TAG Ranges Preflop (4) - 4-Bet Ranges

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TAG Ranges Preflop (4) - 4-Bet Ranges

by MiiWiin

In the fourth and final part of our column about possible TAG ranges in preflop play, we want to throw the spotlight on 4-bets. They're an aggressive play to extract value or use as a bluff.

After a 4-bet, you need to decide if you're ready to play for a stack or not. You should know at this point which ranges you can run against in such spots.

Prerequisites

You'll be dealing with the following player:

(24 / 21 / 2.5) [VPIP / PFR / AF]
(14 / 18 / 27 / 37 / 20 / 10) [Openraise EP / MP / CO / BU / SB / BB]
(0 / 2 / 6 / 10 / 7 / 9) [3-bet EP / MP / CO / BU / SB / BB]
(2.4 / 2.9 / 3.1 / 3.9 / 3.1 / 2.4) [4-bet-Range EP / MP / CO / BU / SB / BB]

This player's 4-betting ranges are within the normal scope. If he has position (CO or BU), he'll quite regularly go for the 4-bet option. However, out of position, this looks like a clear value range.

This happens when the player open raises from this position and, in his opinion, gets 3-bet lightly.

Basic ranges

Which hands are even suitable for a 4-bet?

Whereas you have to make a lot of assumptions with 3-betting ranges, 4-bets are generally very polarised. Villain can't expect that you'll make a call against a 4-bet on his part, therefore the pot will be played out postflop.

He'll assume one of two actions on your part: either fold or push.

Thus, it only makes sense if your opponent has the lines 4-bet/fold or 4-bet/broke in his repertoire. Put simply: he'll either 4-bet/fold as a bluff or play 4-bet/broke for value.

Again you have to ask yourself: how you play yourself? How does your opponent perceive you? Do you generally 3-bet a lot or not so much?

The tighter you play, the less obliged your opponent will feel to fight back. If you only 3-bet 5% of the time, a large part of this will be for value, so 4-bet bluffs against this won't really be worth it.

However, if you just toss 3-bets around, the entire table won't let it go for long. The result: if your opponent is acting in position, he'll call your 3-bet more often or make a 4-bet, if he plays out of position, he'll generally 4-bet (or fold, of course).

It's not particularly hard to give a value 4-bet range:

QQ+, AK (2.56%)

Now take a look at the position stats. You'll notice that your opponent doesn't even 4-bet the full value range from UTG and in the BB.

This doesn't mean you can completely rule out bluffs, however, if you only 4-bet 2.4% of hands and at the same time don't 4-bet AK and QQ every time, you won't be particularly inclined to regularly 4-bet as a pure bluff.

However, in the CO and on the BU, the 4-bet stat increases, most interestingly on the BU at 3.9%.

Here you need to ask yourself the question: which 1.4% will he 4-bet in addition here?

First of all, you can assume a wider value range:

TT+, AQs+, AKo (3.77%)

The second option: your opponent polarises his range, plays for value with QQ+/AK, but only calls your 3-bets with the other hands. This would mean that the remaining 1.4% would be a bluff range:

QQ+, 22, AKs, A9s-A7s, AKo (3,92%)

It's very important for you to find out what type of player he is. You can do this even without a showdown. With his wide value range, type 1 has no 4-bet folds in his range, whereas type 2 will 4-bet fold more frequently.

Why is this important for you to know?

Your options

If you're confronted with a 4-bet, you only have two options: either you fold or you push.

If you push, you have two possible aims:

• Your opponent folds part of his range and you win the pot straight away.
• Your opponent calls your push and you want to have reasonable equity.

Mathematics

Unfortunately, you can't get around this point. After your opponent's 4-bet, you need to work out the expected value of your shove.

If you fold it will be 0. The EV of the shove needs to be above zero. This means two points are interesting for the expected value:

• How high is the fold equity?
• How high is the equity when it comes down to all-in?

PartyPoker $25 NL Hold'em (6-handed)

Stacks & Stats
UTG ($25)
MP ($25)
CO ($25)
BU ($25) (24/21)
Hero ($25)
BB ($25) Rock

Preflop: Hero is SB with
3 folds, BU raises $1.00, Hero raises $3.25, 1 fold, BU raises $7.50, Hero...

Here the question is: is the EV of the push greater than zero?

The assumptions have been made, Villain 4-bets here:

QQ+/AK (2.56%) for value, he'll go broke with that.
A7s-A9s, 22 (1.36%) as a bluff, he 4-bets/folds these hands.

This means you have to add together two different expected values.

For this, you need the existing pot, as well as the fold equity.

Up to now the pot is: $1.00 + $3.25 + $1.00 (BB) + $6.50 = $11.75

The fold equity is: 1.36% / 3.92% = 34.7%

There's a remaining 65.3%, in which Villain will call your all-in.

At the end the pot would be: $25 + $25 + $1.00 (BB) – Rake ($2, estimated) = $49.00

Your equity:

Equity calculation is as follows:

Pot: 11.75
Remaining stack: 21.75
P(fold): 0.347
P(call) = 1 – P(fold)
Equity: 0.3619
Pot after all-in call: 49

The EV push:

P(fold)*(remaining stack + pot) + p(call)*Equity * 49 – remaining stack

(Remaining stack + pot): if Villain folds, our stack ends here
Equity * 49: if Villain calls, our stack ends here
P(fold)*(remaining stack + pot) + p(call)*Equity * 49: our weighted (expected) stack depending on the hand

EV(push) =  P(fold)*(remaining stack + pot) + p(call)*equity * 49 – remaining stack = 0.347*(21.75 + 11.75) + (0.653 * 0.3619 * 49) - 21.75 = 11.6245 + 11.5797 – 21.75 = 1.4542

As you can see, the push against his range has a positive expected value of +$1.45

Further examples

Now you know how it works in principle. Nonetheless, you should look at another two examples. In example 2 we take the same conditions as above, but this time, you're holding AQo. In the final example, there's a new opponent and a new range.

PartyPoker $25 NL Hold'em (6-handed)

Stacks & Stats
UTG ($25)
MP ($25)
CO ($25)
BU ($25) (24/21)
Hero ($25)
BB ($25) Rock

Preflop: Hero is SB with
3 folds, BU raises $1.00, Hero raises $3.25, 1 fold, BU raises $7.50, Hero...

The conditions are clear, so let's get down to the calculation.

Pot: 11.75
Remaining stack: 21.75
P(fold): 0.347
P(call) = 1 – p(fold)
Equity: 0.2442
Pot after an all-in call: 49

EV(push) = p(fold)*(remaining stack + pot) + p(call)*equity * 49 – remaining stack = 0.347*(21.75 + 11.75) + (0.653 * 0.2442 * 49) - 21.75 = 11.6245 + 7.8137 – 21.75 -2.312

In this example, a push has an EV of -2.31$. This speaks in favour of a fold.

PartyPoker $25 NL Hold'em (6-handed)

Stacks & Stats
UTG ($25)
MP ($25)
CO ($25)
BU ($25) (4-bet range BU: 5.88%)
Hero ($25)
BB ($25) rock

Preflop: Hero is SB with
3 folds, BU raises $1.00, Hero raises $3.25, 1 fold, BU raises $7.50, Hero...

Now you're dealing with a different opponent. He'll have significantly more bluffs in his range, however he'll also go broke with a wider range.

Assumption:

Value range: JJ+, AQs+, AKo (3.32%)

Bluff range: A9s-A6s/22-44 (2.56%)

Can you go broke with pocket nines?

The pot size is the same, however the fold equity as well as your equity against his all-in range has changed.

Fold equity: 2.56% / 5.88% = 0.435

Pot: 11.75
Remaining stack: 21.75
P(fold): 0.435
P(call) = 1 – P(fold)
Equity: 0.3494
Pot after all-in call: 49

EV(push) = P(fold)*(remaining stack + pot) + P(call)*Equity * 49 – remaining stack = 0.435*(21.75 + 11.75) + (0.565 * 0.3494 * 49) - 21.75 = 14.5725 + 9.6731 – 21.75 = +2.4956

In this example your push has an EV of +$2.50. This makes it the most profitable of all spots in which to go broke.

As you've seen, even establishing the 4-betting range is something you can master, in order to carry out the most precise equity calculations possible.

The higher your opponent's 4-bet stat, the more he'll fold to your push (good for you) and the weaker his actual broke range will be (also good for you).

You need to be aware of this.

LINKS
Related articles: TAG Ranges Preflop (1) - Raising Ranges TAG Ranges Preflop (2) - Calling Ranges TAG Ranges Preflop (3) - 3-Bet Ranges