You should lead more when ICM is signifcant
Chip leaders should donk lead more post flop when at final tables or on bubble, which we have discovered thanks to GTO Wizard.
In the self study series Barry Carter shows you how he tried to solve a poker problem then consults a coach or solver to get feedback on his method.
I have been playing around with the new post flop ICM feature from GTO Wizard a lot lately, and this week I have been looking at leading.
Spoiler alert, there are a lot of spots in ICM where the BB should lead where they never do it in ChipEV scenarios. Let's jump into an example to explore this further.
The stacks are 30bb effective, UTG has opened and the BB has called. The flop is J♥9♦8♦.
In ChipEV world this is a 100% check:
When the BB does check, UTG bets 100% of the time:
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No big surprise, UTG has significant range advantage and nutted advantage here. They have 62% equity overall which is a big advantage, they hit this flop often and hard.
Let's switch things up now so that it's the exact same spot, but with six remaining at a final table. The effective stacks are still 30bbs, but the BB has 60bbs, so they cover UTG easily.
This is the new BB first action:
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The BB is still at an equity disadvantage, but they now can lead 9% of the time, with made hands and draws. This is perhaps mostly because when they check now, this is what UTG does:
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UTG has gone from range betting to betting less than half the time. This is because there are plenty of nutted hands in the BB's range and they want to avoid a confrontation that would lead to elimination. The BB is leading, therefore, to mostly avoid check backs. This is the UTG response to the lead:
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There is no raising, but there is also very little folding. The lead is not designed to get folds, it is to get value. The BB has to take the initiative because UTG is so hamstrung by ICM they will C-bet half as much.
I've played around with a lot of different scenarios and the only commonality I have found is that leads happen when the in-position player would check back a lot of the time when checked to. In this case, they only check back because of the ICM pressure but the same is true in Chip EV spots on boards with lots of checkbacks.
Practically I have also found that leads as the chip leader get more folds in low-stakes games when ICM is significant, so another reason to put it in your arsenal.
Previous self study articles
- Playing against disconnected players
- Overbetting with Ace King
- Why do we check back with Range Advantage?
- Why do I turn top pair into a bluff?
- How I use ICMIZER
- How wide can we go with Antes?
- Why can we bluff missed straight draws more than missed flush draws?
- How to play a strong underpair on a wet board
- How to play a 15BB stack
- How often does Villain have an Ace?
- Why do we not check/raise with the nut flush draw?
- Why do we bet small on the turn?
- When do we open shove the flop?
- The difference between SB and BB defends
- Blocker/Unblocker
- How to pick your bluffs
- When NOT to bluff a big draw
- Which hands over realise equity?
- When to check to induce bluffs on the river?
- What do we do when the check/raise backfires?
- The let's keep it friendly bet
- Post flop ICM analysis
- How do bounties change post flop strategy?
- Is ICM a thing straight after late reg?
How do you study away from the tables? Let us know in the comments:
