Floats (1) - Theory
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Floats (1) - Theory I
by MiiWiin
In today's column, you will learn more about floats. They are primarily understood as "turn bluffs", but there are many exceptions to this. The move itself brings many benefits if used against the right opponents.
You are about to find out why a float can be profitable and against what kind of opponents you should use it. During the course of this column, we will shed light on six important aspects, and today's article will focus on the first three.
What is a float?
First of all, we should have a look at the glossary:
A float is a move where an aggressor is called so that a player may retake the initiative in a later round, provided that the original aggressor allows it. It is a broad term. The call on the flop can be a bluff call, smooth call, or a call for pot control. The term is often used in sense of a bluff.
This definition describes the purpose of a float fairly well, because it is no longer just considered as a pure bluff nowadays. The play "call flop/bet turn" as such counts as a float, even if the given player has a good made hand.
Why float at all?
A float involves all considerations that a good player should keep in mind at all times:
- Play with a positive expected value
- Bet sizes / Maths
- Semi-bluffs / Draw play
- Pot control / Bluff induce
- Balancing / Deception
- Value extraction
We can subdivide these aspects into two sections. The first three solely deal with your own play and analyse the spot from an isolated point of view: Do you have enough fold equity, is your bet size correct, how do you play your draw?
The other three points mainly deal with your play in general: How do your floats appear to your opponents and how do you have to adapt your game in the following rounds if you float a lot and get caught (or don't get caught)?
The move as such can already be +EV if your opponent often gives up on the turn, but contibets (too) many flops.
It's rarely a good idea to try a pure float, i.e. a call on the flop without any outs whatsoever, solely in the hope that Villain checks the turn and you get to directly take down the pot with a bet.
In most cases, you should make sure that you have outs, and that's why your general draw play is important as well. How do you play your over-cards and/or 8 and 9-outers? Although floats are often planned in advance, you still have the option to take a free card at any time.
It's also obvious that you are applying pot control if you call the flop and therefore induce a bluff on the turn every now and then. You don't really like that when you sit on a pure float, however it is an important factor in terms of balancing. If you float a lot, your opponents won't believe you when you have a strong hand.
In this context, value extraction is an important factor, even though you might not be able to carry it out until later hands. Therefore, it's not so bad if some of your floats get called every now and then - you just have to make sure that you extract value in the next rounds then. The opponents are going to give you much less credit.
Let's look at the first point. When can you make a profitable float?
It can vary which opponents are most suitable for this, but of course a passive player who likes to call down a lot is not the perfect victim. Better suited are tight players who contibet too much, but rarely 2nd barrel.
You kill two birds with one stone here: On the one hand you defend yourself against his frequent contibets, to which you would otherwise have to fold a lot. On the other hand, you will often create so much fold equity that the move as such will already have a positive expected value.
Stats that are important here are:
- General stats about Villain (VPIP/PFR/AF/WTS/…)
- Contibet flop and turn
- Fold-to-turn bet
- Check/raise turn
The general stats are quite self-explanatory. You don't want to bluff a lot against an 80/10 player with a WTS of over 50, since you will often not be able to create enough fold equity.
The contibet stats on the flop and the turn are decisive factors, the flop contibet stat will often be over 70 and the 2nd barrel stat below 40. This tells you that the players don't put much thought into their game; they contibet nearly every flop, but no longer try to fight for the pot if they encounter resistance on the turn.
They will often be willing to check/fold directly and leave the pot to you. Another important aspect here can be his aggression, which is overly big on the flop, but significantly drops on the turn.
The fold to turn bet and check/raise turn stats help you avoid to tap into a trap of your opponent. Perhaps you are misjudging your opponent, he does not play check/fold on the turn, but takes advantage of your aggression in order to check/raise. This is of course not part of your plan at all.
The bottom line is: It's not enough for you to find out how frequently your opponent checks the turn, but you also want to know how often he check/folds!
PartyPoker $25 NL Hold'em (6-handed)
Stacks & Stats
MP ($25)
CO ($25)
UTG ($25) (17 / 14 / 5.0 / 1.6 / 72 / 39 / 50 / 2)
(VPIP / PFR / Flop-AF / Turn-AF / Cbet Flop / Cbet Turn / Fold-to-Turnbet / checkraise Turn)
BB ($25)
SB ($25)
Hero ($25)
Preflop: Hero is BU with 4
, 5
UTG raises $1.00, 2 folds, Hero calls $1.00, 2 folds
Flop: ($2.25) 8
, 8, J
(2 players)
UTG bets $1.50, Hero calls $1.50
Turn: ($5.25) K (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $3.00, UTG folds
In this example, you are up against a rather passive opponent. However, he usually bets the flop once just to give up quite quickly during the later course of the hand.
He folds to bets in 50% of cases on the turn, but he rarely check/raises. You can therefore realistically assume to have a fold equity of at least 50% and this is of course enough to make a profitable raise here.
Decisive factors for the success of a bluff are the bet sizes and, resulting from that, the required probability.
However, this generally does not play a big role when it comes to floating. The pot in a normal raised pot will usually be between 16-24BB big on the turn, depending on Villain's continuation bet size, which you have no influence upon.
The bet size for a float should usually be around 2/3 of the pot size, so that you need around 40% fold equity. This value can vary somewhat, since Villain in Example 1 for instance will usually check/fold. A smaller bet would suffice here. This will rarely affect the fold equity, but the bet would of course would not have to work out as often.
We are still analysing a given spot from an isolated point of view. In the following scenario, you will not have pure air, i.e. nothing as in Example 1, but you have a few outs:
PartyPoker $25 NL Hold'em (6-handed)
Stacks & Stats
MP ($25)
CO ($25)
UTG ($25) (17 / 14 / 5.0 / 1.6 / 72 / 39 / 50 / 2)
(VPIP / PFR / Flop-AF / Turn-AF / Cbet Flop / Cbet Turn / Fold-to-Turnbet / checkraise Turn)
BB ($25)
SB ($25)
Hero ($25)
Preflop: Hero is BU with 6 , 5
UTG raises $1.00, 2 folds, Hero calls $1.00, 2 folds
Flop: ($2.25) 7, 4, J (2 players)
UTG bets $1.50, Hero calls $1.50
Turn: ($5.25) K (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero...
Up until the turn you should play just like you did in Example 1. However, you have a good draw this time. Apart from the open-ended straight draw you also have a back door flush draw on the flop.
As you clearly see here, you already have to consider the plan to float when you are on the flop. You would also have the option to (semi) bluff raise on the flop. If you decide to call, you will usually have four options on the turn:
- You hit, Villain bets.
- You hit, Villain does not bet.
- You don't hit, Villain bets.
- You don't hit, Villain checks.
Since you can usually expect to create a lot of fold equity against this player on the turn, three of these options on the turn are to your liking. The only thing that's not really part of your plan would be to get a 2nd barrel when unimproved.
If you hit, you can go for pure value play. If you don't hit and Villain checks, you can either float or take the free card.
The decision is clear against this opponent: Bet - even without outs, it will have a positive expected value (see above).
The success of such a bet does therefore not only rest on fold equity alone. Even if you get a call, you will have some equity left.
You should play your draws aggressively in position if you think you can generate enough fold equity and the turn brings a good card (scare card, such as an over-card for example).
Good equity should not be a reason not to bet. Why would you want to take a free card if you can successfully play your semi-bluff?
If you can't expect any fold equity on the turn, for example when up against opponents who love to call, or against opponents who like to trap or check/raise, the situation looks different.
Note:
Calculating the overall success of a float is relatively complicated, since you will barely be able to estimate these figures while you play. You may know from experience how much equity you have against top pair, but you wouldn't really expect Villain to check/fold top pair in this spot. Your overall equity against his range is therefore difficult to figure out.
If you are interested in such mathematical games however, we recommend Sammy's article "Floating" on this topic.
He supports the theory with the maths. Let's have a look at two brief examples:
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1.) The EV of a float. The formula considers whether or not Villain checks the turn at all.
EV = P(Turn check) * {P(Fold) * [Pot(Turn) - Call(Flop)] - [1 - P(Fold)] * [Bet(Turn) + Call(Flop)]} - [1 - P(Turn check)] * Call(Flop)
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2.) The EV of a float. The formula considers that Hero has additional equity.
EV = [1 - P(Draw hits)] * {P(Turn check) * {P(Fold) * [Pot(Turn) - Call(Flop)] - [1 - P(Fold)] * [Bet(Turn) + Call(Flop)]}- [1 - P(Turn check)] * Call(Flop)} + P(Draw hits) * {P(Turn check) * {P(Fold) * [Pot(Turn) - Call(Flop)] +[1 - P(Fold)] * [Pot(Turn) + Pot(Turn) * Implied Factor * 2/3 - Call(Flop)]}+ [1 - P(Turn check)] * [Pot(Turn) - Call(Flop) + Implied Factor * Pot(Turn)]}
You can find a more detailed illustration of these calculations and considerations in the article linked above. They will not be analysed any further in this column.
| » SUMMARY |
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In this part, we looked at the float from an isolated perspective. When and against what opponents does this move make sense, how often does it have to work out and how do you implement your draw play in all of this? We will not deal with the mathematical background any further. For more information on this, you can refer to Sammy's article, which is linked above. The goal of this series is more to analyse practical considerations on the topic (but of course the maths cannot be completely excluded in this approach). In the following part, we will implement the float into your game, on the one hand you want to balance your overall play on the turn and on the other hand try to adapt your value play. |
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