Overcards in 3-Bet Pots (3) - Possible Plays as a Preflop Aggressor

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Now you've learned how to estimate equity as well as the required conditions for this spot, it's time to look more closely at some possible plays: what can you actually do?

Should you fold, bluff or semi-bluff, or could you even play for value? This article looks at your options.

Options

The options available to you depend on the preflop aggression and your position.

There are four possible situations to determine between:

• You're preflop aggressor in position
• You're preflop aggressor out of position
• You're in position without the initiative
• You're out of position without the initiative

Your relative hand strength and the range of your opponent change depending on the action preflop and your position. Correspondingly, there are different lines you can choose.

Here we look at examples where you act as preflop aggressor, the last part will deal with examples where you don't have the initiative.

You are preflop aggressor in position

PartyPoker $25 NL Hold'em (6-handed)

Stacks & Stats
UTG ($25)
MP ($25)
CO ($25) (21 / 15 / 2.5 / 59 / 10) (VPIP / PFR / AF / ft3-bet / 4-bet)
Hero ($25)
SB ($25)
BB ($25)

Preflop: Hero is BU with A , K
2 folds, CO raises $1.00, Hero raises to $3.00, 2 folds, CO calls $3.00

Flop: ($6.25) 4, 4, 7 (2 players)
CO checks, Hero...

In principle, this spot is the one which will be the most profitable. You have the advantage in position of possibly getting information about Villain's hand, you can take your time deciding between bluff and value bets and you have the possibility of enjoying a free card.

Villain donks:

• Fold
• Call
• Raise

Villain checks:

• Bet
• Freecard

If Villain donks on the board above the question is, what hands can you give him? In principle, you should more or less rule out very strong hands.

Would your opponent play strong overhands like this? Why shouldn't he (want to) 4-bet them preflop but donk on the flop and still throw away weaker hands? Would a play like this with JJ-AA make sense?

What about 77 or even 4x? Here you also need to ask yourself the question: do you really think there's a possibility that Villain will play these hands like that? You shouldn't immediately assume this without more reads.

This makes this donk look quite weak. You might recognise this opponent from part 1 of this series, where we gave him a 3-bet calling range:

77+, AJs+, KQs, 87s, 76s, 65s, AQo+

Equity analysis
Board	7 4 4
	Equity	Win	Split	Loss	Hand
Player 1	60.80%	53.28%	15.04%	31.68%	77+, AJs+, KQs, 87s, 76s, 65s, AQo+
Player 2	39.2%	31.68%	15.04%	53.28%	A K

Now, let's remove JJ+ and 77, as you can't assume that these strong hands will choose a line like this:

Equity analysis
Board	7 4 4
	Equity	Win	Split	Loss	Hand
Player 1	51.84%	41.45%	20.78%	37.77%	88-TT, AJs+, KQs, 87s, 76s, 65s, AQo+
Player 2	48.16%	37.77%	20.78%	41.45%	A K

The bottom line is that you're in an acceptable position against this range on the flop. So a fold is out. In light of this, a call would be very plausible and mathematically correct. The decision here is, would a raise make sense?

Can 88-TT bet/fold here? What do KQ or AJ+ do? It's generally hard to say, however you should conclude that a raise can rarely be used for value and protection. The preferred line should be call, it's almost the same as a way ahead - way behind situation.

Now assume with the above board that Villain checks to you. You have the choice between a bet, where the lines bet/broke and bet/fold need to be weighed up before deciding on a bet, or alternatively, you give yourself a free card.

Based on your equity analysis, you can see that your hand is really good, however, it's difficult to categorise a bet as a bluff or value bet. Which better hand folds? Which worse hands pay out to you?

Moreover, you can't hold up against a check raise, so unfortunately a bet/broke isn't possible.

Villain would probably check raise 77+, 87s and AK in the above hand and AQs as a bluff (from your point of view).

Equity analysis
Board	7 4 4
	Equity	Win	Split	Loss	Hand
Player 1	70.4%	61.15%	18.49%	20.36%	88+, AQs+, 87s, AKo
Player 2	29.61%	20.36%	18.49%	61.15%	A K

If you bet just over half a pot on the flop (~$3.50), which is easily enough here, you would have to invest another $18.50 in the event of a check raise, for roughly a $50 pot. You won't get the required 37% equity.

This just leaves bet/fold, although there's only the hope here that Villain can really check/call hands like AQ, or possibly folds hands like 87s or 88-99 directly. Otherwise the bet in itself makes little sense.

That's why you should go for a check behind.

Turn play

The hand is rarely over on the flop. What happens on the turn? Here, the game starts again from the beginning. If Villain bets, consider if you can find a call for equity. Should Villain check, your thoughts should turn to the question of whether a bluff or value bet make sense. Always remember that with a marginal hand such as overcards, it will almost always be difficult to fulfill one of these two criteria.

Further examples:

PartyPoker $25 NL Hold'em (6-handed)

Stacks & Stats
UTG ($25)
MP ($25)
CO ($25) (13 / 10 / 1.5 / 68 / 8) (VPIP / PFR / AF / ft3-bet / 4-bet)
Hero ($25)
SB ($25)
BB ($25)

Preflop: Hero is BU with A , K
2 folds, CO raises $1.00, Hero raises to $3.00, 2 folds, CO calls $3.00

Flop: ($6.25) 3, T, J (2 players)
CO checks, Hero...

In this example you're playing against a very tight opponent, however, you've still opted for a 3-bet postflop.

Two fundamental things differ here:

Villains range is tighter on the flop, this is also something that was examined in part 1 and the bet was on 99+, AQs+, AKo.

Still, you've got more outs up your sleeve: as well as a gutshot draw, you've got a backdoor flush draw.

Where do you stand with your hand?

Equity analysis
Board	J T 3
	Equity	Win	Split	Loss	Hand
Player 1	60.71%	48.56%	24.3%	27.14%	99+, AQs+, AKo
Player 2	39.29%	27.14%	24.3%	48.56%	A K

Of course, you'll also lose equity against the considerably tighter range. In addition, a player like this will bluff less. Put simply: you can only call to a donk bet, a semi-bluff from raise would probably generate enough fold equity.

However, if the Villain checks the question is whether a bet is worth it. You can't rule out here that hands such as 99 or AQ/AK will be played directly as check/fold. You'll take the pot often enough here.

What happens if there's a check raise? Then you'll have to fold your nice hand, which would be a shame. With a check raise you can also give Villain a bluff (AKs), otherwise it will be a range of larger pocket pairs. As 99 could check/call now and again, we give the Villain a check raise range of AKs/TT+.

Equity analysis
Board	J T 3
	Equity	Win	Split	Loss	Hand
Player 1	72.72%	67.88%	9.67%	22.45%	TT+, AKs
Player 2	27.28%	22.45%	9.67%	67.88%	A K

Nice hands aside, you'll never get the 37% equity here. If you bet, unfortunately it's a bet/fold. So both options are conceivable, a check behind also makes more sense here, especially against a passive Villain postflop (few light call downs, few bluffs), as in this spot as well, a bet will seldom fulfill the bluff and value aspects.

PartyPoker $25 NL Hold'em (6-handed)

Stacks & Stats
UTG ($25)
MP ($25)
CO ($25) (60 / 16 / 0.7 / 40 / 0) (VPIP / PFR / AF / ft3-bet / 4-bet)
Hero ($25)
SB ($25)
BB ($25)

Preflop: Hero is BU with A , K
2 folds, CO raises $1.00, Hero raises to $3.00, 2 folds, CO calls $3.00

Flop: ($6.25) 3, 2, 8 (2 players)
CO checks, Hero...

Now a passive opponent who leans towards calling station. Up to now these players haven't been categorised, as it's impossible to generalise about their playing style.

Now take a look at this player: what's his calling range like for the 3-bet?

You can see yourself that this is almost impossible to analyse and depends on lots of assumptions that could be discussed at length. Nonetheless, it's worth a try:

16% will be open raised, which 16% is assumption number one. It doesn't have to be the top 16% of his range. However, some other assumptions are easy to tell. So we assume from

55+, A5s+, K9s+, QJs, A8o+, KJo+

he'll call 60% on a 3-bet to

66+, A9s+, KJs+, ATo+

You shouldn't change anything here, because that would simply be a guessing game too. There are also small pocket pairs (55-) or suited connectors here but you don't know that.

Where do you stand now with your hand?

Equity analysis
Board	8 3 2
	Equity	Win	Split	Loss	Hand
Player 1	46.67%	41.51%	10.32%	48.17%	66+, A9s+, KJs+, ATo+
Player 2	53.33%	48.17%	10.32%	41.51%	A K

Suddenly you've even become the favourite in this hand. If your opponent donks, a raise will rarely generate enough fold equity. He could bet/fold a lot of marginal overcards which are worse than yours, but it's not necessary to bluff a fish. Moreover, you'll find it hard to get out of the hand with a raise, it commits you as you can't rule out that he'll go all-in with overcards or hands like pocket pairs. There's easily enough equity for that.

Still, what happens if Villain checks? In the example above we were reluctant to bet/fold, although in this spot it makes more sense.

For one thing you can almost see the bet as a value bet, as Villain can easily check/call overcards in the hope of having six outs.

The second point is the bluff aspect: if you check behind and Villain barrels on the turn, it won't be a bluff bet as frequently as with the opponents above. Even a check raise from a player like this is rarely a bluff.

That's why bet/fold isn't painful here, the line bet flop (for value) and check behind turn should be a good one in this spot.

You're a preflop aggressor out of position

PartyPoker $25 NL Hold'em (6-handed)

Stacks & Stats
UTG ($25)
MP ($25)
CO ($25)
BU ($25) (21 / 15 / 2.5 / 59 / 10) (VPIP / PFR / AF / ft3-bet / 4-bet)
Hero ($25)
BB ($25)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A , K
3 folds, BU raises $1.00, Hero raises to $3.50, 1 fold, BU calls $3.50

Flop: ($7.25) 4, 4, 7 (2 players)
Hero...

These are generally not nice spots, but there's not a lot you can do about it. If your opponent calls in position, something lots of players like to do, you've got a problematic spot.

Which lines can you play?

• check/fold
• check raise
• check/call
• bet/fold
• bet/call (depending on the odds)
• bet/3-bet

Check/fold seems too weak here in principle, the equity analysis above is also applicable here (while Villain's calling range naturally changes a bit).

Check/call in the sense of way ahead / way behind could make sense, although you give up the initiative and arrive at some very tricky spots out of position on the turn, where you can barely tell where you actually stand.

A check raise on the other hand would be a plausible option. If you fold spots like this now and then (for example with a hand like 67s without any outs), you could check raise as a bluff. It goes without saying that if you turn your hand into a bluff, a worse hand won't go broke here. However, it's very possible that Villain will bet/fold hands such as small or medium pocket pairs and AK.

In the same way he can bet his bluffs, for example AQ or the suited connectors. This means you only have one bluff to fold, however you cash his bluff bet and have ultimately collected the dead money as well.

In the worst case scenario, that is in the event that Villain shoves over your raise, you clearly have a call. Generally this will be the range 77+, although the odd bluff can't be ruled out. You just barely get 20% equity, however with a normal raise, you're as good as committed with this. Moreover, there's always a bluff or two in Villain's range, you can't rule out 66 or AK here. You shouldn't raise/fold to this hand.

However, this is a variance rich line and should primarily be chosen if you also want to work on balancing and your image. Nonetheless, this line will be +EV against a lot of opponents.

It goes without saying that a bet can generally be used instead of a check. In this case it should be clear that Villain will not fold a lot on a flop like this. He'll call a lot of made hands in way ahead / way behind mode (for example pocket pairs), play some hands as a semi-bluff (good overcards) and call some hands in the hope of floating (for example the suited connectors).

Bluff raises are conceivable here, however, a push from you will get little fold equity. In most cases you see a call here, the line on the turn should be the 2nd barrel in most cases. If it doesn't help you to sell a strong hand on the flop, then you have to use your aggression. Next to floats and overcards, some pocket pairs will also fold on the 2nd barrel, especially as the turn will probably bring some really good cards for you (for example T-Q). Villain can't do much else with his pocket pairs than fold the hand.

Due to the fact that this kind of paired board is called most frequently (for various reasons), the line b/f flop and b/f turn is very suitable (always bear in mind that you can also hit your six outs on the turn).

A check raise would be a nice line here, as long as you see Villain lightly bluffing and also think that he can bet/fold marginal hands and doesn't often expect a move from a check/raise on your behalf (then a check raise line can also be considered in the future, naturally with strong hands).

Check/call is not a problem mathematically, although it belies a lot of difficulties on the turn. If you think you have the skills and know the Villain really well (at least, his betting behaviour), this is a conceivable option. Check/fold however is out. 

LINKS
Related articles: Overcards in 3-Bet Pots (1) - Your Equity Overcards in 3-Bet Pots (2) - General Observations Overcards in 3-Bet Pots (4) - Possible Plays without the Initiative