Playing against calling stations on the bubble

Should you play like a nit against calling stations when you get to the bubble and risk elimination?

In the self study series Barry Carter shows you how he tried to solve a poker problem then consults a coach or solver to get feedback on his method.

I have been playing around with the new post flop ICM feature from GTO Wizard a lot lately, and this week wanted to share one of the big takeways, which is about calling stations. 

A lot of people think that if you are covered in ICM extreme situations and are quite short stacked, you should play tighter against stations. The logic goes that you will only bluff yourself out of the tournament, as a lot of your equity is in making people fold, which you can't do in this situation. 

Let's test this assumption out. The situation is a bubble of a 1,000 runner MTT. We are the HJ with just 17bbs, we open and the BB with 67bbs calls. The average stack is 40bbs, so we are well under average, so the min cash means a lot to us. 

The flop is Q72 rainbow. In GTO world the BB checks 100% of the time. This is the HJ first action:

Despite the ICM pressure, this is a range bet. UTG has such a tight range and this flop is very hard to hit. They have 69.6% equity, so this is still a range bet. 

This is the response to the 20% bet. 

The BB has a lot of junk, most of which they fold on the flop. Even the HJ's bluffs are beating a lot of this range. 

What if we node locked so that the BB never folded Ace high or King high? This is the response from the HJ:

The strategy does not change. Despite the ICM pressure, the HJ has such range advantage that they risk elimination to get value. 

Let's try a different flop, 832 rainbow. Again the BB checks all the time, this is what the HJ does:

Now we have a mix of actions, including some shoves. This is a much more polarised scenario, so we check a lot more. 

In response to the common bet size of 20%, this is what the BB does:

Not much folding because it's a small bet and most hands can improve in some way on a flop like this, in that they can make pairs that can pull ahead of some hands. 

What happens when we make the BB never fold in this spot, they call all the junk too and occasionally raise it? 

This is the new first response from the HJ:

Now the betting frequency has come down, as has the bet size. This is to be conservative and preserve chips when we are behind, but it is also for value. The BB is overcalling the small bet size, so we do it more often. If the BB overcalled a larger size, it would increase the big bet range. 

It is true that eventually, you have to stop betting if your opponent is calling too much when you are covered on the bubble. However, the first instinct should be to increase your betting frequency against calling stations, especially if you have a strong range. 

Previous self study articles

• Playing against disconnected players
• Overbetting with Ace King
• Why do we check back with Range Advantage?
• Why do I turn top pair into a bluff?
• How I use ICMIZER
• How wide can we go with Antes?
• Why can we bluff missed straight draws more than missed flush draws?
• How to play a strong underpair on a wet board
• How to play a 15BB stack
• How often does Villain have an Ace?
• Why do we not check/raise with the nut flush draw?
• Why do we bet small on the turn?
• When do we open shove the flop?
• The difference between SB and BB defends
• Blocker/Unblocker
• How to pick your bluffs
• When NOT to bluff a big draw
• Which hands over realise equity?
• When to check to induce bluffs on the river?
• What do we do when the check/raise backfires?
• The let's keep it friendly bet
• Post flop ICM analysis
• How do bounties change post flop strategy? 
• Is ICM a thing straight after late reg?

How do you study away from the tables? Let us know in the comments: