Exploits (1): Auto-Profit

Auto-profit is an exploit which takes advantage of your opponent folding too often. Starting at a certain fold equity, you can bet and raise with every hand profitably.

In this lesson, you will learn to recognize auto-profit situations, when auto-profit is most important and how to continue playing after a call.

Auto-profit is a bet or a raise that is profitable with every hand due to fold equity.

Finding auto-profit spots: Compare fold equities

In order to determine whether or not you have auto-profit in a situation, you calculate and compare the required fold equity with the actual fold equity.

Step 1: Calculate the required fold equity

The required fold equity tells you in what percentage of all cases your opponent has to fold for you to have auto-profit. You calculate it as follows:

Required fold equity = Bet size / (Bet size + Pot size)

Step 2: Calculate the actual fold equity

The actual fold equity tells you how often your opponent actually folds. You calculate it by dividing the number of fold combos by the total number of combos:

Actual fold equity = #Fold / #Total

If the actual fold equity is greater than or equal to the required fold equity, you have auto-profit in that situation and you can profitably bet and raise.

You have auto-profit in a situation if the actual fold equity is greater than or equal to the required fold equity.

Use stats to determine the actual fold equity

Stats can be helpful when determining the actual fold equity. Particularly, this is true pre-flop for the "fold to 3-bet" value and the "fold to steal" value. Always use the specific values for the situation you are in.

For example, if you are thinking about 3-betting against the BU out of the SB the general "fold to 3-bet" value is not specific enough and you should use the specific value for this situation instead.

Also, post-flop stats such as "fold to continuation bet", "went to showdown" and "fold continuation bet to raise" are helpful in determining the actual fold equity.

Especially post-flop, you should pay attention to the following: the higher the skill level of your opponent, the more the frequency of him folding will depend on the respective situation. This includes the board texture, the stack sizes, the positions of the players involved and other factors.

Typical auto-profit situations pre-flop and post-flop

Pre-flop, auto-profit is possible in many situations. In the following table, you find typical situations and the corresponding required fold equities:

The most commonly occuring auto-profit situation post-flop is the continuation bet. Depending on the size of your bet, it must work at different frequencies. In the table below, you will find different bet sizes and the corresponding required fold equities:

Auto-profit pre-flop: SB open raise

Many opponents fold so often in the big blind that you can profitably open raise with every hand out of the small blind first in. In order to calculate how high the folding frequency of the BB must be for an open raise with 72o to be profitable, you use the known formula:

Required fold equity = Bet size / (Bet size + Pot size)

2.5bb / (2.5bb + 1.5bb) = 2.5bb / 4bb = 0.625

Your opponent must fold pre-flop in more than 62.5% of all cases for you to have auto-profit. If your opponent calls or 3-bets less than 37.5% (100% - 62.5%) you can open raise any two cards, which includes 72o, and you are encouraged to do so.

Notice that in this example you do not invest 3bb but 2.5bb since you already posted the small blind (3bb - 0.5bb = 2.5bb).

Auto-profit post-flop: Continuation bet on the flop

NL20 6-max Game
100BB Stacks
BU: TAG

Pre-flop: Hero is CO with
2 folds, Hero raises to $0.60, BU calls $0.60, 2 folds

Flop: ($1.5) (2 Players)
Hero bets $1

You risk $1 in order to win $1.50. Putting these values in the formula for the required fold equity, you get:

Required fold equity = $1 / ($1 + $1.50) = 40%

So if the actual fold equity is 40% or higher, you can profitably continuation bet.

To calculate the actual fold equity, you must first assign a range to your opponent. Your opponent is a TAG and you assign the following average range to him pre-flop:

Average range TAG on the BU: JJ-22, AQ-AT, KQ-KJ, KTs, QJ, QTs, JTs (#124)

Out of this range, he folds the following hands on the flop:

	Call or raise:  JJ-44, AQ, KQ, QJ, QTs (#72)
	Fold: 33-22, AJs-ATs, KJs-KTs, JTs, AJo-ATo, KJo (#52)

His total range consists of 124 combos. Out of that, he folds 52 on the flop. Your fold equity therefore is:

Fold equity = #Fold / #Total = #52/#124 = 42%

Your opponent folds 42% of his range. Since your opponent only needs to fold in 40% of all cases for you to have auto-profit, you can continuation bet your entire range as a bluff, including AJo.

Continue playing only strong hands after a call

It is important to continue playing very carefully and with a strong range after an unsuccessful steal attempt.

If your opponent folds so much that you automatically make profit with a bet or a raise, then the range he continues playing with is strong. So do not give away the profit you achieved with the steal by bluffing too much on later streets against a strong range.

Summary

When you have auto-profit in a situation, your opponent folds so often that you can profitably bet or raise with any two cards.

Using the following formula, you calculate the fold equity required for auto-profit:

Required fold equity = Bet size / (Bet size + Pot size)

If your fold equity exceeds this value, you can bluff with every hand in your range. You calculate the actual fold equity as follows:

Fold equity = #Fold / #Total

After an unsuccessful steal attempt, you should continue playing very carefully and with a strong range.