stop paying you off.
• If your opponent notices you check-raising several times as the pre-flop aggressor, he will start checking marginal hands behind.

These points are not quite as fatal as it seems at first. They are not fundamental flaws of your game plan and if an observant opponent starts getting a good idea about your ranges, you can simply adjust your approach by refining your strategy.

Improving your game plan

Armed with a first version of your game plan for this scenario, you are now ready to put it to use. It should, however, merely be a starting point and you should constantly strive to improve it further. You should always be critical of your game plan:

• What results am I getting with my 3-bet range?
• Do small pairs make sense as part of my 3-bet range if I don't have a pre-flop 5-bet bluff range?
• On which board textures am I getting the best results? Which combinations cause the biggest problems?

With this in mind, your game plan will also be a great tool to help you organize your session reviews in an efficient way. Whenever you are struggling in a tough spot, you can recall your game plan and analyse the hand in its specific strategic context. Your range evaluations will continually improve with time.

Summary

In your game plan, you always consider your entire range instead of just a specific hand. You develop a concrete decision-making process for each situation and will have an overall plan for all streets.

The four steps to your own game plan: Analysing a typical opponent: Use range considerations and specific observations to create a pre-flop profile of your opponent. Analyse his post-flop play to identify overall tendencies. Defining your basic game plan: Find weak points in your opponent's play. Use them to define your pre-flop ranges and develop your respective post-flop lines. Adjusting your basic game plan to different opponents: Examine the impact of different playing styles on your basic game plan and adjust your ranges for the various opponent types. Identifying weaknesses in your own game plan: Ask yourself how you would play against yourself. Try to find weak points in your own game plan so you are able to react when necessary.