River Value Bets (2) - In Position as PFA

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River Value Bets (2) – In Position as PFA

by MiiWiin

In the previous part you got to know the basics of value bets on the river. You've seen that you shouldn't make it so easy for yourself, that you need to recognise your opponent's range, that you need more than 50% equity against his calling range and that you should name at least three weaker hands which could call, straight away.

Today is about spots in position in each of which you're a preflop aggressor with an acceptable hand.

What's happened up to now?

In part one of this column, there was a point that could limit the extent of betting: pot size.

As mentioned there, this is not a decisive criterion, however you need to ask yourself the question: how did the present pot size come about?

The thought process "medium strength hands, medium size pot" certainly has its justification here.

There are lots of ways that you could get to a river spot:

• You are the preflop aggressor and have double barreled
• You are the preflop aggressor but you checked behind on the turn
• Your opponent is the preflop aggressor and has bet all through up to now
• Your opponent is the preflop aggressor but checked the turn and the river

There are of course countless other possibilities. There may be unraised pots, there may have already been check raises or there may have only been checks postflop. However, these spots cannot be analysed by everyone.

PartyPoker $25 NL Hold'em (6-handed)

Stacks & Stats
UTG ($25)
MP ($25)
CO ($25)
Hero ($25)
SB ($25)
BB ($25) (15/10/1.2/3) [VPIP / PFR / AF / 3-bet]

Preflop: Hero is BU with
3 folds, Hero raises $0.75, 1 folds, BB calls $0.75

Flop: ($1.60) (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $1.20, BB calls $1.20

Turn: ($4.00) (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $3.00, BB calls $3.00

River: ($10.00) (2 players)
BB checks, Hero...

This spot is similar to the example from the first part:

Your opponent is generally tight: The advantage for you is that you can analyse his range really easily. This player doesn't call a lot preflop, however calling twice out of position looks more like a made hand but one that doesn't want to have too much action.

What can Villain be holding on the River?

• Preflop a passive defend on his part is possible with AJ or KJs. Postflop play would be appropriate.
• A few combinations QQ (3) are conceivable, postflop play is also possible.
• Sets and two pairs are possible, as is 67s (even if he won't call it OOP very often). However, these hands should bring action on the flop or on the turn. Instead of his traps (JJ, 55, 44, 54s - now counterfeited - 67s), all combinations of 55 are selected here.
• Flush draws: Villain calls neither too many suited connectors/aces OOP, nor does he need to play this check/call twice (due to a lack of implied odds). You can limit yourself to , , and .
• Marginal hands: Villain can rarely be holding middle pairs here, instead you can give him all combinations of 99. Hands such as A5s or 56s may be theoretically possible but they don't have to be assumed with this opponent.

Equity analysis
Board
	Equity	Win	Split	Loss	Hand
Player 1	87.5%	87.5%	0%	12.5%
Player 2	12.5%	12.5%	0%	87.5%	99, 55, AJs, KJs, AJo,, , , , ,

What else can this player call?

It will be hard for him to still let go of Jx here. Instead, take all AJ combinations, while KJ is out.

He'll generally call his three QQ combinations, he'll still let go of a few of his 99 combinations, he may call two out of six combinations again.

Logically, the flush draws will give up (at least, they won't check/call), 55 will probably check raise.

Equity analysis
Board
	Equity	Win	Split	Loss	Hand
Player 1	78.57%	78.57%	0%	21.43%
Player 2	21.43%	21.43%	0%	78.57%	55, AJs, AJo, , , , ,

This is a clear value bet under any circumstances.

You can use the "three hand rule" here too: hands such as AJ, KJ and maybe QQ are possible. However, there are few "sensible" better hands.

PartyPoker $25 NL Hold'em (6-handed)

Stacks & Stats
UTG ($25)
MP ($25)
CO ($25)
Hero ($25)
SB ($25)
BB ($25) (22/17/2.9/6) [VPIP / PFR / AF / 3-bet]

Preflop: Hero is BU with
3 folds, Hero raises $0.75, 1 fold, BB calls $0.75

Flop: ($1.60) (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $1.20, BB calls $1.20

Turn: ($4.00) (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks

River: ($4.00) (2 players)
BB checks, Hero...

You decided to check behind on the turn. Your opponent is aggressive but based on first impressions, doesn't seem to be a calling station.

You may have expected a river bluff, however your opponent checks again. Before we start speculating about ranges here, you need to be aware that you've both given a lot away.

It's no surprise that you bet this flop. You may have hit a top pair and bet this perfect flop. Your opponent however check/calls OOP. So he may either be holding a made hand, which may be played way ahead - way behind or he wants to trap. In some cases he can't be holding anything and will want to bluff on upcoming streets.

At least your opponent doesn't want to float. He checks again and thus cements the story that he's holding a hand that may easily take the showdown. An attempt at bluff check raise is still possible, however this is less frequent than you might expect.

You check now as well, as it's only a raised pot, you'll generally have to bet with a strong hand to build up the pot. Your check behind most resembles what it is here: a check with a marginal hand for pot control.

Villain checks again. He'll rarely or never have just a bluff and try to check raise the river. Of course, nothing's ruled out, however it will just occur too seldom here.

So your opponent is either holding a marginal hand, which would consider calling a bet on your part. He'll put you on a weak Ax, middle pairs such as JJ-KK, possibly Tx and now and again, traps (although rarely, as already mentioned).

Nonetheless, he is not of the opinion that that he could make a value bet himself. Hands such as AQ and AJ should really bet against this range.

Villain will regularly have Ax or middle pairs. Tx hands which hit on the river are also very possible, however now they want to check raise for value. 55 can more or less be ruled out, without reads, Villain will have to make the action himself.

After these considerations, the question is what's his range?

Now and then he plays AJ so passively, JTs and T9s are possible (aiming to trap) and middle pairs such as 77-99, now and then JJ (QQ+ would certainly get 3-betted preflop).

Weak suited aces are possible: A7s, As4s. If he's hit a two pair, then the assumption is once again that he will have to bet against your obvious range. As suited aces heavily affect your equity and aren't very probable (this opponent will not call every suited ace OOP), we only take A2s instead. 

So he has the following river:

Equity analysis
Board
	Equity	Win	Split	Loss	Hand
Player 1	79.31%	79.31%	0%	20.69%
Player 2	20.69%	20.69%	0%	79.31%	JJ, 77-99, AJs, A2s, JTs, T9s

The big question now is: what will this player still call?

AJ and A2s with certainty, as well as Tx of course (he's likely to run out on a check raise).

It's hard to judge what this player will do with JJ and 99-77. From the street analysis above, we can derive the statement: “check behind on the turn and bet on the river is rarely a bluff“. Villain can call jacks again here, they represent all middle pairs. This player will call 99-77 too rarely.

Equity analysis
Board
	Equity	Win	Split	Loss	Hand
Player 1	57.14%	57.14%	0%	42.86%
Player 2	42.86%	42.86%	0%	57.14%	JJ, AJs, A2s, JTs, T9s

It's getting pretty stifling!

What happens if you give him two traps as well (two combinations 55)?

Equity analysis
Board
	Equity	Win	Split	Loss	Hand
Player 1	50%	50%	0%	50%
Player 2	50%	50%	0%	50%	JJ, AJs, A2s, JTs, T9s, ,

This has now become a break even story. If you now take the missing rake into account for a bet on your part, the bet would be -EV here.

This makes it a very tight spot. All the information should come together here as well, including the previously mentioned future EV. Do you want to take into account that your opponent sees how you play a weak Ax hand? Can you potentially use this line as a bluff in one of the upcoming spots because your opponent has seen that you also play top pairs in this way?

In this spot, there's no right or wrong answer to the question of whether you should value bet or not.

Bet sizes

As well as the decision as to whether you should bet for value, the question of how high you value bet is also important. This slight digression must be allowed here.

In contrast to the previous streets, lots of aspects don't apply here:

• You don't have to protect against anything.
• The odds you can give your opponent can be very good for him.
• Ultimately, he should call with a weaker hands.

That's why there are other questions on the river:

• Can Villain call the hands you give him with the odds you give him?
• Can you potentially induce something with a bet?
• Is your bet balanced?

However, the effect of balancing shouldn't be overestimated. In example 2, the bet size hardly needs to be balanced, as the ranges are simply very clearly defined.

PartyPoker $25 NL Hold'em (6-handed)

Stacks & Stats
UTG ($25)
MP ($25)
CO ($25)
Hero ($25)
SB ($25)
BB ($25) (22/17/2.9/6) [VPIP / PFR / AF / 3-bet]

Preflop: Hero is BU with
3 folds, Hero raises $0.75, 1 folds, BB calls $0.75

Flop: ($1.60) (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $1.20, BB calls $1.20

Turn: ($4.00) (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks

River: ($4.00) (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $2.50, BB...

A normal bet size, roughly tending towards a 2/3 pot size, is a good default here. You want to call A2s and JJ again (in accordance with the range given above), for this you need passable odds.

AJs and the strong hands will call anyway (or check raise).

PartyPoker $25 NL Hold'em (6-handed)

Stacks & Stats
UTG ($25)
MP ($25)
CO ($25)
Hero ($25)
SB ($25)
BB ($25) (15/10/1.2/3) [VPIP / PFR / AF / 3-bet]

Preflop: Hero is BU with
3 folds, Hero raises $0.75, 1 fold, BB calls $0.75

Flop: ($1.60) (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $1.20, BB calls $1.20

Turn: ($4.00) (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $3.00, BB calls $3.00

River: ($10.00) (2 players)
BB checks, Hero...

A slightly smaller bet size is sufficient here. You know that Villain could be sitting on hands such as KJs, you might scare him off with too high a bet. In addition, the pot is already bigger, so a ½ pot size bet is sufficient, or if in doubt, a little higher. $5.50 would be good value, with this, Villain will usually find a call with his weak hands.

Bet sizes provide the explainations in examples, that's why in the upcoming parts, they will be referred to again and again.

LINKS
Related articles: River Value Bets (1) - Basics River Value Bets (3) - In Position without Initiative River Value Bets (4) - Out of Position River Value Bets (5) - Exception Spots Quiz: Value Bets IP vs. Tight Opponent Quiz: Value Bets IP vs. Calling Station