Post-flop; When can you raise for value on the flop with a draw?

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On the flop, we differentiate made hands from drawing hands (and trash hand, which only have a small part in this article). For several reasons, both of these hands can be raised on the flop.

With made hands you raise on the flop because you want to extract value from your opponent. You therefore raise, in the assumption of having the best hand with which you want to be paid off. For made, but fragile hands, this is also done for protection, as your opponent will often fold a hand which could otherwise beat you when it gets improvement.

With drawing hands, or draws, there also are many situations in which you can raise, even if you’re fairly certain of not having the best hand at the moment.

In general, you have to ask yourself the following question when holding a good draw: Is there a possibility that I can win the hand without a showdown, because I can make all my opponents fold their hand?

This way of playing a hand is called a semi-bluff and is described in the bronze-section: Semi bluff and pure bluff

In the gold-section this subject is analysed even further: Semi-Bluffs

Whenever you see the opportunity to win a hand without a showdown, you should play a good draw as aggressively as possible.  Yet there are also situations in which you don’t see this opportunity to make all opponents fold, and should still play your draw aggressively and raise or even cap.

In the next part we'll show you what the requirements are for playing a draw aggressively on the flop, even when you're certain you can't bring all your opponents to fold.

When can you value raise with a draw?

When playing a draw on the flop, many factors influence your game. Was there a pre-flop aggressor? What has happened on the flop so far? What position do you have?

In addition to these influential factors, there is another, mathematical subject which influences how you should play your draw on the flop: The equity.

Your equity shows the likelihood of your holding the best hand on the river. With a draw, which you can assume isn’t the best hand at the moment, it is fairly easy to determine the equity. This results from the outs for making your hand the best one on the turn or the river. The more outs you have, the higher the equity.

When playing a strong draw, your equity will be so high, that you shouldn’t only ask yourself if you can call based upon the pot odds, but also whether you should increase the pot size by raising. This happens when the possibility of hitting one of your outs is so big, that you want to increase your profit by making the pot bigger.

Therefore, such a raise with a draw is called a raise for value, or value raise. Now we have to look what the requirements are for you to make a value raise.
Imagine being in following hand:

Preflop: Hero is BU with 8, 9
2 fold, UTG+2 calls, 4 fold, CO calls, Hero calls, SB folds, BB calls

Flop: (4.50 SB) 4, J, 2 (4 players)
BB bets, UTG+2 calls, CO calls, Hero?

Preflop is a standard call, following the Starting Hand Chart. On the flop you obviously can’t fold with your flush draw. The question you should therefore ask yourself is: Call or raise?

Viewed mathematically, we’re talking about a positive expected value (=EV) after your raise. The calculation for this on the flop is:

EV(Raise) = total increased pot size * equity of your hand – additional costs for a raise

This results in: EV(Raise) > 0, if:

Total increased pot size * equity of your hand > additional costs for a raise

How can we define this part in a more formal way?

Total increased pot size: This is the total of all raises which are added to the pot. This includes your and the opponent’s bets. If you're playing against 3 opponents on the flop, who all call your raise, you'll have 4 small bets (SB) on the flop; one from each opponent and your own SB.

Keep in mind that only the amount paid here, the one caused by the raise, has already been invested by your opponents and the point is to decide whether or not you should put in a second bet or not.

Additional costs for a flop raise: The additional cost for a raise is always one SB and not two, as you might suspect. This is because you'll call anyway. We should only consider the extra added SB for the raise.

Equity of your hand: Your equity is the probability of you hitting one of your outs on or before the river. The more outs you have, the higher the equity of your hand.

Just like with odds & outs, it is easiest to look at the most important draws and their accompanying equity, so you can easily decide whether a value raise is possible or not.

The strongest draws we can play on the flop in Hold’em, are:

• An open-ended straight draw
• A flush draw
• A combination of these draws (“Monster draw”)

Notice: The equity reflects the chance of hitting one of your outs on or before the river. The equity calculated is based on your staying in the hand until the river, because of draws with 8 or more outs being so strong.

How many opponents do you need for a value raise?

With aid of equity, you're now able to calculate the amount of opponents needed for making a value raise.

We assume all players who have already bet or called on the flop will stay in the hand and won't fold for another SB against your raise. This means the total increase in pot size is the same as the amount of players on the flop.

Once you have all the required values, you can put them in the formula mentioned above. When you get a positive EV, you can raise for value. If the EV is negative, you can't. However, in such a case you shouldn't simply fold your hand, but continue playing based on odds and outs. With strong draws you'll just call if a raise for value isn't possible.

Back to our previous situation:

Preflop: Hero is BU with 8, 9
2 fold, UTG+2 calls, 4 fold, CO calls, Hero calls, SB folds, BB checks

Flop: (4.50 SB) 4, J, 2 (4 players)
BB bets, UTG+2 calls, CO calls, Hero raise or call?

We'll use our formula again:

EV(Raise) = total increased pot size * equity of your hand - additional costs for a raise

This results in: EV(Raise) > 0, if:

Total increased pot size * equity of your hand > additional costs for a raise

Now we calculate the variables in order to see whether a flop raise has a positive EV.

Total increased pot size on the flop: You're playing against three players on the flop. After the bet from the BB both UTG+2 and CO have called. Normally, all opponents would call after another bet, in case we raised. The total increased pot size on the flop therefore is 4 SB; 3 from our opponents, who called our raise and 1 SB we've invested ourselves.

Additional costs: 1 SB

Equity of your hand: You have 9 outs with the flush draw on the flop, making your equity 35%. In decimals this is 0.35, meaning:

EV(Raise) = total increased pot size * equity of your hand - additional costs for a raise

EV(Raise) = 4 SB * 0,35 – 1 SB = 1,40 SB – 1SB = + 0,40 SB

As you can see, you have a positive Expected Value here, when you raise your flush draw on the flop against 3 players. In position, you can and should raise on this flop.

Flop: (4.50 SB) 4, J, 2 (4 players)
BB bets, UTG+2 calls, CO calls, Hero raises, BB calls UTG+2 calls, CO calls.

Because we've looked at our example a little bit closer, we can now calculate how many opponents we need when holding a typical draw, to be able to raise on the flop based on our equity.

EV(Raise) = total increased pot size * equity of your hand - additional costs for a raise

Heads-up:

Equity = 31% = 0,31
Total increased pot size = 2 SB
EV(Raise) = 2 SB * 0,31 – 1 SB = - 0,38 SB

The Expected Value for a raise on the flop, sitting heads-up, is below 0. Therefore you can't raise for value against one opponent, holding an OESD

3-handed:

Equity = 31% = 0,31
Total increased pot size = 3 SB
EV(Raise) = 3 SB * 0,31 – 1 SB = - 0,07 SB

The Expected Value for a raise with an OESD stays below 0, even against 2 opponents. A raise for value isnt an option here.

4-Handed:

Equity = 31% = 0,31
Total increased pot size = 4 SB
EV(Raise) = 4 SB * 0,31 – 1 SB = 1,24 SB – 1 SB = + 0,24 SB

Versus 3 opponents the EV is a little bit above 0. This shows you can raise for value with an OESD, when you are at least up against 3 opponents who would call your raise.

Heads-up:

Equity = 35% = 0,35
Total increased pot size = 2 SB
EV(Raise) = 2 SB * 0,35 – 1 SB = 0,7 SB – 1 SB = - 0,30 SB

Just like with an OESD, the Expected Value for a raise, holding a flush draw on the flop in a heads-up situation is below 0. A value raise isn't an option here.

3-handed:

Equity = 35% = 0,35
Total increased pot size = 3 SB
EV(Raise) = 3 SB * 0,35 – 1 SB = 1,05 SB – 1 SB = + 0,05 SB

4-handed:

EV(Raise) = 4 SB * 0,35 – 1 SB = 1,40 SB – 1SB = + 0,40 SB

As you can see, it is possible to raise flush draw for value when you're up against 2 opponents who would both call your raise.

One out (=4% equity to the river) between an OESD and a flush draw makes the difference against 2 opponents. Where you can raise a flush draw for value, you can't with an OESD.

FLUSH DRAW + GUTSHOT

When holding a flush draw and a gutshot, the same rule applies as with a flush draw: You can raise for value against 2 opponents, but you can't when sitting heads-up.

The monster draw is a combination of an open-ended straight draw and a flush draw, making a total of 15 outs and an equity of 54%.

Heads-up:

Equity = 54% = 0,54
Total increased pot size = 3 SB
EV(Raise) = 2 SB * 0,54 – 1 SB = 1,08 SB – 1 SB = + 0,08 SB

The monster draw, with its equity of more then 50%, has superior strength; You can play these hands aggressively against any opponent and still have a positive expectation.

Basically all the rules apply to any re raises you can make. In addition to a value raise, there is of course also the possibility of a value cap. This would be an option if you have already raised for value and another player 3-bets you which is called by a third player.

Back to the first example:

Preflop: Hero is BU with 8, 9
2 fold, UTG+2 calls, 4 fold, CO calls, Hero calls, SB folds, BB calls

Flop: (4.50 SB) 4, J, 2 (4 players)
BB bets, UTG+2 calls, CO calls, Hero raises, BB 3bets, UTG+2 calls, CO calls, Hero caps!

Obviously, the rule concerning the use of your equity to your advantage applies here too, as raising/capping would give you a theoretical long-term win of 0.4 SB.

As we have now looked at the different strong draws, it is possible to formulate a simple rule, which will help you to decide whether or not you can raise for value.

If you're playing in a 4-handed pot on the flop (against 3 other players), your part in the additional pot would be 25% if everyone calls. With 8 outs and a 31% equity, you can raise for value here. 3-handed you would invest 33% of the additional pot and can therefore only raise if you have 33% or more equity. This means you would need at least 9 outs, the amount you would have with a flush draw.

When sitting heads-up you'll always pay half of the additional bets, meaning you would always need at least 50% equity to raise profitably. This is the case with 14 outs (~51%) or more.

This is what it looks like in an overview:

How do you play on the turn?

A raise for value is only possible on the flop (with very few exceptions). If you want, you can also calculate which circumstances you would need on the turn to make a value raise. But what happens if, after your value raise or value cap, you don't hit your draw on the turn? How should you continue to play? In general, you should ask yourself the same question here: Can I bring my opponent to fold?

Since you're assuming none of your opponents folds to a value raise, because you want all of them to call your raise for it to be for value, you'll mostly see the turn with 2 or more opponents. This means you have to play your draw passively after value raising the flop if you haven't hit one of your outs.

When in position, you're able to get a free card, but also without position you should play your hand passively. The disadvantage here is that an attentive player is able to see that you're on a draw. This shouldn't bother you though, because you've gotten your value on the flop. Additionally, if your draw completes on the river, your opponent will generally not fold due to the large pot.

Apart from that, you can't assume all opponents can read your hand perfectly. Some are even extra careful, because they suspect a trap after this much action on the flop.

Let's have another look at our example-hand:

Preflop: Hero is BU with 8, 9
2 fold, UTG+2 calls, 4 fold, CO calls, Hero calls, SB folds, BB calls

Flop: (4.50 SB) 4, J, 2 (4 players)
BB bets, UTG+2 calls, CO calls, Hero raises, BB 3 bets, UTG+2 calls, CO calls, Hero caps, BB calls, UTG+2 calls, CO calls

Turn: (10.25 BB) Q (4 players)
BB checks, UTG+2 checks, CO checks, Hero checks

In case you were not on the button and had opponents behind you, you should also check/called in this spot. The goal of this article was to explain the principle of a raise for value on the flop. Playing draws on the flop and on the turn as well provides many possibilities, but requires a seperate article, which will soon be added to the silver section.

Conclusion

You have learned that, given certain circumstances on the flop, strong draws can be played aggressively even when you're sure you haven't got the best hand or you don't see any chance in bringing your opponent to fold. You'll hit one of your outs on the turn or the river often enough for it to be profitable, in the long run, to make the pot larger on the flop.

A raise for value with a draw is also possible on the turn, but because there's only one card to come, draws have a lot less value then they had on the the flop. This means a raise for value on the turn is only an option with a monster draw. You now possess an additional mathematical tool, the ability to make the right decision in any situation.

Additionally, this way of playing makes it harder for your opponent to make a read on you. This belongs under the important topic of "balancing" and it is further explained in the Gold and Platinum sections.

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Related articles: Beginner: Flop play Postflop: The mathematics of poker - Odds & Outs Evaluating draws on the flop Discussion forum: Feedback thread for this article