Bet Turn for Free Showdown (3) - Without the Initiative
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After the previous part of this column introduced you to spots in which you could 2nd barrel the turn with the initiative, we will now focus our attention on situations in which you are on the turn and can choose between a free card and a value bet after your opponent checked the turn.
What has happened so far
Again there are different things that might have happened so far.
- Villain raises preflop, contibets the flop and checks the turn.
- Villain raises preflop, checks the flop and checks the turn.
- Unraised pot, Villain checks twice.
We will not examine scenarios that involve an unraised pot here, since they are too marginal and too varied (in most situations, Villain will not have a hand and check/fold). We will therefore put our focus on the raised pot.
How can we describe Situation 2? Villain checks the flop and you check behind. With which hands would you do that and then bet on the turn? Mainly with hands that improved on the turn, otherwise you would already have value bet the flop. This distinct spot exists, but its general characteristics are very similar to those of Case 1.
Therefore we will only analyse spots that deal with the first case. The basic ideas of the analysis can of course be transferred to other situations.
Prerequisites
Many spots were already discussed in the second part of this column, namely those where you had the initiative. The structure of the board and the opponent structure do not change much, so we are now going to put more focus on actually predicting what will happen on the river, an aspect that was neglected in Part 2. In addition to that, we will have a look at the various ranges.
Options on the turn
Which scenarios could occur on the turn? If your opponent is the preflop aggressor and makes another bet, you can choose between a fold, a call down or a raise (as a bluff or for value).
If your opponent checks, you can take the free card or make a bet (as a bluff or for value).
If you bluff bet here, you are floating. Hands that can be considered a pure bluff or a semi-bluff are not part of this analysis. You should always keep in mind though, that even weak top pairs or middle pairs will at least have 5 outs to improve to a better hand on the river (2 outs for trips, 3 outs for two pair). However, this is only a small extra bonus.
Villain now checks the turn to you and the question is: Why is he doing that?
PartyPoker $25 NL Hold'em (6-handed)
Stacks & Stats
UTG ($25)
MP ($25)
CO ($25) (25/15/1.5/26/69/40/2) (VPIP/PFR/AF/WTS/CbetFlop/CbetTurn/c-rTurn)
Hero ($25)
SB ($25)
BB ($25)
Preflop: Hero is BU with 8
, 7
2 folds, CO raises $1.00, Hero calls $1.00, 2 folds
Flop: ($2.35) 2
, 7
, T (2 players)
CO bets $1.50, Hero calls
Turn: ($5.35) T (2 players)
CO checks, Hero...
What does the check tell you? You don't have to worry about your hand too much, it certainly fares well, but you will rarely have a clear value bet. On the other hand, your hand will be vulnerable if the river brings over-cards.
Our main question is: Can Villain bluff the river often enough for a profitable call there?
Looking at his river stats is mandatory every time. On the turn, you see a rather low check/raise stat, and you also know that your opponent "only" fires a 2nd barrel in 40% of cases on the turn.
If you decide to make a thin value bet here, you also have to expect that your opponent might just check/call with a lot of hands. Which can you think of? 66? 55? 89? AJ?
It is legimitate to doubt that these hands would check/call the turn, instead they might fire a 2nd barrel or, every now and then, check/fold on the turn. There is a big danger that stronger hands will switch into way ahead - way behind mode, such as JJ+, 88-99, weak Tx. And don't forget: You can never completely rule out traps.
Therefore, it's not easy to analyse such a spot. What would you do with a hand such as 89s? Will your opponent expect you to float and could he make a light call? If that's the case, the above mentioned hands could definitely be in his range, even a check/call with AJ+ cannot be ruled out if he puts you on pure bluffs, straight draws, weaker over-cards, etc. often enough.
If your opponent folds the over-cards, you can live with that. You gave him the opportunity to call (and therefore make a mistake). If he folds them, he gives up his equity and you directly win the pot with the best hand.
What you definitely don't want to happen is a (bluff) check/raise from Villain, which is why you always have to take a look at this stat. If it's a small one-digit figure, he is not likely to do it with many weak draws (such as over-cards).
Therefore, you can bet here. But what happens if you check?
The likelihood of river bluffs
You will often hear about choosing between a bet for free showdown and a check behind for bluff induce. This seems to imply that not to bet a pair on the turn (for whatever reason) automatically means you have to call a river bet. However, this would not make much sense.
Not only the question which hands Villain could call on the turn is decisive, but also which he bluffs on the river (turns into a bluff) or even if he is able to bet weaker made hands for value.
Keep in mind that you are giving out the free card on the turn and there are many ugly river cards that would confront you with a tough decision.
PartyPoker $25 NL Hold'em (6-handed)
Stacks & Stats
UTG ($25)
MP ($25)
CO ($25) (25/15/1.5/26/69/40/2) (VPIP/PFR/AF/WTS/CbetFlop/CbetTurn/c-rTurn)
Hero ($25)
SB ($25)
BB ($25)
Preflop: Hero is BU with 8 , 7
2 folds, CO raises $1.00, Hero calls $1.00, 2 folds
Flop: ($2.35) 2, 7, T (2 players)
CO bets $1.50, Hero calls
Turn: ($5.35) T (2 players)
CO checks, Hero checks
River: ($5.35) A (2 players)
This spot confronts you with a number of problems. You generally don't like the ace, because your opponent can often have it (irrespective of whether Villain wanted to c/f or c/c Ax on the turn).
If you get a river bet now, you usually have to fold, unless you know something specific about his river tendencies that indicates otherwise.
However, it should also be clear that if your opponent checks, you will check as well. On the river, you can no longer make up for the value bet that you missed out on on the turn. You already have to be aware of this on the turn.
PartyPoker $25 NL Hold'em (6-handed)
Stacks & Stats
UTG ($25)
MP ($25)
CO ($25) (25/15/1.5/26/69/40/2) (VPIP/PFR/AF/WTS/CbetFlop/CbetTurn/c-rTurn)
Hero ($25)
SB ($25)
BB ($25)
Preflop: Hero is BU with 8 , 7
2 folds, CO raises $1.00, Hero calls $1.00, 2 folds
Flop: ($2.35) 2, 7, T (2 players)
CO bets $1.50, Hero calls
Turn: ($5.35) T (2 players)
CO checks, Hero checks
River: ($5.35) 5 (2 players)
CO bets $4.50, Hero...
It would be ideal if the river brought a blank. Can you simply call this bet now? One basic principle goes as follows: "Your opponents always bluff less often than you think they are".
After a swift analysis you might think that he is bluffing over-cards or 89, and you therefore have a light call. But why did he not bet these hands on the turn, where he would signal more strength, where he has more pot equity with these hands and where he has another chance to bluff (on the river)?
What did your opponent have in mind with these hands (AJ-AK, 89, 66-, crap) on the turn?
Does your check behind on the turn signal so much weakness that your opponent feels forced to bluff, no matter what? Will he not keep on playing a lot of hands in c/f mode and just give up, while he value bets strong to medium strong hands on the river?
River aggression
Time for a short digression - let's talk about the River AF.
In such spots, river bets are too often interpreted as bluffs. To legitimise this suspicion, the players refer to the River AF of the opponent; if this stat is very high, he has to be bluffing often.
However, you should keep in mind that a high river AF can also be due to a passive turn play. A high river AF can be caused by many missed value bets on the turn or by slow playing, and it does not automatically mean that the opponent bluffs every trash hand.
Opponents who check/raise a lot
Especially problematic are opponents who play very aggressively and often want to check/raise the turn, especially if they often put you on floats.
PartyPoker $25 NL Hold'em (6-handed)
Stacks & Stats
UTG ($25)
MP ($25)
CO ($25) (27/24/3.9/25/67/53/11) (VPIP/PFR/AF/WTS/CbetFlop/CbetTurn/c-rTurn)
Hero ($25)
SB ($25)
BB ($25)
Preflop: Hero is BU with 6 , 6
2 folds, CO raises $1.00, Hero calls $1.00, 2 folds
Flop: ($2.35) 5, 5, 9 (2 players)
CO bets $1.50, Hero calls
Turn: ($5.35) T (2 players)
CO checks, Hero ...
You are again faced with several problems in this spot: Not only do you see your opponent check/raise in many cases, you also think that your opponent will only rarely check/call here.
This player is aggressive and will very rarely call if you bet. In 53% of cases, he makes a bet himself. In 11% of cases, he check/raises. There are 36% left, and a major part of this percentage will probably consist of the line check/fold.
This makes a value bet very difficult, since you can barely expect that a weaker hand will call out of position. And it is particularly the weaker hands, against which you see yourself ahead, that he can turn into a bluff and check/raise with. He will neither check/call over-cards nor small pocket pairs here, but either give them up or try to turn them into a bluff.
If you understand this aspect and cannot classify a turn bet as a value bet, you should check behind. On the river, you will be confronted with bluffs more often however, because Villain's range for a bluff check/raise still exists on the turn. This means you could very well play check behind turn, call river in this spot, unless it is an ugly card.
| » SUMMARY |
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Especially when you are playing without the initiative, it is not so easy to place value bets, since most thinking players won't play in check/call mode with very weak hands out of position (and with the initiative). You do need to ask yourself if weaker hands can really find a call here or if a check behind for bluff induce could be a good choice as well. The more aggressive your opponent, the better it may be to play passively and to induce bluffs. However, you should pay more attention to reads and not let many (partly unreliable or falsely interpreted) stats influence you. |
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