Game Plan (6): Barrelling Frequencies

You should already have read:

• Game Plan (1): Introduction
• Calldown Frequencies

Barrelling frequencies form part of your basic game plan and help to determine your post flop betting ranges.

When devising your basic game plan, you define the ranges that you want to see the flop with. If you want to bet post flop but aren't sure about the composition of your opponent's calling and folding ranges, barrelling frequencies are your standard. You only deviate from that standard if you have a read on your opponent.

The goal of your betting strategy is to keep the EV of your opponent's calling and folding ranges as low as possible. To achieve that goal, you have to consider the following:

• If you don't barrel enough, your opponent's folding range is too profitable.
• If you barrel too much, your opponent's calling range is too profitable.

An optimal barrelling frequency exists where you don't bet too little or too much.

Barrelling frequencies: A concept to define your post flop betting ranges.

The correct barrelling frequency minimizes your opponent's EV

Your betting range consists of two parts, a value range and a bluffing range. Both ranges have a barrier up until which, you bet. The bluff barrier is the point until which you bluff. The value barrier marks the point from where you start betting for value.

Specifically, if...

• ...your value range is too tight, the weaker hands in your opponent's calling range will no longer pay off your value bets and become profitable for your opponent. You also give free cards to the hands in his folding range. Your opponent's benefit therefore, is greater than your savings against his raising range.
• ...your value range is too loose, the strong hands in your opponent's raising range will generate a lot more value and become even more profitable. Additionally, the strong hands in his calling range will win out over your loose value bets. These advantages give your opponent more value than you gain against his weak calling hands and his folding range.

• ...your bluffing range is too tight, your opponent's folding range will profit, because it will suddenly start winning pots. This profit is greater than your savings against his raising and calling range.
• ...your bluffing range is too loose, every hand in your opponent's calling and raising range will become more profitable. This benefit will outweigh your winnings against his folding range.

You minimize your opponent's EV if you play the optimal barrelling frequency.

Your bluff strategy and your value strategy minimize the EV of your opponent's ranges.

The value to bluff ratio

Your value range (V) and your bluffing range (B) determine the balance between value bets and bluffs (your VB-ratio). A correct barrelling frequency must have a balanced VB-ratio.

You are exploitable if your VB-ratio is off balance.

If your VB-ratio gets thrown off because you either bet too loose or you bluff too tight, your opponent can instantly exploit you. He just has to raise fewer hands from his standard raising range and fold a good part of his calling range to gain extra EV.

If your VB-ratio gets skewed towards the bluff side because you value bet too tight or you bluff too much, your opponent will also be able to exploit you. He will just need to raise more hands from his standard calling and folding range and make more loose calls from his standard folding range, thus again gaining extra EV.

It is important to choose the correct VB-ratio to avoid direct exploits like these.

You're still open to indirect exploits if you have a balanced VB-ratio but don't bet enough hands, or bet too many hands

If you have a decent VB-ratio, your opponent can no longer use direct exploits like folding strong hands or bluff raises with weak hands.

But you will still lose if you don't play enough hands, or play too many. If you miss out on value bets and the corresponding bluffs, or if you value bet too thinly but you account for it by bluffing more, your opponent will still make a profit because his standard call down frequencies will be more profitable than otherwise.

Four factors for a correct barrelling frequency

The correct barrelling frequency is always different depending on the postflop situation. It is, however, always influenced by the same four factors. From each of these factors you can deduce how wide to value bet, how often to bluff, and which VB-Ratio that equates to. These factors are:

• Bet size
• Draw potential
• Favourable boards
• Future playability

Factor 1: Bigger bet size - tighter value, more bluffs

Your chosen bet size influences your betting range.

Against a bigger bet your opponent will fold more often. His raise and call ranges are stronger, therefore your value range is narrower.

You are giving worse pot odds with your stronger value range, so your opponent needs a higher success rate when bluff catching, in which case your VB-ratio is more bluff heavy.

Equally, your opponent will call a smaller bet more often and so your value range is wider. This means you have a more value heavy VB-ratio. This is so that you still don't let your opponent make exploitatively loose calls, even though you have a weak value range and are giving good pot odds.

Have a look at the effect of the bet size in this example.

You openraise to $30 from MP - a 3BB raise - with 22+, ATs+, A5s-A2s, KTs+, QTs+, J9s+, T8s+, 97s+, 87s, 76s, 65s, AJo+, KJo+ (17%, #226)

The BB calls the MP-open raise with QQ-66, AJs+, KQs, JTs, T9s, AQo+, KQo (8%, #102)

These two preflop ranges will be used in the following three examples.

Smaller bet size:

Flop: ($65) (2 players)
BB checks, Hero c-bets $32

With a 1/2 pot c-bet your value range begins with AQ. 51% of your betting range are value bets. You c-bet #65 of your #193 Range: AA, 99-88, AQs+, QTs+, J9s+, T8s+, 87s, 76s, 65s, AQo+. This equates to a 34% c-bet.

Bigger bet size:

Flop: ($65)  (2 players)
BB checks, Hero c-bets $65

With a pot size c-bet your value range begins with AK because you need to bet tighter than with a smaller bet size. 40% of your betting range are value bets. You can have more bluffs per value bet than with a smaller bet size. You c-bet #53 of your #193 Range: AA, 99-88, AKs, QTs+, J9s+, T8s+, 87s, 76s, 65s, AKo, which equates to a 27% c-bet.

With a bigger c-bet you bet less often and bluff more than with a smaller c-bet.

Factor 2: Fewer draw possibilities - tighter value, fewer bluffs

The structure of the board also influences your betting range.

On a board with little draw potential your opponent folds more often, therefore your value range is narrower. Additionally it is important to have a few stronger hands in your checking range. With little draw potential the board texture doesn't change very often, so you need to pass on some value bets on the flop, which further restricts your value range.

Your bluffs have less equity on a drier board texture, so your opponent needs a lower success rate when bluff catching which makes your VB-ratio more value heavy.

Equally, your opponent calls and raises more on a draw heavy board, making your value range wider. You also need fewer stronger hands in your checking range, which doesn't restrict your value range.

Your bluffs have more equity on a draw heavy texture because your opponent needs a higher success rate when bluff catching, therefore your VB-Ratio is more bluff heavy.

In the following example you can see the effect of the draw possibilities. You again raise from MP and are called by the BB. The ranges are the same as shown earlier. 

Draw heavy flop:

Flop: ($65) (2 players)
BB checks, Hero c-bets $65

You c-bet from 99 onwards for value and bluff with overcards, straight-draws and 5x. You bet #116 of your #213 combinations, of which, 36% are value hands. This equates to a 54% c-bet.

Your c-bet range is: 99+, 55, 22, AQs+, A5s-A2s, KTs, J9s+, T8s+, 87s, 76s, 65s, AQo+ (#116)

On 522r any hand without a pair has six pair outs, since both preflop ranges don't include many trips with or . This flop is therefore draw heavy and you have many bluffs in your c-bet range.

Dry flop:

Flop: ($65) (2 players)
BB checks, Hero c-bets $65

You c-bet for value with AT onwards and bluff with KQ and 22-33. You bet #74 of your #197 combinations, of which, you hold a value hand in 62% of cases. This equates to a c-bet of 38%.

Your c-bet range is: AA, 55, 33-22, ATs+, A5s, KQs, 65s, AJo+, KQo (#74)

On A55r a hand without a pair has no outs against an Ace. Both preflop ranges include a lot of Aces, therefore this is a dry flop. You c-bet a tighter value range and have fewer bluffs for every value hand.

Flop
Board texture	draw heavy	dry
#C-Bet of #total	#116 / #213	#74 / #197
C-Bet frequency	54%	38%
C-Bet #Value + #Bluff	#40 + #76	#46 + #28
Value part	36%	62%
C-Bet range	99+, 55, 22, AQs+, A5s-A2s, KTs, J9s+, T8s+, 87s, 76s, 65s, AQo+	AA, 55, 33-22, ATs+, A5s, KQs, 65s, AJo+, KQo

On the dry flop you c-bet fewer value hands and have a value heavier VB-Ratio than on the draw heavy flop.

Factor 3: Your opponent's range hits the board hard - tighter value

Both your and your opponent's ranges influence your betting range.

The range of the preflop aggressor and the preflop caller are different and on some boards this leads to one of the ranges hitting better than the other.

A board that hits your opponent's range clearly better than yours results in fewer strong value hands for you. Your value range is therefore accordingly narrower.

Note that your VB-Ratio is independent from whose range hits better.

Equally, your value range is wider on a board that hits your range better.

The following two examples show this. We are using the same ranges as before after the BB calls your MP open raise.

Villain favouring flop:

Flop: ($65) (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero c-bets $65

You c-bet for value with AA on and bluff with pair+gutshot and weak OESD. You bet #41 of your #188 combinations where 76% are bet for value. This equates to a c-bet of 21%.

Your c-bet range is: KK+, JJ-TT, AQs, J9s, T9s, 98s, AQo (#41)

KJTr hits the BB's range hard. He has a high percentage of broadway cards in his preflop range with AQ+, TT-QQ, etc. You also hold these hands but many weaker ones as well. You therefore often give up on this board texture. Your VB-Ratio in this example is very value heavy since your bluffs have very bad equity against your opponent's range. Gutshots like A2s can't profitably c-bet.

Hero favouring flop:

Flop: ($65) (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero cbets $65

You c-bet from AcK, JJ, A2s for value and bluff with hands like AJo, A3s and 87s. You bet #93 of your #213 combinations, of which 58% are for value. This equates to a 44% c-bet.

Your c-bet range is: KK+, 55-33, QdQc, QhQc, QsQc, JdJc, JhJc, JsJc, ATs+, A5s-A2s, 97s, 87s, 76s, KcQc, KcJc, QcJc, KcTc, QcTc, JcTc, Jc9c, Tc9c, Tc8c, 9c8c, AcKd, AcKh, AcKs, AdQh, AdQs, AhQd, AhQs, AsQd, AsQh, AdJh, AdJs, AhJd, AhJs, AsJd, AsJh (#93)

On 543m your range hits a lot of strong hands. You have #16 flush combinations, #6 straights and #9 sets: around 15% nut hands. Your opponent hits #6 flush combinations but no sets or straights: around 6% nut hands. This means your top range is stronger than his is. You thus have a wide value range. Your bluffs have middling equity against the calling range of your opponent, so you therefore have a balanced VB-Ratio. (However your range isn't split into only a value- and bluff range since you have a flowing equity transition.)

Flop
Favouring Range	Villain (BB)	Hero (MP)
#C-Bet of #total	#41 / #188	#93 / #213
C-bet frequency	21%	44%
C-Bet #Value + #Bluff	#31 + #10	#54 + #39
Value part	76%	58%
C-Bet Range	KK+, JJ-TT, AQs, J9s, T9s, 98s, AQo	KK+, 55-33, QdQc, QhQc, QsQc, JdJc, JhJc, JsJc, ATs+, A5s-A2s, 97s, 87s, 76s, KcQc, KcJc, QcJc, KcTc, QcTc, JcTc, Jc9c, Tc9c, Tc8c, 9c8c, AcKd, AcKh, AcKs, AdQh, AdQs, AhQd, AhQs, AsQd, AsQh, AdJh, AdJs, AhJd, AhJs, AsJd, AsJh

On the villain favouring flop you c-bet fewer hands than on the hero favouring flop.

Factor 4: Bad playability on future streets - tighter value, fewer bluffs.

The playability of your hands on following streets influences your betting range as well.

A board on which your playability on the turn and/or river is bad increases the EV of the range of your opponent, you therefore can only seldom bet.

A board on which your playability on the turn and/or river is good increases the EV of your range, so you can bet more often.

The playability of your value hands depends on how often you can keep value betting on the following streets. If you have strong value hands that can still value bet on the next streets and seldom lose, then their playability is good. If you have weak value hands that have to check on the next streets, their playability is bad.

Your opponent needs a higher success rate when bluff catching if he is confronted with a lot of bets on the following streets. You therefore play a bluff heavier VB-Ratio when you have good playability with your value and bluff hands.

Equally, your opponent needs a lower success rate when bluff catching if he is confronted with fewer bets on following streets. You therefore play a more value heavy VB-Ratio when your value and bluff hands have bad playability.

You can see this in the following examples:

Preflop: Hero is MP with /
Hero raises to $30, 3 folds, BB calls $20

Flop: ($65) (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero?

BB calls with the known range: QQ-66, AJs+, KQs, JTs, T9s, AQo+, KQo (8%, #102)

He calls a pot size c-bet with QQ, 88-77, AJs+, JTs, T9s, AQo+, #47 of #87, which equates to 46% "fold-to-cbet".

Hand with bad playability:

Preflop: Hero is MP with
Hero raises to $30, 3 folds, BB calls $20

Flop: ($65) (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero checks 

66 has 19% equity against the calling range of the BB. With 46% fold equity you have a positive bet and check-down EV of +13% of the pot, so betting is better than folding. 66 also has 28% equity against the entire preflop range of the BB, so the check and check-down EV is equal to +28% of the pot.

The playability after betting: You have two strong - but not unbeatable - set outs. On top of that you have four bluffable straight draw outs with the 5. You can't profitably bluff the straight draw outs 4, 9, and T. That makes a total of six cards with good playabilty. If you check the turn then you have bad playability on the river - you will never win the showdown unimproved with 66. The playability here then, is bad.

Hand with good playability:

Preflop: Hero is MP with
Hero raises to $30, 3 folds, BB calls $20

Flop: ($65) (2 Players)

BB checks, Hero c-bets $65

QJ has 17% equity against the calling range of the BB. With 46% fold equity you have a positive bet and check-down EV of +10% of the pot, so again, betting is better than folding. QJ also has 21% equity against the entire preflop range of the BB, so the check and check-down EV lies at +21% of the pot.

The playability after betting: You have nine bluffable flush draw outs. You also have six bluffable straight draw outs on both K and T but you can't profitably bluff the straight draw outs on a 9. In total that makes 15 cards with good playability. After checking the turn you have some playability on the river - you will sometimes win with a turned pair Q or J. The playability in this case is good.

So we see that hands with good playability can c-bet looser than hands with bad playabilty.

Summary

• Your optimal barrelling frequency minimizes your opponent's EV.
• Your value betting range and the VB-Ratio depend on:
  • Your bet size
  • The board texture
  • The number of strong hands in both of your ranges
  • The playability of your hands